China's Defence Spending Escalation Raises Concerns in the Indo-Pacific

China's sustained military budget increases, exceeding 7% for the third straight year, are causing growing unease amongst regional powers, especially India. While China's defence spending remains significantly less than that of the United States, it has tripled India's budget, creating a power dynamic that impacts the Indo-Pacific balance.

The year 2027, marking the centenary of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), is viewed with heightened anxiety. US Indo-Pacific Command assessments indicate the potential for President Xi Jinping to use military force in an attempt to unify Taiwan with mainland China. This potential looms large within the strategic outlooks of the region.

Modernization and Regional Ambitions​

China's focus on rapidly modernizing both nuclear and conventional forces signals a clear ambition to become the preeminent military power in the Indo-Pacific. This includes building aircraft carrier task forces to project its influence into the Indian Ocean. Such moves could lead to a response from Japan, potentially pushing it to reassess its historically pacifist stance.

Furthermore, China is likely to solidify its dominance of the contested South China Sea through missiles and maritime power. This development directly challenges the interests of numerous Southeast Asian nations, as well as other major powers such as the United States.

Implications for India and the Region​

India, embroiled in a tense four-year standoff with China along the eastern Ladakh Line of Actual Control (LAC), could face mounting pressure from the PLA in the coming years. This border situation directly highlights the growing military power imbalance between the two nations.

China's behavior and trajectory necessitate robust cooperation between major stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific. Countries such as India, Japan, Australia, and those within ASEAN must work together, both bilaterally and multilaterally (such as through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), to address the evolving situation and deter potential Chinese aggression.

Global Significance​

The rise of China's military power isn't just a regional concern. It's a shift reshaping the global order. As China's capabilities expand, so too does its potential to challenge the US-led global system that's existed since World War II. How China uses its increasing military might, especially in complex situations like the Taiwan Strait, will have repercussions that extend far beyond the Indo-Pacific.

 

[NSR]

Have no worries at all guys, we are sitting prettily at LAC guarding against criminal chinese ccp and its depraved and salami slicing pla.
pla knows the consequences of Gaalwan 2020 where we gifted them with 100+ bodies, and even chinese best friend Russia says India killed 46 chinese soldiers.

Bring it on like Yangtze, and we are ready.

 

[charminar_waale_ismail_bhai]

For all practical purposes, China is less of a state and more of an empire. A prosperous one at that. They have at their disposal a powerful ruling class and a large subject. Defence budget as a fraction of GDP means nothing to the emperors of the Chinese empire.

If we continue to engage with them diplomatically as two republics, we would be missing out on the nuance of geopolitics. China respects only powerful empires and its doesnt treat democratic states as serious countries. That is why it tries to interfere into borders and often forces ita way through principle of might is right.

If we need to deal with China from a point of strength, we need to put on our empire hat on. Learn from our hiatory. China never interfered in the subcontinent because it was almsot always rules by string of very powerful Hindu empires. Only reason we escaped their wrath in the medieval ages because the Mongol invasion had rendered the Middle emire weak that they were literally a shadow of their own past. In the modern age, a Hindu rastra under a powerful ruling class and under the patronage of Hindu institutions like the one led by the Sangh would be best suited to deal with an expansionist China and show it its place in the world.

 

[Mango_Indian]

Even if India spends more - the value for money aspect is totally missing in the Indian Arms industry barring very few grounds-up indigenous platforms like Pinaka, AGNI, DHANUSH and ATAGS howitzer etc.

The reason - India is importing critical parts and screwdrive. Take Arjun MBT, Dhruv, ALH, P-15B warships, LCA Tejas...all of these platforms have 40% or more import content which is the most technological advanced components. These import content is subject to license fees as well due to Indian assembly. For every SAFRAN engine assembled in India for DHRUV, ALH, Prachand etc. India pays USD 250,000 as license fees.

Sad reality is there is no other option as here we are atleast gaining some experience. Till then...

 

[desigandu]

China’s real Defense budget is probably in the range of $450-500B, but given its ambitions of world domination it needs to spend more, which it will as its economy grows. So given that what should India do - we should strive to spend more but smartly. We should target a spend in at least 2.5% of GDP if not 3.0% which can be a long term ambition. Even at 2.5% and about a $4T economy and government budget over all in the $650B range we need to spend about $100B as compared to about $80B now. But the more important aspect is how we use this money for local products and capability that helps us dominate IOR, defend the Himalayas, and have asymmetric capability say in Cyber, EW, undersea and space domains. That way China will be vary if taking us on directly. Third and most important is alliances and partnerships which can include joining Aukus, militating quad, and ability block Chinese trade and navy in the IOR…

 

[shivkumar sinha]

Bharat undoubtedly needs high growth rate ,more allocation to defence capital budget,rapid indigenisation and optimum utilisation of resources. However a doctrinal change is more important. For example ,NATO countries spend 30+ times more than RF but failed to stop Russians in Ukraine. A decade ago ,a tiny country like pakistan spending much less than Bharat, was always on offensive against us ,initiated many attacks like kargil ,26/11 and more .

 

[Bharat007]

Have no worries at all guys, we are sitting prettily at LAC guarding against criminal chinese ccp and its depraved and salami slicing pla.
pla knows the consequences of Gaalwan 2020 where we gifted them with 100+ bodies, and even chinese best friend Russia says India killed 46 chinese soldiers.

Bring it on like Yangtze, and we are ready.

You are suffering from Nehruvian syndrome. Nehru has same thought about China during 1960s and refused to listen to wise counsel of Sardar. This ultimately resulted in India getting defeated by China. All because of Nehru's ego. Same ego still exists among present day Indians like you! Ego makes a person blind to see the reality.

Moral lesson: Never underestimate your enemy.

 

[Anant]

China’s real Defense budget is probably in the range of $450-500B, but given its ambitions of world domination it needs to spend more, which it will as its economy grows. So given that what should India do - we should strive to spend more but smartly. We should target a spend in at least 2.5% of GDP if not 3.0% which can be a long term ambition. Even at 2.5% and about a $4T economy and government budget over all in the $650B range we need to spend about $100B as compared to about $80B now. But the more important aspect is how we use this money for local products and capability that helps us dominate IOR, defend the Himalayas, and have asymmetric capability say in Cyber, EW, undersea and space domains. That way China will be vary if taking us on directly. Third and most important is alliances and partnerships which can include joining Aukus, militating quad, and ability block Chinese trade and navy in the IOR…

Agreed. Analysts have long estimated China maintains a defence spending that is roughly between 2.5 and 3% of GDP. As of today, that would put their actual defence spending at between 442.5 and 531 billion USD.

However, another thing that people often miss is the fact that 1 billion USD goes considerably more in China than it does in the USA. Since China is able to locally manufacture most equipment and associated parts and subsystems, their defence spending might be better seen in purchasing power terms. In that case, if you look at their defence budget in terms of purchasing power (using GDP numbers to get the PPP ratio), then 2.5% of GDP defence spending would give them a budget just marginally short of the US budget, and 3% would put them over. Even the officially released numbers, when adjusted to purchasing power, gives them a budget that is almost two-thirds America's budget.

On the other hand, since we here in India still have to import a lot of items, we don't leverage the advantage of purchasing power as much, which then also means our defence budget is about one-third of that of China on paper, while in actual, it may be closer to one-fifth or even one-sixth.

 

[charminar_waale_ismail_bhai]

Agreed. Analysts have long estimated China maintains a defence spending that is roughly between 2.5 and 3% of GDP. As of today, that would put their actual defence spending at between 442.5 and 531 billion USD.

However, another thing that people often miss is the fact that 1 billion USD goes considerably more in China than it does in the USA. Since China is able to locally manufacture most equipment and associated parts and subsystems, their defence spending might be better seen in purchasing power terms. In that case, if you look at their defence budget in terms of purchasing power (using GDP numbers to get the PPP ratio), then 2.5% of GDP defence spending would give them a budget just marginally short of the US budget, and 3% would put them over. Even the officially released numbers, when adjusted to purchasing power, gives them a budget that is almost two-thirds America's budget.

On the other hand, since we here in India still have to import a lot of items, we don't leverage the advantage of purchasing power as much, which then also means our defence budget is about one-third of that of China on paper, while in actual, it may be closer to one-fifth or even one-sixth.

Bingo that!!!

A dollar travels further in China than it does in the US. An unofficial US $400 billion would be roughly equivalent to $800 billion in PPP terms which puts it roughly in US's ballpark in terms of capabilities.

Also, worth noting, Much if India's measly $80 billion get used up in paying salaries and pensions. Barely a fraction of the budget ends up in military modernization. One way out of this cul de sac for India is the Agniveer Scheme for recruiting hands in the military which also would help keep the overhead low and let India invest more in actual pricurement.

 

[Anant]

Bingo that!!!

A dollar travels further in China than it does in the US. An unofficial US $400 billion would be roughly equivalent to $800 billion in PPP terms which puts it roughly in US's ballpark in terms of capabilities.

Also, worth noting, Much if India's measly $80 billion get used up in paying salaries and pensions. Barely a fraction of the budget ends up in military modernization. One way out of this cul de sac for India is the Agniveer Scheme for recruiting hands in the military which also would help keep the overhead low and let India invest more in actual pricurement.

Indeed. It is estimated that China spends about 18-23% of its military budget for salaries, pensions, etc. We spend 52-55% on those two heads.

 

[dhiraj Raja]

This are official figures but there must be unofficial amount spent in billions of dollars by China which are not reflected anywhere as it is not like India they need to disclose amounts & if someone speaks about it they will be jailed immediately or will disappear & neither anyone can file PLI or go to courts so these figures are just eyewash though we have very less budget than China decision needs to be hastened by defence forces & demand need to be kept realistic also government needs to find way for more finances for arm forces looking today's geographical problems world over

 

[charminar_waale_ismail_bhai]

Indeed. It is estimated that China spends about 18-23% of its military budget for salaries, pensions, etc. We spend 52-55% on those two heads.

Looking at how Agniveer is being oposed tooth and nails, one can only but appreciate the iron handa which rule the Chinese and inculcate strict discipline theor citizen follow.

 

[gurpreetpaji]

I think in 4-5 years time, there will be a huge attack inside India caused by disgruntled state citizens like Muslims, Sikhs and dalits in India. Given the perception people have of their current rulers, the Indian government will be forced to carryout an operation in Pakistan. Since Pakistan would already be well prepared given their knowledge about Indian activities, they will respond with full might, Indian forces will be caught off guard and some Indian territory will be lost to Pakistan. Now India will start preparing for full war, but now China will attack India from North East, and Indian forces will be caught in the middle not knowing where to go to the Pakistani border or North East. Then both China and Pakistan will launch a co-ordinated attack and liberate Kashmir and Punjab, Ladakh and Southern Tibet from India forming new countries in the region. This is probably the most logical outcome of the current strong diplomacy being played by India

 

[Anil Kumar]

I think in 4-5 years time, there will be a huge attack inside India caused by disgruntled state citizens like Muslims, Sikhs and dalits in India. Given the perception people have of their current rulers, the Indian government will be forced to carryout an operation in Pakistan. Since Pakistan would already be well prepared given their knowledge about Indian activities, they will respond with full might, Indian forces will be caught off guard and some Indian territory will be lost to Pakistan. Now India will start preparing for full war, but now China will attack India from North East, and Indian forces will be caught in the middle not knowing where to go to the Pakistani border or North East. Then both China and Pakistan will launch a co-ordinated attack and liberate Kashmir and Punjab, Ladakh and Southern Tibet from India forming new countries in the region. This is probably the most logical outcome of the current strong diplomacy being played by India

O paji just chill. Don't think too much and take tension. India is sufficient and will do whatever require and everyone will do his task. Aap bas apni chinta Karo duniya ki tension chor do. And please stop taking cheap drugs

 

[CCPSmasher]

Reasonable or acceptable to rest of the world is a different ball case. But, CCP is gunning for world domination and the world where their whims plays supremacy. However, here we in India our big0ts and ethno cvnts are too caught up in P0rkistan domination. A lietrally failed country domination kink just to massage our misleading ego trip. If we ever failed to rise to the ocassion as a great nation that India surely is, it's because of the lack of ambition and sheer incompetence.

 

[Sandeep]

Reasonable or acceptable to rest of the world is a different ball case. But, CCP is gunning for world domination and the world where their whims plays supremacy. However, here we in India our big0ts and ethno cvnts are too caught up in P0rkistan domination. A lietrally failed country domination kink just to massage our misleading ego trip. If we ever failed to rise to the ocassion as a great nation that India surely is, it's because of the lack of ambition and sheer incompetence.

Your absolutely right and the reason is because of the corrupt jihadi party which damaged our country with its policies, mass corruption and a economical failure to make trade deals decades ago or attract more investment. The crucial problem has been the failed education system which didn't keep up with modern technology or promote primarily STEM subjects. It was only now that we developed the new education policy which was decades old.

 

[Sandeep]

I think in 4-5 years time, there will be a huge attack inside India caused by disgruntled state citizens like Muslims, Sikhs and dalits in India. Given the perception people have of their current rulers, the Indian government will be forced to carryout an operation in Pakistan. Since Pakistan would already be well prepared given their knowledge about Indian activities, they will respond with full might, Indian forces will be caught off guard and some Indian territory will be lost to Pakistan. Now India will start preparing for full war, but now China will attack India from North East, and Indian forces will be caught in the middle not knowing where to go to the Pakistani border or North East. Then both China and Pakistan will launch a co-ordinated attack and liberate Kashmir and Punjab, Ladakh and Southern Tibet from India forming new countries in the region. This is probably the most logical outcome of the current strong diplomacy being played by India

How delusional can you be? The only disgruntled people are the corrupt jihadi party, corrupt businesses, tax evaders, Muslims who think India should be converted and their religious practices should be implemented, jihadi clerics, illegal mosque construction etc. As for Dalits the government has been increasing the amount and different welfare support it gives like some free food, subsidised housing, higher income, free midday food for children, free employer provided food, lower taxes, increase infrastructure projects, reduced corruption, free education, university grants or loans or scholarships loans, etc etc.

As for your second delusional scenario that we will be at war with both neighbors then that's not possible because India has nuclear weapons which can obliterate entire cities if war ever occurred.

 

[Anant]

I think in 4-5 years time, there will be a huge attack inside India caused by disgruntled state citizens like Muslims, Sikhs and dalits in India. Given the perception people have of their current rulers, the Indian government will be forced to carryout an operation in Pakistan. Since Pakistan would already be well prepared given their knowledge about Indian activities, they will respond with full might, Indian forces will be caught off guard and some Indian territory will be lost to Pakistan. Now India will start preparing for full war, but now China will attack India from North East, and Indian forces will be caught in the middle not knowing where to go to the Pakistani border or North East. Then both China and Pakistan will launch a co-ordinated attack and liberate Kashmir and Punjab, Ladakh and Southern Tibet from India forming new countries in the region. This is probably the most logical outcome of the current strong diplomacy being played by India

You just worry about yourself and how you would protect yourself when all that nonsense you said doesn't happen. Leave the intelligent discussions and warfighting to people who actually have an idea.

P. S. Kahan ka maal le rahe ho, bhai? Bata do. Police ka chhapa padwa dete hain. Aisa maal to milna bhi nahi chahiye.

 

[Sandeep]

India needs to grow its economy even more and attract more investment from Europe and USA but from south east asian countries. Currently India can't catch up with China immediately but we have to blunt any technology or military advantage they might have. India needs to increase the number of nuclear missiles we have, modernise it, increase warheads size, develop small tactical nuclear missiles, develop guided MIRV missile, develop longer range SLCM, develop air launched long range nuclear missiles. All of this takes away any Chinese military and technological superiority but their military weapons are very unreliable, low quality and underperform by not achieving its stated requirements.

India needs to develop its cybersecurity protection to stop hackers and protect the banking sector from frauds, protect against hackers but also learn how to attack another country's cyber network and utilities, encourage more startups and private companies to design and develop the latest technology and weapons we need. India should also learn how to reverse engineer other products and weapons which can cut down development time and costs etc.

 

[CCPSmasher]

Your absolutely right and the reason is because of the corrupt jihadi party which damaged our country with its policies, mass corruption and a economical failure to make trade deals decades ago or attract more investment. The crucial problem has been the failed education system which didn't keep up with modern technology or promote primarily STEM subjects. It was only now that we developed the new education policy which was decades old.

Just for arguments sake: China's budget for S&T for upcoming year 2024-25 is $52 billion while India's would be in between $2-3 billion since last year's (2023-24) was $2 after 20% yoy growth. Just look at the priorities. We all know we have more pressing issues and priorities. Still a reasonable chunk of investment in S&T would solve a whole lot of all those "priorities".

 

[kumar]

Steps to be taken by India.

1. Increase the defense budget.
2. Strengthen INS Baaz.It will have control over sea lanes, and we can choke Chinese trade.
3. Strengthen QUAD.Bring more countries to QUAD: Singapore,Malaysia, Vietnam, France, the UK, Germany, etc.
4. Make tunnels in the Himalayas, like in Gaza.
5. Induct 5th generation fighter jets like F35.

 

[Pad UwU]

Bring it on China 😹😹😹🔥🔥🔥
Many Indian are itching to get back on you

 

[Pad UwU]

Even at 2.5% and about a $4T economy and government budget over all in the $650B range we need to spend about $100B as compared to about $80B now.

2.5% is not enough IMHO why not make it 5%😺🙃