In 2019, Russia reportedly proposed an informal geopolitical "swap" to the first Trump administration, offering to relinquish influence over Venezuela if the United States would withdraw its support for Ukraine.
A. The Proposed 2019 Deal:
According to 2019 congressional testimony by Fiona Hill—the top Russia expert on the National Security Council at the time—Russian officials signaled they wanted a "very strange swap arrangement".
1. The Logic: Moscow framed the deal through a "spheres of influence" lens. They argued that if the U.S. wanted Russia out of its "backyard" (Venezuela and the Americas), then the U.S. should stay out of Russia's "backyard" (Ukraine and Eastern Europe).
2. The Rejection: Hill testified that she traveled to Moscow in early 2019 to reject the proposal, emphasizing that the U.S. does not trade countries like pieces on a chessboard.
B. 2026 Context and Recent Developments:
As of January 2026, this 2019 proposal has regained intense international focus following a major shift in U.S. foreign policy:
1. Maduro's Capture: On January 3, 2026, President Trump ordered a military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
2. Muted Russian Reaction: Despite their long-standing alliance with Maduro, the Kremlin has offered a notably quiet response to the U.S. intervention.
3. Revived "Swap" Speculation: Analysts are currently debating whether a "secret geopolitical bargain" has finally been struck. The theory suggests that Russia may have "sold out" Maduro in exchange for a free hand or a favorable peace deal in Ukraine during Trump's second term.
4. Official Denials: U.S. officials, including Senator Tom Cotton, have denied any such swap, stating the operation was conducted independently to advance U.S. national interests and stop drug trafficking.
However, knowing Trump and his detest for values & predilection for deal-making devoid of morality, it has a very high possibility...
A. The Proposed 2019 Deal:
According to 2019 congressional testimony by Fiona Hill—the top Russia expert on the National Security Council at the time—Russian officials signaled they wanted a "very strange swap arrangement".
1. The Logic: Moscow framed the deal through a "spheres of influence" lens. They argued that if the U.S. wanted Russia out of its "backyard" (Venezuela and the Americas), then the U.S. should stay out of Russia's "backyard" (Ukraine and Eastern Europe).
2. The Rejection: Hill testified that she traveled to Moscow in early 2019 to reject the proposal, emphasizing that the U.S. does not trade countries like pieces on a chessboard.
B. 2026 Context and Recent Developments:
As of January 2026, this 2019 proposal has regained intense international focus following a major shift in U.S. foreign policy:
1. Maduro's Capture: On January 3, 2026, President Trump ordered a military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
2. Muted Russian Reaction: Despite their long-standing alliance with Maduro, the Kremlin has offered a notably quiet response to the U.S. intervention.
3. Revived "Swap" Speculation: Analysts are currently debating whether a "secret geopolitical bargain" has finally been struck. The theory suggests that Russia may have "sold out" Maduro in exchange for a free hand or a favorable peace deal in Ukraine during Trump's second term.
4. Official Denials: U.S. officials, including Senator Tom Cotton, have denied any such swap, stating the operation was conducted independently to advance U.S. national interests and stop drug trafficking.
However, knowing Trump and his detest for values & predilection for deal-making devoid of morality, it has a very high possibility...
