In a significant development that has reignited strategic debates across South Asia, the United States formally approved a $686 million sustainment package for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet on 8 December 2025.
The deal, notified to Congress by the Defence Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), is officially framed as a necessary measure to maintain the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) interoperability with US and allied forces.
However, defence analysts in New Delhi view the package not merely as routine maintenance, but as a tacit effort to reconstitute Pakistani air power following severe losses sustained during the intense hostilities of "Operation Sindoor" earlier this year.
The Package: Sustainment or Resuscitation?
The approved Foreign Military Sale (FMS) is comprehensive, designed to extend the operational lifespan of Pakistan’s F-16 Block 52 and Mid-Life Update (MLU) aircraft through 2040.According to official documents, the package includes advanced avionics upgrades, cryptographic modules, mission-planning software, and engine spare parts.
Crucially, the deal involves the supply of 92 Link-16 tactical data link systems and AN/APX-126 Advanced Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) systems.
This specific injection of network-centric warfare capabilities has drawn attention, as it suggests a need to rebuild the secure communications architecture of the PAF, which was reportedly severely degraded during the conflict in May 2025.
The logistical support will be spearheaded by Lockheed Martin, ensuring that the ageing airframes can remain airworthy despite the heavy wear and tear of recent combat operations.
The Shadow of Operation Sindoor
While Washington cites "national security" and counter-terrorism as the drivers for this aid, Indian military observers argue the timing directly correlates with the fallout from Operation Sindoor.The brief but high-intensity conflict, which occurred in May 2025, reportedly resulted in the heaviest attrition the PAF has faced in decades.
In August 2025, Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh of the Indian Air Force (IAF) broke official silence to confirm that Indian forces had downed five Pakistani fighter jets in aerial combat.
The IAF Chief also revealed the destruction of a high-value surveillance platform—likely a SAAB 2000 Erieye AEW&C aircraft—intercepted at a range of 300 km, marking the longest-range surface-to-air kill in recorded history.
Beyond the aerial dogfights, Indian precision strikes reportedly devastated ground infrastructure. The most significant damage was inflicted on Shahbaz Airbase in Jacobabad, Sindh—the primary garrison for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet.
"Half of the hangar is gone," Air Chief Marshal Singh stated at the time, noting that aircraft housed within were almost certainly destroyed or critically damaged.
Satellite imagery analysis from late 2025 continues to show the facility in a state of disrepair, lending credence to claims that between two and four F-16s were eliminated on the ground.
A Deafening Silence from Washington
A striking aspect of the post-conflict narrative is the shift in American diplomatic posture. Following the 2019 Balakot airstrikes, US officials were quick to conduct on-site inventories and publicly refute Indian claims of an F-16 kill. In 2025, however, the response has been markedly different.When pressed by international media regarding the PAF’s F-16 losses in August, the US State Department and the Pentagon declined to comment, stating only: "We refer you to the government of Pakistan to discuss its F-16s."
This refusal to issue a denial has been interpreted by Indian experts as a "quiet admission" of the losses.
Furthermore, the deployment of India’s S-400 Triumf missile system along the western border is believed to have played a decisive role in these engagements, a capability that US analysts have notably not disputed.
The Global Supply Crunch
The $686 million package also highlights a critical logistical challenge for Islamabad: the global unavailability of surplus F-16 airframes.Historically, Pakistan has relied on purchasing second-hand aircraft from European allies to bolster its numbers. However, the geopolitical landscape of 2025 has closed this avenue.
European nations such as the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have committed their retiring F-16 fleets almost exclusively to the defence of Ukraine. With hundreds of jets diverted to the Ukrainian war effort or retained for European training centres, the "surplus pipeline" has run dry.
Consequently, Pakistan cannot easily replace its combat losses with "new" old aircraft. Instead, it must rely on this expensive US sustainment package to cannibalise and refurbish its remaining fleet.
Analysts suggest the deal will likely utilise surplus parts from US Air Force Block 25 stocks to keep the PAF’s surviving airframes flying, effectively patching holes rather than expanding capability.
Strategic Signals
Ultimately, this financial injection is seen as a diplomatic signal from the Trump administration, indicating a thaw in US-Pakistan relations driven by shared counter-terrorism interests and intense lobbying from Islamabad.For New Delhi, however, the message is stark. The package serves as a reminder that even decisive tactical victories, such as those achieved in Operation Sindoor, can be strategically offset when global powers intervene to reconstitute an adversary’s military capabilities.
As one Indian defence commentator noted, "The $686 million isn't charity; it is effectively compensation for a fleet that was gutted in Jacobabad and the skies over Punjab."
