Additional 36 Rafale Jets Order Not an Option for India as Dassault's Production Backlog May Cause Delays

India's ambitions to bolster its air power with an additional 36 Rafale fighter jets may be facing a significant hurdle. A recent report indicates that Dassault Aviation, the French manufacturer of the Rafale, is grappling with a substantial production backlog, potentially delaying deliveries to India by 6-7 years.

This situation presents a stark contrast to the 2016 deal, where the Indian Air Force (IAF) received its first Rafales within four years of the agreement. Dassault currently has orders for approximately 180 Rafale jets from countries including Egypt, Greece, the UAE, and Indonesia. The company's production line, currently producing about two jets per month to deliver roughly 20 annually, is struggling to keep pace with this demand.

While this measured production rate ensures quality and maintains standards, it poses a challenge for fulfilling a new Indian order promptly. The 2016 contract, completed in just 36 months, benefited from Dassault's focused production capacity at the time. However, the current backlog creates a queue, making it difficult to accommodate a similar timeframe for India without significant investment in production infrastructure or new manufacturing lines.

The IAF has consistently emphasized the need to augment its squadron strength with more Rafales to maintain modern combat and deterrence capabilities. A follow-on order would not only reinforce India's air superiority in the region but also allow the IAF to maintain fleet commonality, streamlining logistics and operations. The Rafale has already demonstrated its value in Indian service, with its advanced air-to-air combat readiness and precision strike capabilities.

If Dassault cannot accelerate its production, India may face strategic consequences in terms of defence preparedness, especially given the increasing importance of high-performance platforms to counter regional threats. As a potential alternative, the IAF could explore interim solutions like leasing options or accelerating indigenous fighter programs such as the LCA Tejas and AMCA to fulfill its fleet requirements.

Furthermore, France and India might negotiate production prioritization or explore the possibility of establishing additional assembly or maintenance lines in India. Such initiatives would align with the "Make in India" strategy and potentially pave the way for co-production, technology transfer, and industrial collaboration.

 

[sanket]

Dassault First Target is to deliver 26 Rafale M within 3 year after signing the deal i.e 36 months I always said even well established Foreign OEM too took Time to deliver First Jet after signing the deal while HAL have kept Ready Tejas MK1A in March 2024 But GE fail to deliver Engines ,second all 36 Rafales were delivered within 66 months Now Just count the rate of Production second 2 jets per month production & 20 annually or 24 ..........???? HAL too Expected to have have similar order back log (83+97 follow-on Tejas MK1A ) If France agree for Local Producttion of Rafale then MRFA may automatically get cancel & Not only for domestic requirement Dassault can even Export same to world over .Dassault can split the order with two production Line One in France & second in Bharat Earlier Dassault was unwilling to start production line with pvt players of bharat, Positive Impact may b seen after 26 Rafale M Deal signed between Bharat & France , then co-production of Rafale jets to b mfg in Bharat may b considered seriously by Dassault with Eco-system & sourcing components locally this will make foundation for 114 MRFA order or may b MRFA may scrap if Dassault start production Line in Bharat.

 

[PKPRS]

Dassault First Target is to deliver 26 Rafale M within 3 year after signing the deal i.e 36 months I always said even well established Foreign OEM too took Time to deliver First Jet after signing the deal while HAL have kept Ready Tejas MK1A in March 2024 But GE fail to deliver Engines ,second all 36 Rafales were delivered within 66 months Now Just count the rate of Production second 2 jets per month production & 20 annually or 24 ..........???? HAL too Expected to have have similar order back log (83+97 follow-on Tejas MK1A ) If France agree for Local Producttion of Rafale then MRFA may automatically get cancel & Not only for domestic requirement Dassault can even Export same to world over .Dassault can split the order with two production Line One in France & second in Bharat Earlier Dassault was unwilling to start production line with pvt players of bharat, Positive Impact may b seen after 26 Rafale M Deal signed between Bharat & France , then co-production of Rafale jets to b mfg in Bharat may b considered seriously by Dassault with Eco-system & sourcing components locally this will make foundation for 114 MRFA order or may b MRFA may scrap if Dassault start production Line in Bharat.

Impossible, our 26 will go behind 236 in the Queue, fake article, Dassault made only 13 Rafale’s in 2023, this year only 12, next 2 Year’s they are anticipating to make only 10/year due to supply chain issues and from 2027 onwards they are planning to increase the production rate gradually and that too depend on supply chain situation, making 3/month is a total BS and PR stunt to dupe India and is far from reality,

 

[sanket]

Impossible, our 26 will go behind 236 in the Queue, fake article, Dassault made only 13 Rafale’s in 2023, this year only 12, next 2 Year’s they are anticipating to make only 10/year due to supply chain issues and from 2027 onwards they are planning to increase the production rate gradually and that too depend on supply chain situation, making 3/month is a total BS and PR stunt to dupe India and is far from reality,

Mark My word 26 Rafale M deal may havepositive impact on Dassault to consider starting co-production Line in Bharat with Local Pvt players, Dassault will take Long term vision of making Bharat mfg Hub for Rafale apart from 114 MRFA order Making it strong & unbeatable contender Plus France dont want to Miss opportunity From Engine development to other defence opportunity Already Safran having Helo Engine development with HAL From Rafale co-production Line , 114 Fighter jet under Make in India , MRO , AMCA Engine development consultant for AMCA Jet plus TEDBF Jet its a Game set Match for France & Take Revenge of AUKUS deal

 

[M S Chatterji]

Good opportunity for Dassault to open a manufacturing line in India. That will get them 114 fighter contract.

 

[PKPRS]

Mark My word 26 Rafale M deal may havepositive impact on Dassault to consider starting co-production Line in Bharat with Local Pvt players, Dassault will take Long term vision of making Bharat mfg Hub for Rafale apart from 114 MRFA order Making it strong & unbeatable contender Plus France dont want to Miss opportunity From Engine development to other defence opportunity Already Safran having Helo Engine development with HAL From Rafale co-production Line , 114 Fighter jet under Make in India , MRO , AMCA Engine development consultant for AMCA Jet plus TEDBF Jet its a Game set Match for France & Take Revenge of AUKUS deal

They won’t work with any Indian player either private or DPSU or share any tech , both are criteria in the new MRFA, also to start a production line in India, it will take a minimum of 3 years and they themselves said that they can only make 12/year, so to make 150 Rafale’s it will take 12.5 years @ 12/year, so in theory we will be receiving 4th gen jet’s till 2039, when some Countries will be getting 7th or even 8th gen jets, also when we start making a similar 4th gen jet Tejas in 2029 what is the point of making a expensive foreign 4th gen jet that is similar in capability, if at all we buy any foreign jet it should be only 5th gen jet and that too in very limited quantity to use against our enemies FC-31.

 

[divine]

Good opportunity for Dassault to open a manufacturing line in India. That will get them 114 fighter contract.

but it's Dassault's objective to find a third country capable of manufacturing the rafales. India and the UAE have been approached for a long time, but conditions must be met before they can be obtained.

 

[tipoo2]

How much would 20 (and some say realistically 36) billion dollars accelerate development and production of vastly more Tejas MK1As, MK2s, AMCA, and Netra MK1/MK2? With Dassault's backlog meaning jets would only be delivered into Tejas MK2 timeline and at least having prototypes ready for AMCA testing, what would it look like if we instead planned for much larger accelerated orders of Tejas MK2 and AMCA?

Just a highdea. It may also be worth a second look to see if the Su-57M is really ready this time and the next batches will come out with it, and if our Su-30 lines can be retooled to make that faster and more affordably than the Rafale if we do still need 2-3 interim squadrons despite any acceleration of indigenous and for an LO-ish strike corps. And before anyone says that has the same RCS as a clean Rafale, the Rafale also can't shoot anything clean can it, and external munitions trapping radar signals between them are one of the worst cases for radar return. The Su-57 gets flack for the S70 going haywire and needing to be shot down, but isn't it curious how close the Su-57 got to Ukraine unharmed when the western internet sphere says its stealth is junk.

 

[SURESH RAO]

Even if the crooked France agrees to set up a complete Rafale manufacturing unit in India (including the outdated Snecma 88 engine), it will take atleast 5 years to set up the plant and assembly units in India. After that the production starts.

And this crooked country will charge more per aircraft for Indian production.

 

[desigandu]

Dassault currently can’t deliver more than 12-13 Rafales per year based on actual stock market filings…Intent, claims and boasts don’t matter, only actual deliveries do!
Open tender on MRFA is also a joke as it will take at least 3-4 years to sign a deal, and another 3-4 years for delivery, which means 2032-2035, by which time Rafales, Eurofighter, Grippen, F18, F21; and F15 will be obsolete, as they can’t penetrate highly contested airspace’s, unless they stay far back as weapon trucks with Stealth and CCAs leading the charge…
I would recommend we use all our money, efforts, and power to push Tejas Mk2s, GE414 production, High Thrust engine and AMCA and cancel MRFA…Yes, we will be vulnerable, but will MRFA deliveries starting in 2032, solve our problems!
Facts not claims, with actual stock market filings or Government reports, not some CEO claiming that they will produce 3 per month will suffice…
Only LM delivers (per stock market filings) 125-156 F35s, per year, and there are over 1000 flying and another 2000 to be built - FACT…Russia and China are out for Bharat, so we are screwed…I know F35s are not on offer, are expensive, we have s400, they come with American strings but this is just FYI…
In any case we are not the decision makers and should let GOI, MOD, IAF decide what to do…

 

[What the heck]

co-production of Rafale jets to b mfg in Bharat may b considered seriously by Dassault with Eco-system & sourcing components locally this will make foundation for 114 MRFA order or may b MRFA may scrap if Dassault start production Line in Bharat.

Rafale’s Backlog, timeline and price are totally against it, with MOD’s $18Bln budget for MRFA, it is not feasible at all, locally made Rafale’s will be even lot more expensive than buying off the shelf from France.

 

[Sridhar]

Dassault First Target is to deliver 26 Rafale M within 3 year after signing the deal i.e 36 months I always said even well established Foreign OEM too took Time to deliver First Jet after signing the deal while HAL have kept Ready Tejas MK1A in March 2024 But GE fail to deliver Engines ,second all 36 Rafales were delivered within 66 months Now Just count the rate of Production second 2 jets per month production & 20 annually or 24 ..........?

You're missing a point here. Even without GE Engine delay TEJAS MK1 and MK1A are delayed by a good 2 decades put together. I have excluded 1.5 years due COVID 19 lockdown.
Why do you get worked out for delays which has never happened from DASSAULT. RAFALE M order is not officially signed yet Modalities are yet get finalised.

 

[R. Singh]

Govt of India must invite France to set up Dassault fighter jet making plant in India allowing 100% FDI ! Safran, THALES.MBDA and other firms should also come to set up complete fighter jet making ecosystem in India !