Obsolescence Concerns Mount Over India's 4.5-Gen MRFA Tender in Face of China's J-20 Expansion and 6th-Gen Leap

The global military aviation landscape is undergoing a rapid transformation, with China's aggressive advancements in fighter jet technology raising serious concerns for India.

The mass production of China's 5th generation J-20 fighter jets and the successful first flight of what is believed to be a 6th generation aircraft have prompted urgent calls to reassess India's air force procurement strategy, particularly the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program aimed at acquiring 4.5 generation jets.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has been pursuing the MRFA program to modernize its fleet, seeking to procure 114 advanced multi-role fighter jets. Contenders include the Eurofighter Typhoon, the French Rafale, and the American F/A-18 Super Hornet, all classified as 4.5 generation fighters. However, this approach appears increasingly outdated in light of China's recent strides.

China's J-20 stealth fighter has not only entered mass production but is also being deployed in significant numbers, with projections of over 1000 units by 2035. More alarmingly, the recent first flight of a purported 6th generation Chinese fighter jet signals Beijing's intent to leapfrog current technologies, aiming for capabilities like unmanned teaming, enhanced stealth, and potentially hypersonic speed.

These developments have led defence analysts to question whether India's focus on 4.5 generation fighters adequately addresses the strategic threats posed by China's advancements. By the time these new jets are integrated into the IAF, they may already be technologically outmatched by Chinese aircraft.

The immediate recommendation is for India to prioritize acquiring or accelerating the development of 5th generation fighters. While the indigenous AMCA project holds promise, it faces delays, with production not expected until the mid-2030s. In the interim, India may need to explore options for purchasing 5th generation fighters from abroad or expedite the AMCA's development timeline.

Critics argue that investing in 4.5 generation technology now is tantamount to acquiring obsolescence. The cost, time, and effort involved in procuring these jets could be better directed towards securing or developing technology that matches or exceeds the capabilities of potential adversaries.

There are also calls for increased international collaboration, not just for procurement but for co-development of next-generation fighter technology. This could involve partnerships with countries like the US, France, or even joining projects like the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) with the UK, Italy, and Japan to share the burdens and benefits of developing cutting-edge fighter aircraft.

 

With AMCA on the Horizon, India Could Gain First Hand Experience on 6th Gen Techs by Joining GCAP as Observer Challenges and Expectations High as IAF and HAL Enter Contract Negotiations for 97 New LCA Mk-1A Jets Following RFP Issuance

[Sandeep Sandhu]

Should go for a mix of Rafael and Su57!

 

[sanket]

China haven't developed a perfect 6th-gen fighter yet. Bharat has to go with its own vision rather than looking at China. There are question marks over the engine development of these 5th and 6th-gen fighters. Not much is known or seen of these fighters in actual combat yet.

 

[Dipesh Debnath]

China haven't developed a perfect 6th-gen fighter yet. Bharat has to go with its own vision rather than looking at China. There are question marks over the engine development of these 5th and 6th-gen fighters. Not much is known or seen of these fighters in actual combat yet.

If it flies with tonnes of missiles and has some stealth, it's good enough. Nothing is perfect.

 

[PKPRS]

Should go for a mix of Rafael and Su57!

Why foreign 4.5 gen jet, when we already have a local comparable 4.5 gen jet.

 

[SK]

Let's be honest that only sensible option for Indian-Govt & Military is to cancel MRFA to invest in:

1. Additional 60 to 90 Su-30MKI for IAF
2. Additional 18 to 36 Rafale jets for IAF
3. TEDBF (ORCA)
4. AMCA for both IAF & IN
5. Additional C-295 Aircraft to replace the ageing An-32s
6. Airbus A330 & A320 for AWACS, ISR, MRTT, MPA, Civil & VIP Transport roles under Make-in-India program

Apart from the above there seems to be no option to boost both the capabilities of IAF & that of Indian defence-Aerospace industry together.

 

[Ayyadurai Namasivayam]

No need for 5th gen fighters only 4th gen fighters are needed. As per @sanket there is no money available for buying 5th gen fighter but money only available for buying Rafales from France even if the cost is more than 5th gen fighter. Countries like Pakistan with financial crisis is able to buy a 5th gen fighter. We are only taking about TOT and local manufacturing. The govt is not considering the security of the country

 

[obiwankenubi jedi]

This is a fight against the big defence procurement lobby who do not want Indian weapons as there is not much scope for all involved in making a fortune out of it through scams, scandals, kickbacks, and corruption.

MRFA is needed for cheaper 4.5 gen fighter jets in numbers, to make up for the numbers to fight Pakistan's 200 odd jets and to provide minimum deterrence against China's thousands of jets.

We, unfortunately, over the last 30 years, could neither buy nor build a 4.5 gen jet, nor the engine, radars, missiles, or electronics despite having western partners for 40+ years and more.

Russia, our ally, has also used us as a market for its jets, to date refusing to allow and help build our own defence industry, even with 30-year-old AL-31F or RD-33 with full ToT.

We don't have a 5th-gen jet of our own and won't have one for at least 10-15 years if we go by the LCA/Tejas and Kaveri saga.

With the high operational cost of 5th-gen fighters, even if the initial cost of the Su-57 and F-35 have reduced, this is also a consideration for the government, so we will not see 5th-gen fighters in large numbers being bought from OEMs.

We must not go with a one-sided view from the air force but must look into all aspects and buy what is necessary and economical without compromising on timeliness and quality.

If we go by the analogy of computers and microprocessors in the past 20 years, there was a time when parts from various OEMs were assembled, which made it cheaper if the desktop was not fully built by a major brand, though not offering the aesthetics or performance/features of the latest version.

Then the microprocessors were most expensive when they were launched, offering a marginal increase in speed and processing power, but the previous versions were usually cheaper and made the most sense with the balance of performance, quality, and price.

Our 4.5 gen fighter jet purchase under MRFA must be prudent and time-bound.

We must not trust HAL and DRDO to deliver on time, knowing their limitations and history.

And we must diversify our defence procurement, hedge for risks as a sensible investor would do, and seek the right balance, for the limited resources and time in hand.

 

[Aravind]

@SK
How we can trust and invest money on HAL and ADA ? even they lagging to produce single tejas mk2 prototype

 

[Aravind]

Some industries should speed up AMCA development. Don't have trust in HAL and ADA because AMCA is not only for India. We should give this to Indonesia, Vietnam, and create the same pressure that China did.

 

[sanket]

If it flies with tonnes of missiles and has some stealth, it's good enough. Nothing is perfect.

It is flying without missiles and weapons. China always has tall claims about its weapons. Even the F-35 is not a true 5th-gen and has some shortfalls. How can China become a leader in fighter jet tech without having a 5th-gen engine? It can be easily shot down by air defence systems. Recently, a US F-18 was shot down.

 

[ANKIT MEHTA]

The Best Solution for IAF and IN is :-

1. Buy 44 More Rafales (Total 4 80 i.e. 4 Squadron of 20 Each) For IAF and 60 (for Two Carriers as TEDBF will Not available Before 2035 and For IAC 1 and IAC 2 Minimum 60 Rafales will be needed) For IN.
2. Buy 60/80 Su-57 For IAF.
3. Buy Additional 72 Super Su 30 as Per HAL Proposal.

Rest Fighters Should be Tejas, TEDBF and AMCA.
GOI have to Spend Money on this, there is no other Option.

 

[Vijigishu ( विजिग्शु )]

Some industries should speed up AMCA development. Don't have trust in HAL and ADA because AMCA is not only for India. We should give this to Indonesia, Vietnam, and create the same pressure that China did.

There's nothing to speed up. The government will do some panic buying, and DRDO, ADA, and HAL employees will be getting salaries for mundane bureaucratic tasks.

 

[Vijigishu ( विजिग्शु )]

When you don't have anything else, there's nothing wrong in buying 115 Rafaels and focusing on AMCA and Super Su 30 programs. Panicking won't do anything. Better it is if govt tries to bring some high quality Indian brains working in US and Europe, but that's too much to expect from this setup and bureaucratic lobby.

 

[Murthy]

Our Decision makers take years to make up their minds even on very important & obvious security issues! By the time they take decision to float a Tender for 5 th Generation Fighter, 6 th Generation would have entered the market!

 

[Jagroshan]

I am seeing MRFA program/tender turning into a 5th generation tender. Or the panic purchase of these 5th generation platform inevitable.

There is no point left in MRFA program.

 

[GMR]

This rubbish conversation on scrapping MRFA must be stopped. IAF needs MRFA and urgently too.... all, who wants to scrap MRFA, must remember IAF needs a minimum number of jets and then build upon it for quality with 5th gen jets. But please have a decent minimum nuber of jets first and please stop counting relics like MIGs, Jags to self console that we have 31 / 32 squardens.... Quantity is also quality.... and remember, all were needed yesterday

 

[Nirmal Kejriwal]

Should join an existing development group developing 5th gen fighters like Italy and Japan rather than trying to develop everything on your own and reinvent the wheel. Will get a jump start on technology

 

[abhinav srivastava]

Joint development cost with European countries will be way more than our own development. Better to collaborate with them only for those tech/ subsystems which we can't produce and not for whole aircraft.