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Satellite imagery analysis reveals a concerning trend of Chinese encroachment into Bhutanese territory. Over the past seven years, Bhutan has lost approximately 2% of its land to these incursions.
This erosion of sovereignty is further evidenced by the construction of at least 22 villages and settlements within Bhutanese territory by China over the last eight years, with eight of these villages built since 2020 alone, particularly near the strategically important Doklam plateau.
This methodical approach by China to alter the territorial status quo in Bhutan involves not just the physical construction of settlements but also the relocation of thousands of people into these areas, effectively creating facts on the ground. The villages near Doklam are particularly alarming given the plateau's proximity to the trijunction of India, Bhutan, and China, and its history as a flashpoint between Indian and Chinese forces in 2017.
Bhutan, known for its policy of "Gross National Happiness" and neutrality, has traditionally relied on diplomacy to resolve border disputes, maintaining a close security partnership with India. However, the apparent inability to counter these encroachments raises concerns about the future of Bhutan's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Historical claims by China on Bhutanese territory, dating back to Mao Zedong's era, appear to be manifesting through these recent actions. China is not only asserting control but also actively altering the demographic and physical landscape of Bhutan.
The Bhutanese monarchy faces a complex geopolitical reality. While committed to preserving the nation's independence and cultural identity, it must navigate the assertive actions of its powerful neighbour. Decades of border talks with China have not kept pace with the rapid changes on the ground. Bhutan's public silence on the issue likely reflects a desire to avoid antagonizing either China or India.
For India, Bhutan's territorial integrity is crucial, both for regional stability and national security. Chinese control over areas like Doklam could threaten the Siliguri Corridor, India's narrow land link to its northeastern states. Increased Chinese presence in Bhutan also provides leverage in negotiations over other disputed territories with India.
Bhutan must carefully navigate this crisis, employing a combination of diplomacy, international support, and potentially a reevaluation of its security arrangements. Strengthening ties with India, which has a vested interest in Bhutan's sovereignty, could be pivotal. Bhutan must also engage more assertively in international forums to highlight these encroachments and garner support.
The international community should pay close attention to this situation. Bhutan's experience could set a precedent for how territorial disputes involving smaller nations are handled in the face of larger powers' ambitions. It is a test of the rules-based international order and the commitment to upholding the sovereignty of all nations.
