Opinion Why India Should Not Prioritize 6th Gen Fighter Jet Development Before 2040, US NGAD Program is a Lesson

The allure of developing cutting-edge 6th generation fighter jets is undeniable. However, India should proceed with caution, considering the significant strategic and economic challenges such an endeavor presents.

The United States Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program offers a sobering reality check. With an estimated cost of $300 million per unit, 6th generation jets represent an astronomical leap from the current generation of fighters. To put this in perspective, they are over three times more expensive than the Su-30MKI and significantly pricier than even the Rafale.

Beyond the initial acquisition cost, operational expenses are projected to be immense, exceeding $40,000 per hour. This represents a substantial financial burden, particularly for a developing nation like India.

Furthermore, the strategic landscape is likely to evolve drastically by the 2040s. Investing heavily in a single, extremely expensive platform might not be the most prudent approach. A more diversified strategy, encompassing advancements in unmanned aerial vehicles, directed energy weapons, and cyber warfare capabilities, could offer a more balanced and effective defense posture.

India’s own AMCA program, touted by its engineers as a “5.5 generation” fighter jet, presents a more realistic and achievable goal for the near future. Focusing on the AMCA’s development and ensuring its successful integration into the Indian Air Force would be a more pragmatic step toward modernizing India’s air power.

While the dream of fielding 6th generation fighter jets might be tempting, India would be wise to exercise restraint and prioritize a more balanced and sustainable approach to defense modernization.

 

[wallisk]

YES! Make in India KF21 Boramae jets soon as AMCA MK1 FOC will be coming only in 2055 year...

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

There is no clear difference between 5th and 6th gen jets. It is just that 6th gen jets will improve on 5th gen specialties like stealth, sensor data fusion, computational ability etc. It is not groundbreaking change.

 

[R. Singh]

Why to stop envisioning 6th gen fighter? We must start 6th gen fighter development program !

 

[Vijigishu ( विजिग्शु )]

By 2040s tejas mk2 will be ready for production. I think we should leave this primitive 5th and 6th gen technology. We should aim for 7th gen by then. World isn't ready for ADA and HAL's inter-galactic alien tech.

 

[shivkumar sinha]

Bharat will be $25-30 trillions economy in 2040 with a defence budget of $500-600 billions and capital budget of about $ 200-250 billions.At the rate of $300 millions per aircraft it will cost only $ 60 billions for 200 6th generation fighters. If you distribute this $60 billions in 6 years ,it comes a meagre amount of $10 billions per year out of $250 billions of capital budget . Bharat must go for such aircrafts to deter our adversaries.

 

[Anant]

Bharat will be $25-30 trillions economy in 2040 with a defence budget of $500-600 billions and capital budget of about $ 200-250 billions.At the rate of $300 millions per aircraft it will cost only $ 60 billions for 200 6th generation fighters. If you distribute this $60 billions in 6 years ,it comes a meagre amount of $10 billions per year out of $250 billions of capital budget . Bharat must go for such aircrafts to deter our adversaries.

Yeah, not happening. Realistically speaking, Indian GDP will be at around 12-15 trillion USD by 2039-40, assuming a growth rate of 7.5-8.5%. 25 trillion USD is a pipe dream, to put it lightly.

On a similar note, India's defence budget at this point will be somewhere in the region of 150-200 billion USD at best. You aren't getting aircraft with that kind of price tag on those budgets.

 

[kumar]

There is not much difference between 5th and 6th gen fighters. Major difference will be in employing manned and unmanned teaming.

 

[Paul]

In 2040 we will have our AMCA ready in production with GE414 engine. That's all. Please don't expect more. Of course, we can start 6th generation studies and come up with a plan of action.

 

[Paul]

There is not much difference between 5th and 6th gen fighters. Major difference will be in employing manned and unmanned teaming.

6th gen technologies are not defined yet. It can be anything...

 

[shivkumar sinha]

Yeah, not happening. Realistically speaking, Indian GDP will be at around 12-15 trillion USD by 2039-40, assuming a growth rate of 7.5-8.5%. 25 trillion USD is a pipe dream, to put it lightly.

On a similar note, India's defence budget at this point will be somewhere in the region of 150-200 billion USD at best. You aren't getting aircraft with that kind of price tag on those budgets.

My calculations are based on 9-10% growth rate ,15-20% devaluation of dollars against rupees,2-2.5% of defence budget ,40% capital budget and a period of 6 years beginning from 2040 . There may be some variations but basic results will be same .

 

[Naveen Bijoy]

Much funds needed to improve R&D .
Encourage pvt. Players.

 

[Ravishankar]

By 2040s tejas mk2 will be ready for production. I think we should leave this primitive 5th and 6th gen technology. We should aim for 7th gen by then. World isn't ready for ADA and HAL's inter-galactic alien tech.

Speaking of 6th Gen..IAF still waiting for the first Tejas MK1A.

 

[Anant]

My calculations are based on 9-10% growth rate ,15-20% devaluation of dollars against rupees,2-2.5% of defence budget ,40% capital budget and a period of 6 years beginning from 2040 . There may be some variations but basic results will be same .

Let's assume a 9% sustained growth rate, and a 20% devaluation. Assuming the baseline GDP for 2024 as 4 billion USD (it is actually 3.93 trillion), that gives you a GDP that is still just a bit below 20 trillion USD. Let's assume that our GDP somehow reaches 20 trillion USD by 2040. Our defence budget would realistically be around 1-1.25% of GDP or so, which comes to 200-250 billion USD at best. 40% of that being allocated to capital acquisitions gives you 80-100 billion USD.

Now, one question here would be why I am only taking 1-1.25% of GDP spending for defence, and not closer to 2%. The reason is very simple. India's GDP growth is fueled primarily by a relatively small chunk of the population, and is restricted to a large extent to the private sector. This means we would still have a massive number of people not paying taxes, which simply means growing the government revenue-to-GDP ratio would be very difficult. Since government revenues do not grow at the same rate as the GDP, that means the government expenditure grows at a slower pace, which then means you have lesser money to spend on defence. As a result, 1-1.25% would be a fairly realistic number.

 

[linus52]

Too many Dreamers in India. Need Engineers and Technicians to finish developing a jet engines so our planes can fly. We must learn whole concept about building fighter jets

 

[shivkumar sinha]

Let's assume a 9% sustained growth rate, and a 20% devaluation. Assuming the baseline GDP for 2024 as 4 billion USD (it is actually 3.93 trillion), that gives you a GDP that is still just a bit below 20 trillion USD. Let's assume that our GDP somehow reaches 20 trillion USD by 2040. Our defence budget would realistically be around 1-1.25% of GDP or so, which comes to 200-250 billion USD at best. 40% of that being allocated to capital acquisitions gives you 80-100 billion USD.

Now, one question here would be why I am only taking 1-1.25% of GDP spending for defence, and not closer to 2%. The reason is very simple. India's GDP growth is fueled primarily by a relatively small chunk of the population, and is restricted to a large extent to the private sector. This means we would still have a massive number of people not paying taxes, which simply means growing the government revenue-to-GDP ratio would be very difficult. Since government revenues do not grow at the same rate as the GDP, that means the government expenditure grows at a slower pace, which then means you have lesser money to spend on defence. As a result, 1-1.25% would be a fairly realistic number.

Current defence budget of Bharat is about $75 billions that is about 2% of GDP of $3.92 trillions. Current federal budget is about 14% of total GDP. There is no reason why this same ratio is not maintained when our GDP rises to $ 20-25 trillions . On the contrary ,you can expect widening of tax base in due course of time and hence increase in percentage of federal spending from present 14% to 20% . Current US federal spending is about $6.8 trillions that is about 25% of $27 trillions US GDP.

 

[NSR]

India should continue to develop its 5th Generation AMCA fighter without any reservations as it can't leap frog to 6th Generation by itself.

And then India must join UK+Italy+Japan 6th Generation FCAS consortium to participate as fourth Foundational Member by paying 1/4th of cost of development and try to to get as much technology as possible to manufacture it in India.
Joining this consortium will help India to get needed technology to assist in its 5th Generation AMCA fighter.
It may cost India about $5 billions for participation for a total of $20 billion development cost.
This is the surest way to get 6th Generation fighter by 2035.

Remember our own saga of Tejas I, Tejas IA, Tejas Mk2, TEDBF, AMCA, etc
We still do not know when HAL will deliver Tejas IA and how fast it can manufacture so be safe side and join FCAS consortium immediately.

Remember that India does not have to re-invent wheel again and again.

 

[Sandeep]

India needs to develop these crucial technology by itself. It should focus on the AMCA as when it comes and it reaches production then it will be a 5.5th generation jet. The technology and capabilities will be very similar to a 6th generation jet.

 

[Anant]

Current defence budget of Bharat is about $75 billions that is about 2% of GDP of $3.92 trillions. Current federal budget is about 14% of total GDP. There is no reason why this same ratio is not maintained when our GDP rises to $ 20-25 trillions . On the contrary ,you can expect widening of tax base in due course of time and hence increase in percentage of federal spending from present 14% to 20% . Current US federal spending is about $6.8 trillions that is about 25% of $27 trillions US GDP.

The government expenditure-to-GDP ratio has gone down somewhat over the years, as India's GDP has grown. This, again, is because of how most of our GDP is generated: By a small-ish proportion of the population, and by the private sector to a large extent. Yes, consumption expenditure makes for a large chunk of our GDP, but taxes on that (which makes up the bulk of government revenue on consumption expenditure) grows considerably more slowly.

We should remember that despite having the 5th largest economy in the world in nominal GDP terms, we still have a scenario where almost 55% of our population still receives subsidised grain. It is that disparity that acts as a major obstacle to increasing government revenues.

Keeping in mind the historical trends in reduction of the government expenditure-to-GDP ratio, even if we take a widening tax net, it only looks feasible for that ratio to increase towards 15% (up from the present 14.2%) or so over the next 12-15 years. A larger increase (going towards, say, 20% or 25%) will take far longer, as this would involve bringing up that 55% population economically to a point where they can actively contribute to other avenues of GDP growth as well.

Finally, none of that addresses the point that maintaining 9% or 10% GDP growth, which we have assumed as a starting point, is in itself a massive challenge. Our annual GDP increases in absolute terms are simply not sufficient today and not growing fast enough to allow for that kind of growth. Yes, we have structural reforms and a focus on manufacturing and infrastructure that will start to pay dividends in a few years, but just how much that will help matters remains to be seen.

 

[Avada kedavra]

Yes. Go step by step and not jump.

jumping from 2nd gwn to 4th gen caused a 40 yr mightmare in the form of tejas.

it will be far more challenging now.
master the art of 5th gen first and then go to 6th.