As the recent Israel-Hamas conflict casts a shadow over the future of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), India is increasingly focusing on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as a crucial trade route.
And within this strategic shift, Armenia is emerging as a pivotal partner for India, offering a secure and reliable passage for goods bypassing potentially problematic routes through Azerbaijan.
This development comes as Iran's Ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, announced an agreement for a trilateral meeting between India, Iran, and Armenia to establish a new transport corridor.
This corridor, envisioned as part of the INSTC, would facilitate the movement of goods from Mumbai, India, to Chabahar, Iran, and then overland through Armenia to reach markets in the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
The INSTC, a 7,200-km long multimodal network, was originally conceived in 2000 by India, Iran, and Russia to connect the Indian Ocean to the Caspian Sea and onward to Northern Europe. However, the current route's passage through Azerbaijan presents security concerns for India, given Azerbaijan's close ties with Pakistan and Turkey.
"Azerbaijan maintains very close ties with Pakistan and Turkey," explains Abhinav Pandya, founder and CEO of the Usanas Foundation think tank. "As such, there are security concerns for India while transporting goods through the INSTC. However, India maintains very good ties with both Iran and Armenia."
Armenia offers an alternative route through its Syunik province, bypassing Azerbaijan entirely. This strategic advantage, coupled with burgeoning India-Armenia defence cooperation, solidifies Armenia's importance in India's INSTC strategy.
In recent years, India has become a significant supplier of defence equipment to Armenia, including the Akash surface-to-air missile system, Swathi radar system, and Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers. This growing defence partnership reflects India's commitment to supporting Armenia amidst regional tensions and ensuring the security of the INSTC.
"India is not trying to project itself as a major geopolitical player in the South Caucasus region," clarifies Pandya. "India's interest is in selling arms to Armenia and thereafter to other countries."
However, India's engagement with Armenia has clear strategic implications. By fostering strong ties with Armenia, India aims to counter the influence of the Pakistan-Azerbaijan-Turkey axis in the South Caucasus and secure a reliable and safe passage for its goods through the INSTC.
The proposed India-Iran-Armenia corridor represents a significant development in India's trade and foreign policy. It underscores India's determination to diversify its trade routes, strengthen its partnerships in the region, and ensure the secure and efficient flow of goods to key markets.
