IAF Not Interested in Land-Based Variant of TEDBF, Focusing on AMCA and Tejas MkII

IAF Not Interested in Land-Based Variant of TEDBF, Focusing on AMCA and Tejas MkII


The Indian Navy's vision for a new carrier-borne fighter jet, the Twin Engine Deck Based Fighter (TEDBF), seems to be encountering rough seas from the Indian Air Force (IAF). The IAF has reportedly shown little interest in the Navy's proposal for a land-based variant of the TEDBF, named the Omni-Role Combat Aircraft (ORCA).

Why the IAF Isn't on Board with ORCA​

According to a senior IAF official, developing the ORCA would be redundant. The IAF is already heavily invested in the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a domestically manufactured 5th-generation fighter jet in the same weight class (around 25 tons) as the ORCA. The AMCA boasts features like stealth technology and advanced avionics, putting it at the forefront of modern fighter jet design.

The IAF has a clear roadmap for its fighter jet fleet. This includes inducting the lighter Tejas MkII fighters (around 17.5 tons) – 200 units are planned – followed by the more advanced AMCA with an estimated procurement of 200 units post-2033. Additionally, they're looking to acquire 97 Tejas Mk1A fighters, bringing their total Tejas fleet to a substantial 220.

When questioned about the possibility of ORCA replacing the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program (likely to result in the selection of the Rafale jets), IAF officials highlighted their existing investment in infrastructure and pilot training for the 36 Rafales already in service. They see the ORCA as offering no significant technological leap over the Tejas MkII or AMCA, making it an unnecessary expense.

Navy Sails On with TEDBF​

Despite the IAF's disinterest, the TEDBF program remains a priority for the Navy. The 26-ton TEDBF is specifically designed for operation from India's aircraft carriers, and it's intended to replace their ageing MiG-29K fleet.

Looking Ahead: Collaboration or Separate Paths?​

The IAF's focus on the AMCA and Tejas MkII programs signifies a strategic shift towards self-reliance in 5th-generation fighter jet technology. The Navy's TEDBF program, however, remains crucial for maintaining their carrier-based airpower. Whether the future holds collaboration between the IAF and Navy on a joint carrier-borne fighter jet project remains to be seen.
 
Is Tejas Mk1 indigenous? The answer is no. It is an indigenous design but not fully indigenous technology. It has only 60% indigenous content as admitted by defence ministry itself. The foreign suppliers are unreliable and have political motivations to slow down Indian arms production and hence deliver in very slow rates, But if it was indigenous, it would not have been slowed down. Regarding Tejas Mk1 order, even if India places order for 10000 of it, HAL won't be able to manufacture 40/year as USA will refuse to supply so many engines stating that it will disrupt regional stability & balance of power! This is the problem with import dependency.
Tejas is slowed down by foreign players? Please show me one single instance of this. A single one.
 
100 TEDBF will use similar infrastructure and internal parts as Tejas Mk2. So, it will be feasible. Aren't we making much lesser Tejas mk1? Yes, AMCA is not a cakewalk. That is why I gave timeline of 2034-35. As for countries struggling, China, Russia are already producing their 5th gen planes. Only thwe western media propaganda says they are bad or struggling. India has gone the safer route of having air superiority fighter & not a fat truck like F35 which will always struggle as it is built like a fact cargo plane!
Oh the Russian jet is horrendous. India dumped 300 million USD and walked out. Russia itself cut down the orders by 70%.
 
306 jets orders given with a speculation of more.... even if we go by 36 jets/ year still not before a decade.
Well they are promising it and we are putting it in tender. We don’t know how much they can scale up. That is for them to decide. We will get ours in 36 months and that is the only thing that matters. Else slap on a penalty. Simple as that.

Also, where did the 306 number came from? As of December 31 2023, the total backlog is 211. This includes 70 for France and 141 for exports. 18 extra planes entered into picture on 8 January. So how did it come to 306???
 
What is the use of F18? What is the urgency to have Naval aircrafts all of a sudden?
Urgency? The contract has been open for almost a decade. And before that also Tejas was being evaluated. Not sure what else will count as urgency.
 
All indicators point to the cancellation of MRFA after election unless some foreign OEM delivers all the jets immediately in 3 years, Dassault can’t due to the 306+ backlog., so if it is MRFA then it will be Rafale (-), again even for any foreign company to setup infra, it will take 2-3 years and production will take 5 years, which will end up around the same time as 2035, so it is really pointless to continue with MRFA, currently the only foreign OEM with infra for producing jets in India is Sukhoi.
Can you please explain the 306 number? Itne kaha se aaye?
 
Not a single Indian Pvt sector has offered themselves to become partner for either AMCA or Mk 2.

HAL is the only saviour
Where is the tender? How can they offer themselves when no tender has been issued?
 
We are free economy. Your beloved private sector didn’t participate in AMCA even with good amount of Govt cajoling and in the process, few years were wasted. In those few years Mr. Anantakrishnan delivered first flight of MK1A. If you have Dassault and Rafale in your mind, well they have to wait. After all, Dassault took 5 years to deliver first Rafale with all the Indian Enhancements.
Where was the tender? Private sector is dying to participate but HAL and ADA blocked them. Read ACM Bhadoria's own comments where he blasted HAL and ADA for not involving private sector. As for first flight, the plane was to be delivered by now. More than 3 of them, in fact. Plus 18 trainers.

And Dassault delivered first Rafale in 3 years. The deal was to fast track delivery first and then implement ISE. They stuck to it. What's important is sticking to the committed timeline.
 
The private sector will participate when they see a guaranteed future. They cannot just gamble on shareholder money and hope to make a return in a similar way that PSUs can, since these private sector players will not always get a guaranteed bailout if things go wrong.

That said, HAL and Mr. Anantakrishnan made a lot of tall promises about the Tejas Mk 1A, so don't go down that route. They promised to deliver the first Tejas Mk 1A by the end of March. It only flew three days before that deadline. They are still running behind on Tejas Mk 1A deliveries, and are making nonsensical claims about delivering the first Tejas Mk 2 by the end of 2028, when it is very clear that a full regimen of flight tests takes 4-5 years at the least.

Oh, and the Rafale contract was signed in September 2016, with handovers planned from September 2019. The first Rafale was handed over in October 2019, and after training of crews in France, the first five Rafales were commissioned in July 2020. So, unlike HAL, Dassault actually managed to stick to promised delivery schedules.
Wrong buddy. They had promised to deliver 3 Mk1As by 3 Feb 2024. This has been officially published by PIB on behalf of MoD. So this is given in writing in a contract.
 
Wrong buddy. They had promised to deliver 3 Mk1As by 3 Feb 2024. This has been officially published by PIB on behalf of MoD. So this is given in writing in a contract.
Eh, I was being charitable to them. Still, you are correct, and that only strengthens the point we are making here.
 
Urgency? The contract has been open for almost a decade. And before that also Tejas was being evaluated. Not sure what else will count as urgency.
India had only 1 carrier & plenty of Mig29k a decade back. What was the point of opening a contract for naval fighters back then?
 
Surely it is possible. Just impossible when HAL is involved. They can't even make 8 trainers a year. Last year HAL administration itself said they will make at least 8 trainers but have failed to do that.
This is just your bias without basis. HAL used to make 20 Su30s about a decade back
 
Conservative enough? 🤣🤣🤣Mk2 hasn't been rolled out after 2 decades despite a direct commitment from HAL itself to roll it out in 2022. So no, it's nowhere near conservative and is guaranteed to be delayed.

As for the 'Indian plan', Indian plan is to have more MRFA fighters. Officially confirmed by IAF itself, as well as MoD.
MK2 was sanctioned in 2010 and UPA sabotaged its progress till 2014. AMCA was also sanctioned at similar time. How did 2 decades happen?
 
Is Tejas Mk1 indigenous? The answer is no. It is an indigenous design but not fully indigenous technology. It has only 60% indigenous content as admitted by defence ministry itself. The foreign suppliers are unreliable and have political motivations to slow down Indian arms production and hence deliver in very slow rates, But if it was indigenous, it would not have been slowed down. Regarding Tejas Mk1 order, even if India places order for 10000 of it, HAL won't be able to manufacture 40/year as USA will refuse to supply so many engines stating that it will disrupt regional stability & balance of power! This is the problem with import dependency.

As for limit, it will depend on raw material availability, labour availability & no other real constraint if 100% indigenous. I don't know where you are getting weird ideas but that is not even close to reality. As for demand, that purely depends on political will. Do have the lowest possible IQ to not understand "arms race avoidance"? There is no private demand for submarine & everything is govt demand. But when it is life vs death like in wars or even anticipating wars, there will be unlimited demand. Talking about demand is most foolish when it comes to security needs!

As for complexity, can you explain as to how complex is modern submarine vs older submarine & how advanced is modern manufacturing vs older manufacturing, you will see that the tooling & machinery to manufacture has become equally advanced as compared to the submarine design & features. This nearly compensates the speed of manufacturing difference.

As for cost, cost is dependent on scaling. Just look how much a colour TV costed in 1980s vs how much it costs now. I remember a colour TV costing Rs15000 for 29 inch CRT whereas now we can get 40inch LED at that rate! As one scales up, the cost goes down. Yes, there is practical limits but that limit is at least x1000 times as the production that is being done now.

For example, India manufactures 4 Tejas per year. Do you know of any company with capacity of making only 4 landing gears per year? Only 4 sets of body parts a year? Only 4 canopies a year? Only 4 sets of communication devices a year? Do you even understand how absurd it looks when you shout from rooftop that this is a practical limit? The company which is supplying 4 canopies can produce 100 canopies a year but is intentionally holding back 96% of capacity. This is why even a single military grade screw costs 300-400 rupees, although similar civilian grade ones sell at 2-3 rupees. This exorbitant cost for even small parts is a result of the holding back of capacity due to political policy I mentioned above.

The manufacturing can be increased 25x in just a few days as the labour is already present and all one needs is to enhance supply of raw materials. Workers gets fixed pay regardless of 4 is manufactured or 100 is manufactured. During current times, the workers are having an easy period with low work but still kept in job due to critical defence needs. Even most of the soldiers in the army & CAPF do useless work like training, running, digging the land, cutting logs etc as a means of keeping the soldiers active, fit and motivated so that if war starts, they will be ready for action immediately. That is the definition of idle capacity & military has the highest idle capacity for this reason
If the Tejas Mk 1A isn't fully indigenous, then neither will the Tejas Mk 2, nor will the submarines be indigenous to the same extent. Moreover, if you could actually indigenise production of all of the subsystems, you still have external bottlenecks, and that could be something as simple as rare materials.

On the other hand, you are again taking the example of the production rate of a consumer good like a TV to compare it to the production rate of a fighter.

You want me to compare prices for two fighters built in comparable numbers? Sure. The F-86 was built at a similar production rate to the F-16, though the numbers are different. A F-86 would, by today's money, cost around 2.6 million dollars each (and about 4-ish million USD if you adjusted for equality in numbers). A F-16 costs 60 million USD. Answer that, would you?

Now, you took the figure of 4. Did I, at any point, say the limit is 4? Stop trying to gaslight me. The practical limit may well be 30 or 40 or something else. That's it. Now, you don't need to manufacture exactly 30 each of 100 parts to be stuck to a production rate of 30. Even if you could manufacture 100 copies of 99 parts, but the 100th part had a production limit of 30 a year, you are getting 30 jets a year. That's it. That is how bottlenecks work. You need to scale up ALL subsystems to increase production rates.

Now, if you feel the military is buying stuff at an expensive rate, do one thing: Take a small loan from the bank, and start manufacturing screws (by your example) for the military. Go ahead, and sell it to them at 10% of what the present suppliers sell it at. I will give it to you in writing that if you can manage that profitably, you'll hold the monopoly on screws within 2 years. Heck, do that, and I'll personally pay off your loan.

Now, coming to the manufacturing itself: Sorry to burst your bubble, but you can't increase manufacturing 25-fold in a few days even if you wanted to. Manufacturing needs three things: Land (infrastructure), labour (workers), and capital (money). You can have all the labour in the world, and you can throw as much money as you want at the plant and the workers, but you won't gey anything done unless your workforce is trained sufficiently, you have a suitable supply of raw materials and intermediate goods coming in, and you have a large production line set up in a way that every single component is mass-produced profitably. That mass-production is based on supply-demand dynamics and not wishful thinking.

A worker may get paid the same if they manufacture 4 or 10 items of one kind, but producing 100 items of one kind may well require you to have 10 workers and far more machinery, etc. All that adds up to money that needs to be invested.

Finally, let me get this right. You are seriously suggesting that we should ask our soldiers and other people to work in defence factories rather than protect the country? Seriously? Have you been spending too much time studying the North Korean Army or something? Are you out of your mind?

Seriously, be practical, and stop your daydreaming. Stop comparing production rates of mass-manufactured equipment to that of highly-complex (and expensive) defence equipment manufacturing. Oh, and if what you said was true, you would see the US and China just rushing out one destroyer and submarine a month, instead of the 2-3 of each they roll out in any given year.
 
Tejas is slowed down by foreign players? Please show me one single instance of this. A single one.
One article a foreign magazine Janes which says supply problems in geopolitics:
It does not specify which part but it clearly says international geopolitics related delays
 
Total package fighters and armaments and spares and services.
Nothing free.
Even with that, it won't go anywhere near 10 billion USD. A lot of spares and services will be bundled with those of the IAF anyways, so other than getting a small number of extra spares, that expense isn't there. Similarly, the cost of India-specific enhancements won't be present this time around. Moreover, we already have the support system for most of the Rafale's munitions, so that is another reduced expense.

With everything put together, we may be looking at a 6.5-7 billion USD deal.
 
Not inducted??? It hasn't received FOC, yes, because that was the plan anyways. To prove the minimum basic required functions and then induct it, with additional features being proven and integrated over time. But it has surely been inducted and is conducting operations not just with US but even with other nations.
It has been inducted but in far fewer numbers. Also, F18s are still dominant in USN, not F35B
 
Well they are promising it and we are putting it in tender. We don’t know how much they can scale up. That is for them to decide. We will get ours in 36 months and that is the only thing that matters. Else slap on a penalty. Simple as that.

Also, where did the 306 number came from? As of December 31 2023, the total backlog is 211. This includes 70 for France and 141 for exports. 18 extra planes entered into picture on 8 January. So how did it come to 306???
Backlog of 306 soon to be of 351☝️

Now coming to your statement , idk what's giving u that idea.... u r taking the scenario of 5 years before..

Currently Dassault is no room deliver more ........we aren't getting any jets before a decade.
 
If the Tejas Mk 1A isn't fully indigenous, then neither will the Tejas Mk 2, nor will the submarines be indigenous to the same extent. Moreover, if you could actually indigenise production of all of the subsystems, you still have external bottlenecks, and that could be something as simple as rare materials.

On the other hand, you are again taking the example of the production rate of a consumer good like a TV to compare it to the production rate of a fighter.

You want me to compare prices for two fighters built in comparable numbers? Sure. The F-86 was built at a similar production rate to the F-16, though the numbers are different. A F-86 would, by today's money, cost around 2.6 million dollars each (and about 4-ish million USD if you adjusted for equality in numbers). A F-16 costs 60 million USD. Answer that, would you?

Now, you took the figure of 4. Did I, at any point, say the limit is 4? Stop trying to gaslight me. The practical limit may well be 30 or 40 or something else. That's it. Now, you don't need to manufacture exactly 30 each of 100 parts to be stuck to a production rate of 30. Even if you could manufacture 100 copies of 99 parts, but the 100th part had a production limit of 30 a year, you are getting 30 jets a year. That's it. That is how bottlenecks work. You need to scale up ALL subsystems to increase production rates.

Now, if you feel the military is buying stuff at an expensive rate, do one thing: Take a small loan from the bank, and start manufacturing screws (by your example) for the military. Go ahead, and sell it to them at 10% of what the present suppliers sell it at. I will give it to you in writing that if you can manage that profitably, you'll hold the monopoly on screws within 2 years. Heck, do that, and I'll personally pay off your loan.

Now, coming to the manufacturing itself: Sorry to burst your bubble, but you can't increase manufacturing 25-fold in a few days even if you wanted to. Manufacturing needs three things: Land (infrastructure), labour (workers), and capital (money). You can have all the labour in the world, and you can throw as much money as you want at the plant and the workers, but you won't gey anything done unless your workforce is trained sufficiently, you have a suitable supply of raw materials and intermediate goods coming in, and you have a large production line set up in a way that every single component is mass-produced profitably. That mass-production is based on supply-demand dynamics and not wishful thinking.

A worker may get paid the same if they manufacture 4 or 10 items of one kind, but producing 100 items of one kind may well require you to have 10 workers and far more machinery, etc. All that adds up to money that needs to be invested.

Finally, let me get this right. You are seriously suggesting that we should ask our soldiers and other people to work in defence factories rather than protect the country? Seriously? Have you been spending too much time studying the North Korean Army or something? Are you out of your mind?

Seriously, be practical, and stop your daydreaming. Stop comparing production rates of mass-manufactured equipment to that of highly-complex (and expensive) defence equipment manufacturing. Oh, and if what you said was true, you would see the US and China just rushing out one destroyer and submarine a month, instead of the 2-3 of each they roll out in any given year.
Tejas Mk1 is the beginning, not the end. Tejas Mk2 will use lot of commonalities from Tejas & indigenise parts which are not indigenous now. That is how Tejas Mk2 will be indigenous but after 2030.

I gave you the example to say why most of the parts are underproduced and with same labour, one can ramp up the production to much greater degree. As for 1 out of 100 part which has bottleneck, one only needs to set up additional unit to make that part only. This means only 2% additional investment for scaling up by a factor of 20-25. This is no big deal.

Training of workforce does not make years. It only takes few months. If there are already experienced workers, just make them supervisors and add 2-3 newbies to the team. They will learn on the go as they start working. Teething time may be 3-6 months at best. Also, many workers from automobile & electronic industry can be pulled in if needed.

Also, I am not saying it is possible to lower cost in current rate of orders. But if the orders are scaled by 20-25 times, the screw can be sold at 20 rupees instead of 300. As for price comparison of F86 & F16, in defence there is no price equivalent of inflation as calculated in civilian CPI. It all is context based. Till 1980s, if USA overcharged, countries would simply buy from USSR. But after 1990, Western states jacked up the price as they became monopoly, not because its cost or production increased

I am not saying soldiers should work in factories but giving examples of idle capacities with armed forces across all division - manpower to industry - everything has idle capacity of over 90%.

As for rates of production, what I am saying is 100% true. The reason why USA & China don't ramp up is because they don't want arms race. They all need oil & other trade with 3rd parties which will be disturbed if they feel threatened. Remember that the world runs on natural resource trade, especially fossil fuels. Even a slight disturbance will have serious consequences. This is why the restraint and lower number of production is done, not due to cost issues. This is also why the cost of defence weapons are bloated - to reduce demand & to fleece any country in times of distress.
 
Backlog of 306 soon to be of 351☝️

Now coming to your statement , idk what's giving u that idea.... u r taking the scenario of 5 years before..

Currently Dassault is no room deliver more ........we aren't getting any jets before a decade.
Went to the link. Apart from the headline, nothing else comes. Here is the official report from Dassault itself.
So what I am talking about is very much the current situation. We will get the first jets within 36 months.
 

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