Ankara is grappling with a complex situation surrounding its Russian-made S-400 air defence system. The purchase has strained relations with the United States, resulting in Turkey's removal from the F-35 program. With the system currently inactive, a former Turkish minister, Cavit Caglar, has proposed selling the S-400s to either Pakistan or India.
This suggestion is multifaceted. Firstly, it could ease tensions with the US and potentially lead to Turkey's reintegration into the F-35 program. Secondly, it would generate revenue for Turkey. And thirdly, it would resolve the issue of the unused S-400 systems.
Pakistan seems the more probable buyer, given its strong defence ties with Turkey and expressed interest in advanced air defence systems. The S-400 would significantly bolster Pakistan's air defence capabilities and provide valuable intelligence on the system, especially considering its rivalry with India.
Conversely, India's relationship with both Russia and Turkey is more intricate. While historically reliant on Russian weaponry, India has diversified its defence partnerships. The termination of a naval ship contract with Turkey hints at potential strains. Moreover, India already possesses Russian advanced air defence systems, including the S-400.
Irrespective of the buyer, selling the S-400s would have substantial geopolitical ramifications. It could further escalate tensions between India and Pakistan and impact the delicate regional power balance.
Ultimately, the decision to sell the S-400s is a complex one for Turkey, involving weighing the potential benefits against the risks, both domestically and internationally.
