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It seems clear that the entire Middle East region is been exposed to the ongoing war between US-Israel and Iran. There is hardly any region left in Middle East that has not been exposed to war or war like situation. There is economic destabilisation across the world and as the clock ticks the worsening impact is getting more and more evident.
The US
US along with Israel entered the war but that was a strategic blunder on US part. There was no strategic planning and probably the worst part was assessing Iran as military power. The retaliation from Iran and most effectively the strategic economic counter strikes on the US assets across the Gulf has not only astonished US but also has devastated their reputation as sole security provider across the Middle East region. US had entered war with goal of regime change but as the catastrophic counter attacks are ever increasing the confusion of the US military planners are increasing too. The billions of loss incurred by the US have seen an unease in the policy makers in the US. Though the fire is not fully on display, but the rhetoric’s are seen on the surface. Undoubtedly there is a wave of negativity against the US in the Middle East for not consulting and forcing the region into unwanted escalation that has brought economic and structural damage to the region. The most evident fault in US war planning is the use of 90’s technology to fight the modern war, the use of high-cost interceptors to neutralise the cheap areal adversaries have further crippled the US pockets. The strategic loss of prime assets and the bases across the region has exposed the miscalculation of the US. Overall, the US who boasts its military might have been hit with total surprise and they seem to be totally out of options and finding difficult to cover the mess created.
The Clerical Regime
After the revolution of 1979, the clerical regime was established in Iran. The supreme leader dominance in all the decisions of the fate of Iran was evident. Whether good or bad the regime is and does regime change is required, logically it depends on the people of Iran. There is no doubt that the atrocities and mass butcher has happened with the people of Iran who has voiced against the extremism of laws and freedom for the people of Iran. And the supreme authority for the execution and application of these laws is prime responsibility of IRGC. The rise of the IRGC is not an overnight phenomenon but an evolution of decades, when the Iraq was annexed by US and the unanimous Saddam Iraqi command was decapitated in weeks, the then Iran Major General Muhammad Ali Jafari in 2003 meticulously thought of the vulnerability and in 2007, he bought the “Mosaic Defense” doctrine. This doctrine has almost 31 autonomous commands who work independently without relying on commands from higher orders. Probably this work force autonomy is what has bought the effect in this war where there are 31 small army that are fighting on auto mode and causing the destruction across the region. Any dream of regime changes through external force as wished by US cannot be just attained by airstrikes but will require intensive “Boots on Ground” operation and that will be highly challenging considering the terrain and landscape of Iran and the mastery of Guerrilla warfare tactics the IRGC has attained. In simple terms to understand it will not be easy and will not be an overnight operation that will give the desired impact to US but will involve a prolonged fight. Question remains is US ready for this prolonged quest to achieve their dream and at what economic cost across the world.
The Stand of India
It is a very precarious situation for India, considering the change of India’s geopolitical doctrine which has completely moved from non-aligned to multipolar alignment. Of course, this has proven beneficial for India as we are able to reach and align with every corner of the globe and with a stand of India first approach. India has always been keen to deescalate the situation through dialogue than escalation. Apart from the external and internal political pressures India has not fallen to any verbal verbatims that will damage the Indian interest. Why will India indulge in any war that has absolutely no gain for India in context of geopolitics. Yes, there will be backdoor diplomacy that the government do when these kind of situations arise, and those diplomatic approaches are never made public and not needed to be made public. The approach of Indian government is pragmatic according to situation where the security of India and Indian people in all forms is kept upfront.
The end for this conflict is not seen in near future as this war has moved from the achievable goals to satisfaction of personnel egos. Time will prove as whether this escalation was necessary and had any gains for the betterment of humanity across the world or was this only for the benefit and personal satisfaction of some ridiculous and immature thinkers.
The US
US along with Israel entered the war but that was a strategic blunder on US part. There was no strategic planning and probably the worst part was assessing Iran as military power. The retaliation from Iran and most effectively the strategic economic counter strikes on the US assets across the Gulf has not only astonished US but also has devastated their reputation as sole security provider across the Middle East region. US had entered war with goal of regime change but as the catastrophic counter attacks are ever increasing the confusion of the US military planners are increasing too. The billions of loss incurred by the US have seen an unease in the policy makers in the US. Though the fire is not fully on display, but the rhetoric’s are seen on the surface. Undoubtedly there is a wave of negativity against the US in the Middle East for not consulting and forcing the region into unwanted escalation that has brought economic and structural damage to the region. The most evident fault in US war planning is the use of 90’s technology to fight the modern war, the use of high-cost interceptors to neutralise the cheap areal adversaries have further crippled the US pockets. The strategic loss of prime assets and the bases across the region has exposed the miscalculation of the US. Overall, the US who boasts its military might have been hit with total surprise and they seem to be totally out of options and finding difficult to cover the mess created.
The Clerical Regime
After the revolution of 1979, the clerical regime was established in Iran. The supreme leader dominance in all the decisions of the fate of Iran was evident. Whether good or bad the regime is and does regime change is required, logically it depends on the people of Iran. There is no doubt that the atrocities and mass butcher has happened with the people of Iran who has voiced against the extremism of laws and freedom for the people of Iran. And the supreme authority for the execution and application of these laws is prime responsibility of IRGC. The rise of the IRGC is not an overnight phenomenon but an evolution of decades, when the Iraq was annexed by US and the unanimous Saddam Iraqi command was decapitated in weeks, the then Iran Major General Muhammad Ali Jafari in 2003 meticulously thought of the vulnerability and in 2007, he bought the “Mosaic Defense” doctrine. This doctrine has almost 31 autonomous commands who work independently without relying on commands from higher orders. Probably this work force autonomy is what has bought the effect in this war where there are 31 small army that are fighting on auto mode and causing the destruction across the region. Any dream of regime changes through external force as wished by US cannot be just attained by airstrikes but will require intensive “Boots on Ground” operation and that will be highly challenging considering the terrain and landscape of Iran and the mastery of Guerrilla warfare tactics the IRGC has attained. In simple terms to understand it will not be easy and will not be an overnight operation that will give the desired impact to US but will involve a prolonged fight. Question remains is US ready for this prolonged quest to achieve their dream and at what economic cost across the world.
The Stand of India
It is a very precarious situation for India, considering the change of India’s geopolitical doctrine which has completely moved from non-aligned to multipolar alignment. Of course, this has proven beneficial for India as we are able to reach and align with every corner of the globe and with a stand of India first approach. India has always been keen to deescalate the situation through dialogue than escalation. Apart from the external and internal political pressures India has not fallen to any verbal verbatims that will damage the Indian interest. Why will India indulge in any war that has absolutely no gain for India in context of geopolitics. Yes, there will be backdoor diplomacy that the government do when these kind of situations arise, and those diplomatic approaches are never made public and not needed to be made public. The approach of Indian government is pragmatic according to situation where the security of India and Indian people in all forms is kept upfront.
The end for this conflict is not seen in near future as this war has moved from the achievable goals to satisfaction of personnel egos. Time will prove as whether this escalation was necessary and had any gains for the betterment of humanity across the world or was this only for the benefit and personal satisfaction of some ridiculous and immature thinkers.
