Major Gaurav Arya Explains Why India Must Pick Su-57 Over F-35, Proposes 10–12 Su-57 and 10 More Rafale Squadrons

India's quest for a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet has sparked intense debate in strategic circles, particularly in light of the depleting squadron strength of the Indian Air Force (IAF).

Speaking on a recent podcast, prominent strategic affairs expert Major Gaurav Arya weighed in on the F-35 versus Su-57 debate, explaining why the Russian platform might be a more pragmatic choice for India's strategic autonomy, despite the F-35's technological superiority.

The F-35 Dilemma and US Technology Control​

The recent Exercise Tarang Shakti brought the US-made F-35 Lightning II to Indian soil, but Indian personnel were reportedly denied close access to the aircraft.

Major Arya explained that this is standard American protocol. The US zealously guards its aerospace technology to prevent espionage, denying access even to friendly NATO nations who haven't purchased the platform.

Currently, Israel is the only nation granted access to the F-35's source codes to make custom modifications.

While acknowledging that the F-35 is widely considered the best stealth fighter globally, Major Arya highlighted a critical risk: American control.

"Buying a fighter jet is the holy grail of aviation. Once you buy an American fighter jet, the Americans control every single thing with it... you do as you're told," he stated.

He drew parallels to the sudden restriction of Starlink satellite services in Ukraine, warning that the US could similarly switch off or restrict the operational capabilities of F-35s if India's geopolitical stances—such as its relations with Russia—did not align with Washington's interests.

For a nation that fiercely guards its sovereignty, this level of external control presents an unacceptable risk.

The Urgency of Squadron Depletion and the AMCA Timeline​

The IAF currently operates with around 29 fighter squadrons, drastically short of the sanctioned 42 required to tackle a two-front threat.

While India is rapidly developing its indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), Major Arya projected that the first full squadron of 18 AMCA jets is realistically 12 to 15 years away, factoring in exhaustive testing and prototyping phases.

With Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) currently burdened with existing orders for the LCA Tejas, the gap in India's air power requires immediate, large-scale acquisitions.

Major Arya noted that replacing HAL leadership with serving senior IAF officers could dramatically improve the company's production efficiency, mirroring the Indian Navy's successful indigenisation models.

The Su-57 Alternative and a Bold Procurement Strategy​

Addressing concerns that the Russian Su-57 may not possess the perfect stealth characteristics of the F-35 or F-22 Raptor, Major Arya argued that India must prioritise availability and strategic independence over perfect specifications.

"Even if it is not 100% stealth, if that technology is available, India should go for it and not nitpick right now," he advised, noting that Russian defence technology comes without the geopolitical strings and kill-switches attached by Washington.

To combat the massive shortfall, Major Arya proposed an aggressive and immediate procurement strategy:

• 10 Additional Rafale Squadrons: Building on the two existing squadrons, India should bite the bullet and order 10 more squadrons of the Dassault Rafale to solidify its 4.5-generation capabilities.
• 10 to 12 Su-57 Squadrons: Simultaneously, India should negotiate with Russia for 10 to 12 squadrons of the Su-57 to fill the critical fifth-generation gap until the AMCA is ready.

The Collusive Threat from China and Pakistan​

The urgency of these acquisitions is underscored by a rapidly evolving threat environment.

Major Arya warned of a collusive threat from China and Pakistan, noting that Beijing is actively looking to equip the Pakistan Air Force with stealth fighters, likely the J-35.

By giving Pakistan a stealth edge, China aims to keep India bogged down on its western flank.

Simultaneously, Beijing is pushing a strategy of encirclement on the eastern and maritime fronts, with infrastructure investments in Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and potential radar and fighter basing at Lalmonirhat in Bangladesh.

In the face of this encirclement and the impending transfer of Chinese stealth technology to Islamabad, Major Arya concluded that the IAF must move "on steroids" to finalise its procurement decisions and rebuild its squadron strength.

 

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[Vishal17118]

10 to 12 Su-57 Squadrons: Simultaneously, India should negotiate with Russia for 10 to 12 squadrons of the Su-57 to fill the critical fifth-generation gap until the AMCA is ready.

I disagree with his suggested numbers of aircraft procurement, currently India should not buy more than 4 Squadrons of 72 Su-57E, 10-12 squadron is Excessive & What is the point of developing Indigenous AMCA & Mk2 or anything if you just fill Airforce with more foreign aircrafts than indigenous ones ?

10 Additional Rafale Squadrons: Building on the two existing squadrons, India should bite the bullet and order 10 more squadrons of the Dassault Rafale to solidify its 4.5-generation capabilities.

Biting-Bullet is not healthy behavior😅, he has suggested earlier that "Give France big enough order in one go & they will give you complete access to source code", I don't think that will ever happen no matter how big is your order, instead of ordering 10 squadron at once additional 4 squadrons can be purchased when F5 Rafale comes out with F5 upgrades for current 6 squadrons of F4+ Rafales.