Pakistan's recent procurement of the first in a series of eight advanced Hangor-class submarines from China represents a strategic shift in the underwater balance of power within the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. Analysts and former Indian military officials highlight a mounting capability gap in India's underwater defense domain, particularly in light of China's growing regional presence.
Beijing's supply of these submarines to Pakistan is viewed by analysts as a means of strategically pressuring India, a development likely to accelerate India's efforts to bolster its naval capabilities. The Hangor-class submarines possess technological advantages over India's highest-performing Kalvari-class (Scorpène-class) vessels, including air-independent propulsion (AIP) and advanced sensor arrays.
Former Chief of Naval Staff for India, Admiral Arun Prakash, emphasizes the significance of AIP technology, noting that conventional submarines equipped with AIP have a distinct edge, and India currently lacks any submarines with this capability. He contrasts this with nuclear-attack submarines, which, although comparable to AIP-equipped submarines, generate significant noise and are more easily detected. India does possess nuclear submarines, but these are designed for ballistic missile deployment and not routine patrol operations.
The Hangor-class submarines boast significantly greater underwater endurance, potentially remaining submerged for up to 14 days compared to the typical 48-hour endurance of other diesel-powered vessels. India's current fleet of 16 conventional submarines faces challenges, with only six recently assessed as operational and many nearing decommissioning. Pakistan's submarine force, in contrast, will see its total number of AIP-equipped vessels reach 11 with the inclusion of the Hangor-class submarines.
India is exploring options for retrofitting existing vessels with AIP systems or integrating this technology into future submarine classes. However, Admiral Prakash estimates it could take seven to ten years before India possesses its own AIP-equipped submarines. To address this gap, the Indian Navy is in discussions with German and Spanish shipbuilders under Project 75-I, a program to construct at least six submarines with AIP technology.
Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar (Ret.), director of the Society for Policy Studies, stresses the urgent need for India to comprehensively enhance its underwater warfare capabilities, emphasizing the importance of integrated sensor networks and other assets vital to underwater domain awareness.
China's steadily expanding influence within the Indian Ocean is a key factor driving these developments. Analysts believe that the provision of advanced submarines to Pakistan is a strategic element in China's efforts to establish a greater military presence in the region. Professor C. Raja Mohan of the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore highlights China's nearly two-decade-long trajectory of increased activity within the Indian Ocean, including the establishment of its first logistical base in Djibouti.
This rising presence aligns with Beijing's aggressive naval modernization, dramatically expanding its fleet. Experts anticipate an increased number of Chinese warships, research vessels, and aircraft deployed to the Indian Ocean. Pakistan and China's longstanding strategic relationship further underscores the situation, with Professor Mohan noting that, although China hasn't established a formal military base in Pakistan, there is ongoing speculation about the Chinese Navy enjoying special access to the ports of Karachi and Gwadar, the latter of which is involved in submarine construction.
India's extensive coastline, peninsular geography, and proximity to the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal make these developments a direct security concern. Professor Baljit Singh of the University of Jammu emphasizes China's use of Pakistan as a proxy to project power into the Indian Ocean due to China's relative distance from the region. This strategy is underscored by China's position as Pakistan's top arms supplier, as documented by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Commodore Bhaskar (Ret.) further notes that China's provision of underwater platforms to Bangladesh adds complexity to India's security equation within both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. He stresses the need for India to significantly increase investment in its navy to meet these mounting regional challenges.
