The recent surge in terror attacks in the Jammu region, particularly the ambush near Badnota village that claimed the lives of five Indian Army personnel, has raised concerns about the security situation in the region and the possibility of a large-scale counter-terror operation reminiscent of Operation Sarp Vinash in 2003.
The Jammu region, traditionally considered more peaceful than Kashmir, has witnessed a significant increase in terror incidents since 2021, with over 30 attacks and more than 30 fatalities among security forces. The attacks are not random but strategically planned, targeting specific dates and locations, suggesting a well-coordinated effort by terror groups.
The increased focus on Jammu is partly due to the success of security forces in cracking down on overground workers in Kashmir. Terror groups are now seeking to exploit the perceived vulnerabilities in Jammu, where the counter-terror grid is more dispersed, and escape routes are more readily available.
The situation is further complicated by the upcoming Assembly elections, which must be held by 30 September. Postponing the elections due to security concerns could strengthen the terrorists' narrative and raise questions about the government's ability to maintain order.
The attacks in Jammu are not only aimed at inflicting casualties but also at creating religious fault lines and instilling fear among the Hindu majority population. This strategy mirrors the tactics employed by terror groups in Kashmir in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
The involvement of pro-Khalistani elements in the region is also a concern, as Jammu shares a border with Punjab, a hotbed of Khalistani activity. This potential collaboration between jihadi and Khalistani groups could further exacerbate the security challenges in the region.
Given the escalating situation, the possibility of a large-scale counter-terror operation like Sarp Vinash cannot be ruled out. However, such an operation would face significant challenges due to the dispersed nature of the counter-terror grid, the availability of escape routes, and the potential for collateral damage.
The government and security forces face a difficult dilemma. A strong response is necessary to curb the growing threat of terrorism in Jammu, but any action must be carefully calibrated to avoid further instability and ensure the safety of civilians.
The situation in Jammu serves as a stark reminder that the threat of terrorism in the region is far from over. The security forces and the government must remain vigilant and adopt a multi-pronged approach to counter this threat, including strengthening intelligence gathering, improving coordination between different security agencies, and addressing the root causes of radicalization.
