Recent shifts in the international defence market, spurred by US tariff policies and geopolitical realignments, could present India with a unique opportunity to rapidly acquire fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets.
The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, a highly advanced multirole combat aircraft, is facing potential order cancellations from several countries, potentially opening a door for India to bolster its air power.
The primary driver of these potential cancellations is the aggressive tariff policies enacted by the US administration under President Donald Trump, coupled with broader concerns about the reliability of the United States as a defence supplier and changing global strategic priorities. This has led several nations to reconsider their commitments to purchase the F-35.
Because the United States Air Force (USAF) is unlikely to acquire these export-specific versions of the aircraft, a disrupted supply chain could be advantageous for India, which has not yet committed to the F-35 program.
Several countries are reportedly re-evaluating their F-35 orders. These include:
- Canada: Canada finalized a deal to purchase 88 F-35A jets in 2023 for $19 billion, with deliveries scheduled to begin in 2026. However, a 25% tariff imposed by the US on Canadian goods in February 2025, citing border security and drug trafficking, has significantly strained relations. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has indicated the possibility of retaliatory measures, including a potential reduction or cancellation of the F-35 order. Analysts suggest a reduction of at least 50% is possible, potentially freeing up 44 aircraft.
- Portugal: Portugal had been considering buying up to 24 F-35As to replace its aging F-16 fleet. However, US tariff threats and concerns over President Trump's rhetoric regarding NATO have reportedly led Portugal to abandon these plans, favoring European alternatives like the Eurofighter Typhoon or Dassault Rafale.
- Turkey: Although not a recent change. Turkey's original order of 100 F-35As was canceled in 2019 after the country purchased the Russian S-400 air defence system. Despite Turkey's expressed interest in rejoining the program, the current US administration's stance and ongoing tariff disputes make this unlikely. These aircraft were already reallocated.
- Germany: Germany placed an order for 35 F-35As in 2022 to replace its Tornado aircraft, with deliveries planned from 2027. However, the threat of a 25% tariff on European Union goods, announced by the US in February 2025, has prompted discussions in Germany about prioritizing European defence projects. There is speculation that Germany could reduce its order by half (approximately 18 aircraft) or cancel it entirely in favor of the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
- Switzerland: Switzerland agreed to purchase 36 F-35As in 2021, with deliveries scheduled between 2027 and 2030. Growing public and political pressure, fueled by concerns about US reliability and tariff disputes, is threatening the entire order. A potential referendum on canceling the F-35 purchase in favor of a European option, such as the Rafale, is gaining momentum.
Lockheed Martin's F-35 production line is robust, having delivered over 1,100 aircraft globally by March 2025, with orders extending into the next decade. Specifically, the aircraft potentially affected by cancellations are:
- Canada: 88 ordered, with 44 potentially at risk. Production of the first batch began in 2024, meaning some aircraft may already be in assembly.
- Portugal: Up to 24 were planned, but none were in production. Their cancellation would free up future production slots.
- Germany: 35 ordered, with initial production beginning in 2025. A reduction or cancellation could affect 18-35 jets.
- Switzerland: 36 ordered, with production slated to increase in 2026. A full cancellation would release all 36.
- Turkey: While 100 were originally orderd, it has been reassigned.
These are export-specific F-35A variants, customized to meet the specific requirements of foreign buyers (including software and weapons integration). The USAF would not procure these aircraft as they differ from its own specifications.
Lockheed Martin's facility in Fort Worth, Texas, produces approximately 150 F-35s annually, with a significant portion (40-50%) typically allocated for export. A wave of cancellations could, therefore, create a considerable surplus.
India, which currently operates a mix of Russian, French, and domestically produced aircraft, has not previously joined the F-35 program. This was partly due to its strong defence relationship with Russia and the US's hesitancy to share sensitive technology with a non-treaty ally. However, the current circumstances present several potential advantages for India.
However, significant challenges remain. India's budget constraints (reportedly around $100 million per jet), its ongoing commitment to the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program, and potential US export restrictions (due to India's possession of the Russian S-400 system) could complicate any potential deal.
The F-35's relatively high operating costs, estimated at around $44,000 per flight hour, could also be a significant factor, especially compared to less expensive options like the Rafale, which India already operates.
