India is quickly establishing itself as a formidable force in the global artillery ammunition market, now the third-largest producer behind Russia and China. However, its meteoric rise comes with heightened scrutiny due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Recent successes underscore India's growing prowess. A lucrative $225 million deal with Saudi Arabia and a contract from the US Army for its Bi-Modular Charge System (BMCS) – an essential 155mm artillery propellant – showcase the country's capabilities. Compatibility with NATO standards and advanced manufacturing techniques, resulting in fewer faulty shells, add to the appeal of Indian-made ammunition.
But this newfound prominence has a dark side. The war in Ukraine has fueled a global ammunition shortage, inviting unwanted attention from dubious entities seeking to exploit the situation. Indian manufacturers report a spike in suspicious inquiries, forcing them to enhance security protocols. Additionally, India's neutral position in the war, maintaining a refusal to supply arms to either side, creates another dimension of complexity.
Evidence suggests that, despite stringent efforts, some Indian-made artillery shells have found their way to the Ukrainian battlefield, most likely via third-party nations. Companies claim diligence, but once exported, tracking ammunition becomes a significant challenge with the potential for indirect resupplying of Ukraine.
Two years of conflict have drained European and American stockpiles, prompting a rush of orders for Indian ammunition. Though importing countries often pledge these supplies are for their own use and not meant for Ukraine, guaranteeing complete oversight proves difficult. Concerns from Russia about Indian munitions reaching Ukraine have resulted in additional checks by the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD).
India's burgeoning defence exports offer a mix of opportunity and risk. The nation must tread cautiously, ensuring responsible trade and maintaining its commitment to technological progress. The challenge ahead will be striking a delicate balance between economic benefits and India's neutral stance within the war, a difficult act likely to shape the years ahead.