Despite recent diplomatic dialogues, India is steadfast in its preparations for a fifth consecutive winter with troops deployed along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh-Sikkim. This decision stems from a persistent "trust deficit" with China, according to top sources within the Indian defense establishment.
While acknowledging some progress in political and diplomatic talks, officials emphasize that China's continued military buildup and infrastructure development along the LAC signal a long-term strategic shift. "The trust deficit on the ground with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) remains very high," a source told Times of India.
This assessment comes amidst a flurry of bilateral engagements, including meetings of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) and a meeting between Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. However, the last military commander-level talks occurred in February, with no resolution on key friction points like Depsang Plains and Demchok.
"Disengagement at Depsang and Demchok, if it happens, will only be the first step," a senior officer cautioned. "Till the subsequent de-escalation and de-induction of troops take place for restoration of status quo ante, the threat will remain."
The establishment of buffer zones following previous disengagements has restricted Indian access to 26 of its 65 patrolling points along the LAC. Concerns remain that these buffer zones, intended to be temporary, are becoming entrenched features of the landscape.
"China continues to make unreasonable demands and is playing the long waiting game," an officer stated, emphasizing the need for India to remain vigilant against falling into a protracted stalemate.
Despite the challenges, there is recognition that a political-diplomatic solution is crucial to break the deadlock. "If the two sides agree to a broad framework, the actual disengagement modalities at Depsang and Demchok can be worked out at the military level," an official added.
In the meantime, the Indian Army is maintaining a high level of operational preparedness, with troop readjustments, reserve forces, and logistical support in place to address any contingencies along the volatile border.
This ongoing tension reflects the broader geopolitical complexities between the two Asian giants. The border dispute, which dates back decades, has flared up in recent years, notably with a deadly clash in Galwan Valley in 2020. While both countries have engaged in multiple rounds of talks, a lasting resolution remains elusive.
The upcoming winter deployment presents another test for both nations, underscoring the need for continued dialogue and de-escalation efforts to ensure stability in the region.
