Despite over two years of intense conflict in Ukraine, a top US general has warned that Russia's air power remains a potent threat. General Christopher G. Cavoli, head of US European Command and NATO's Supreme Allied Commander, testified before Congress on April 10th, revealing that approximately 90% of Russia's Air Force is still intact.
While underscoring Ukraine's battlefield successes, General Cavoli cautioned that Russia's broader military capabilities, including long-range aviation, cyber, and space assets, are largely unscathed. He specifically noted that just 10% of Russia's air fleet has been lost during the war.
Despite notable Ukrainian victories, such as the downing of at least two A-50 Mainstay command and control aircraft, the overall threat from Russia's airpower remains significant. Russia's current strategy seems to favor long-range missile strikes, which may lessen the need for extensive air operations near the frontlines. Ukrainian air defenses, while achieving some triumphs, may not be able to counter the full force of Russia's air power.
The war's ground-centric nature has likely diminished the need for the type of large-scale air operations Russia might rely on in other types of conflicts. Additionally, accurately tracking and verifying Russian air losses remains difficult due to limited and potentially unreliable data.
General Cavoli's testimony highlights the potential for Russia's airpower to play a larger role as the Ukrainian War continues. The impact of pilot attrition and Russia's ability to maintain its fleet remain factors to watch in assessing the war's long-term trajectory.
