In anticipation of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Union Budget presentation on July 23rd, experts predict a significant increase in India's defence allocation for the fiscal year 2024-25.
This move reflects a continued emphasis on bolstering military capabilities to address evolving geopolitical challenges, particularly those posed by neighboring China.
Shifting Priorities: From Pakistan to China
India's defence strategy has undergone a notable shift in recent decades. While Pakistan historically held the spotlight as a primary security concern, the rise of China as a regional and global power has necessitated a recalibration.China's assertive actions, including territorial disputes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Line of Control (LOC), have prompted India to prioritize countermeasures to safeguard its territorial integrity.
Dr. Amit Singh, an Associate Professor at JNU's Special Centre for National Security Studies, emphasizes the need for India to adapt to rapidly changing global dynamics. He suggests that a significant increase in the defence budget is crucial to effectively address emerging security challenges.
China's Growing Military Expenditure
China's defence budget has steadily risen in recent years. In March 2024, Beijing announced a 7.2% increase in military spending, reaching CNY 1.6554 trillion (USD 231.4 billion).While this constitutes 1.25% of China's GDP, it is notably lower than the global average of 1.8% and the 2% target for NATO countries. However, in regional terms, China's defence expenditure dwarfs that of Taiwan (twelvefold) and Japan (fourfold).
India's defence Budget vs. China's
Despite China's economic slowdown, its defence expenditure has doubled since 2015, according to Dr. Singh. In contrast, India's interim budget for 2024-25 allocated approximately USD 75 billion to defence, a figure Dr. Singh deems insufficient considering the perceived threats from China.India's defence allocation for 2024-25 represents a 4.3% increase from the previous year, constituting 13.04% of the total Union Budget. While this reflects a commitment to national security, experts like Dr. Singh argue that a more substantial allocation is necessary to adequately address the challenges posed by China.
He suggests that India should allocate at least 25% of the central government's total expenditure to defence in the upcoming budget.
Expectations and Future Outlook
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has emphasized the importance of a well-equipped and modernized military for India's aspirations to become a developed nation by 2047.With the current geopolitical landscape marked by tensions and uncertainties, a robust defence budget is viewed as essential for ensuring national security and maintaining a credible deterrent.
As India navigates a complex and evolving security environment, the upcoming Union Budget will be closely watched for its defence allocations.
The decision regarding defence spending will not only shape India's military capabilities but also signal its strategic priorities in the face of regional and global challenges.
