Indian Navy Eyes 4 Aircraft Carriers by 2040 with 171 Carrier-Based Aircraft, Plans to Counter China-Pak's Growing Naval Fleet

The Indian Navy is charting an ambitious course for its future, focused on expanding and modernizing its aircraft carrier fleet to secure maritime dominance in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

This strategic initiative envisions India operating three to four aircraft carriers by 2040, reflecting the country's growing economic strength and its commitment to strengthening its defence capabilities in the face of increasing maritime challenges from China and Pakistan.

India's current naval strategy centers on operating three aircraft carriers by 2040. INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant are already operational, while the third, INS Vishal, is under development. As India's economy grows and its defence budget expands, the Navy may further increase its fleet to four carriers.

This would provide greater operational flexibility and ensure continuous air operations, with at least one carrier always deployed in critical areas like the IOR, even during maintenance or training cycles.

This growing carrier fleet will be complemented by a substantial increase in carrier-based aircraft. The Navy plans to operate 26 Rafale M fighter jets and 145 TEDBFs (Twin Engine Deck Based Fighters) by 2040, significantly enhancing its offensive and defensive capabilities.

The Rafale M, with its advanced technology, including AESA radar, electronic warfare systems, and long-range weaponry, will provide a formidable air defence umbrella and strike capability.

The TEDBF, a 5th-generation aircraft designed specifically for India's carrier operations, will integrate advanced stealth and AI-assisted capabilities. Its low maintenance cost and operational flexibility will make it a valuable asset.

Together, these aircraft will total 171 by 2040, representing a significant concentration of airpower aboard Indian aircraft carriers. This will provide a critical edge in potential conflicts, particularly with Pakistan, whose air force currently operates around 450 combat jets.

Furthermore, India's naval airpower will act as a force multiplier for the Indian Air Force (IAF). In times of conflict, carrier-based aircraft will work in tandem with the IAF, providing additional coverage, firepower, and strategic reach. This synergy will enhance India's overall air combat capability, creating a strong deterrent against adversaries.

India's expanding carrier fleet also serves as a counter to China's growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is rapidly expanding its carrier fleet, aiming for a permanent presence in the region to secure its trade routes and supply chains.

As India expands its own carrier fleet, the rivalry in the Indian Ocean will intensify. India's aircraft carriers, with their advanced fighter jets, will not only defend the nation's interests but also help to counter China's ambitions and assert India's dominance in the region.

In conclusion, India's ambitious plan to expand its aircraft carrier fleet and enhance its naval airpower reflects its commitment to becoming a major maritime power. This initiative will significantly bolster India's defence capabilities, counter the growing naval presence of China in the IOR, and ensure the protection of its strategic interests.

 

India Should Avoid Hasty Acquisition of Costly and Premature Foreign Fighter Jets in Response to Pakistan's J-35, Warns Experts India's TEDBF Fighter Jet to Feature AI-Assisted Landing and Take-off for Safer and More Efficient Carrier Operations

[Akash7645]

It is an unachievable goal. Because the 2nd vikrant class AC is still on the papers. Let's say it's steel sutting starts in 2026, it can be ready for induction by 2034-35. And by that time, vikramaditya will be retired. So IN will have only 2 AC by 2035. And next 5 years will be wasted in discussion.

Until and unless two 65,000 ton nuclear powered AC and one vikrant class AC commission by 2026, there is no way IN can have 4 functional AC by 2040.

 

[R. Singh]

Two 65000 ton Electric powered ACs and one 85000 ton nuclear powered AC to replace INS Vkramaditya

 

[Anant]

4 aircraft carriers by 2040? Um, unless we want to use the LHDs as carriers, we will be functionally down to two plus the (by then geriatric) Vikramaditya by 2040. IAC-II needs to be green-lit at once, and design work on IAC-III needs to progress at speed. If we are to have IAC-III in service by 2043-44 (coinciding with Vikramaditya completing three decades of operations in Indian service), then construction of IAC-III will also have to begin shortly after IAC-II is launched around 2030.

 

[sanket]

Thats sounds great After 2040 IN may have 145 TEDBF +26 Rafale M = 171 compared to PAF with 450 Jets & which are outdated Tech

 

[abhinav srivastava]

Good plan. We also need naval fighter jets having Su30's range in Andaman-Nicobar. Also, along our major trade routes we need allies where we can have military presence.

 

[WarTech]

Instead of focusing on Pakistanand chest thumping, focus on China, as they are far ahead of us. We need to outcompete them in the short as well as long term. They already have many naval bases in Indian ocean.

 

[Kira]

4 aircraft carriers by 2040? Um, unless we want to use the LHDs as carriers, we will be functionally down to two plus the (by then geriatric) Vikramaditya by 2040. IAC-II needs to be green-lit at once, and design work on IAC-III needs to progress at speed. If we are to have IAC-III in service by 2043-44 (coinciding with Vikramaditya completing three decades of operations in Indian service), then construction of IAC-III will also have to begin shortly after IAC-II is launched around 2030.

Also, the math itself is off, as the IN having 171 jets and the PAF about 450 birds, then the IN does not have 62% of the strength of the latter.Besides, the TEDBF does not make sense given the IAF's disinterest in it and HAL's well-known lack of focus and production capacity.

 

[Anant]

Also, the math itself is off, as the IN having 171 jets and the PAF about 450 birds, then the IN does not have 62% of the strength of the latter.Besides, the TEDBF does not make sense given the IAF's disinterest in it and HAL's well-known lack of focus and production capacity.

True, Sir, but the PAF does look set for a downsizing as they only have limited replacements for the F-16, Mirage III, and Mirage 5 fleets. Still, the 62% figure is overly optimistic.

As for TEDBF, I respectfully disagree. It is very much a necessity if we want naval fighters and don't want to operate our carriers as helicopter carriers.

 

[Kira]

True, Sir, but the PAF does look set for a downsizing as they only have limited replacements for the F-16, Mirage III, and Mirage 5 fleets. Still, the 62% figure is overly optimistic.

As for TEDBF, I respectfully disagree. It is very much a necessity if we want naval fighters and don't want to operate our carriers as helicopter carriers.

I just don't see the Indian Navy (IN) footing the bill itself in the absence of buy-in from the IAF, all while HAL can't even produce a simple lighter jet on schedule, let alone a heavily souped-up 4.5th-gen twin-engine fighter on its own anytime soon. Also, I am skeptical that the IN will somehow forgo the upcoming AMCA and its potential naval variant for the TEDBF by the late 2030s for a 4th-gen jet.

Besides all these glaring issues, there are significant budget issues too, as the IN itself is modernizing at a rapid clip with the induction of conventional and nuclear subs and heavier capital ships. I don't think the IN can afford to concentrate on a completely clean-slate fighter jet of its own, but rather prefers to ride on the IAF's coattails.

As for the PAF, yeah, they don't have much money, but then again, they don't have ready access to Western jets. But they can invest in steadily improving Chinese jets like the J-10 for the F-16 and improved versions of the JF-17 for replacing the fossilized Migs and Mirages, all while likely inducting the swanky new J-35 to rub that in the IAF's face. The PRC can always act like a sugar daddy to Pakistan and subsidize much of its modernization in the future.

 

[Anant]

I just don't see the Indian Navy (IN) footing the bill itself in the absence of buy-in from the IAF, all while HAL can't even produce a simple lighter jet on schedule, let alone a heavily souped-up 4.5th-gen twin-engine fighter on its own anytime soon. Also, I am skeptical that the IN will somehow forgo the upcoming AMCA and its potential naval variant for the TEDBF by the late 2030s for a 4th-gen jet.

Besides all these glaring issues, there are significant budget issues too, as the IN itself is modernizing at a rapid clip with the induction of conventional and nuclear subs and heavier capital ships. I don't think the IN can afford to concentrate on a completely clean-slate fighter jet of its own, but rather prefers to ride on the IAF's coattails.

As for the PAF, yeah, they don't have much money, but then again, they don't have ready access to Western jets. But they can invest in steadily improving Chinese jets like the J-10 for the F-16 and improved versions of the JF-17 for replacing the fossilized Migs and Mirages, all while likely inducting the swanky new J-35 to rub that in the IAF's face. The PRC can always act like a sugar daddy to Pakistan and subsidize much of its modernization in the future.

Sir, I agree with your perspective that the Navy would have difficulty justifying an entire aircraft program. However, we do not have any viable alternatives either. Please bear with me for a few minutes as I explain why:

1. Tejas N: The present Tejas Mk 1 naval variants do not possess sufficient payload capacity, not to mention the Navy's reluctance towards single-engined fighters. At most, we can look at ordering a few of these for interim training duties to free up the MiG-29KUB trainers for carrier deployments if need be.

2. Tejas Mk 2 (naval variant): This aircraft doesn't exist yet, and while the Tejas Mk 2 is a better aircraft, navalising it would still retain a lot of the payload concerns, not to mention the single engine factor.

3. AMCA N: Sir, AMCA as a fighter is quite heavy. Navalising it would add more weight, which would render it of very limited utility for STOBAR operations from a carrier. Moreover, as experience with the F-35C has shown in the USN, fifth generation naval jets have massive challenges in terms of maintenance at sea. Moreover, stealth coatings suffer very badly at sea (where you have saline seaspray and the like), so availability would be a major issue. There is then the matter of payload. AMCA N may be a decent fighter for CATOBAR operations, but it's very limited STOBAR payload would either hamper naval strike operations very adversely, or would necessitate 4.5th generation fighters to support with greater payload.

4. More Rafale Ms: Too expensive of an option, not to mention this again involves using a jet designed for CATOBAR operations in a STOBAR setting, which means payload would suffer as it is.

On top of all that, the MiG-29K has proven to be less than ideal at its job, and faces significant availability issues (estimated to be less than 70% at most times). That means we need more jets, and we need jets that can perform all those roles.

As for the PAF's modernisation, they have plans to replace the older Block 15MLU F-16s with about 40 J-35s, and replace the 232 F-7, Mirage III, and Mirage 5s with a mixture of JF-17 Block III and whatever the PFX program gives. Still, a downsizing is expected.

 

[Sandeep]

Of course we might have a good plan on paper but as with all plans and with life there are changes and issues, technology development, supplier issues, lengthy price negotiations, manufacturing problems, certifying the technology, running long tests, making minor/major modifications, budget constraints, other urgent priorities etc.

However despite all of these issues we need to get the job done no matter what but we need to be realistic at the same time. Making another Vikrant carrier needs to start building now as it will take around 8 years realistically. We also need to scrap the 65000t carrier and design, develop and manufacture a 80000t flat top carrier as the threat from China is only going to increase and we need to match their air power.

Also we need to still develop the TEDBF and until we manufacture the prototypes we still won’t know how long it will take to get certified and also how long it will take to manufacture the jets. We also need to ensure that foreign equipment, parts and technology like engines will be manufactured in time and its foreign parts supplied in time because otherwise we won’t have a functioning engine.

 

[BCharlie]

Thats sounds great After 2040 IN may have 145 TEDBF +26 Rafale M = 171 compared to PAF with 450 Jets & which are outdated Tech

Sir ji, there is a saying: "One bird in hand is far better than two birds in the bush," and we know that those Pakistanis would be sleeping till 2040 and fiddling with 3.5 or 4th-gen tech. Yes? Sir ji, they are going to have stealth tech 5th-gen fighter planes in a couple of years from today, whereas we are talking and talking and talking and talking and... Yawn. We need to wake up and kick some butts.

 

[Surendra Barsode]

Pakistan is not going to be bothered a bit by all these Indian Navy grand plans. It knows that Pak itself may not exist by 2030 or at the most 2035. So why bother!!!!

 

[aryavarta🇮🇳]

First get your house is order. defence planning is in trouble waters. The MMRFA Program is a testament to India's poor defence planning. And for God sake increase your defence expenditure.

 

[abhinav srivastava]

TEDBFs first flight is scheduled for 2029 development, weapons trial, testing, certification may be complete by 2040. After that 3-4 years negotiations and production set up. Then production will start at 8 jets per year, subsequently increased to 16. It will take at least 2 decades from now to see few squadrons of TEDBF. Hope its tech will still be relevant in 2050.

 

[Vikas Yadav 007]

Indian Navy will become true blue ocean 🌊 navy when next two Aircraft carriers will be neuclear powdered,70000T+ & operates with 4 squadron of Fifth generation 80Naval AMCa,87 TEDBF or 2 squadron 36 F35B and 57 Rafale jet fighter.
As chinise naval would've created 6 to 8 battle carriers group in next 20years each with full fleet of 2 cruiser,4 destroyer & frigates, 2 submarine, 1replenish warships.
Indian defence leadership should've taken bold step to create two aircraft carriers with help of western Alliance like France .UK also make two same category carriers of 65000T .

 

[Leored]

Dumb idea present scenario autonomous drone carrier will be more effective and submersible drones. Aircraft carrier will be less effective.

 

[ASHOK CARROL]

Pakistan and its economy may be sunk. Its citizens are suffering from poverty and hunger, but the Pakistan armed forces are not bankrupt. With their Fuji foundation and billions in earnings from heroin, opium, drug trade, illegal arms and ammunition trade, and exports, rest assured, with their fanatical hatred towards India, they will find the budget and money and purchase/build in a focused way without undue delays, wavering, or delayed decisions.

 

[Santa]

India mainly need three aircraft carriers as per our location......but India need to develop it Island like lakshadweep, andaman and nicobar as a unsinkable aircraft carriers....
And India should try to develop underwater drones like technology,and mainly nuclear submarines and India should try the idea of IRAN of drones carriers ship 🚢 which is low cost and highly effective in future warefare..