Acquiring 110 F-35 Stealth Jets May Cost India $80 Billion for 40-Year Life Cycle, While Similar Rafale F4 Stands at $48 Billion

India's ongoing efforts to modernize its Air Force (IAF) have brought two advanced fighter jets into focus: the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and the Dassault Rafale F4.

A detailed cost analysis, considering both acquisition and 40-year life cycle costs (LCC), reveals a significant financial disparity between the two platforms if India were to procure 110 units of either aircraft.

Life cycle costs provide a holistic view of the long-term financial implications, encompassing not only the initial purchase but also operating, maintenance, and support expenses throughout the aircraft's operational life.

The F-35, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, is produced in three variants: the F-35A (conventional takeoff and landing), F-35B (short takeoff and vertical landing), and F-35C (carrier-based). For the IAF's needs, the F-35A is the most suitable due to its compatibility with land-based operations and its lower price point compared to the other variants.

As of 2023, increased production and economies of scale have driven down the F-35A's unit cost. Lockheed Martin and US government data indicate a flyaway cost of approximately $82.5 million per unit. However, international sales typically involve added expenses for training, spare parts, and support equipment, raising the effective unit cost to an estimated $100-110 million.

For this analysis, an export price of $110 million per unit is assumed. This places the total acquisition cost for 110 F-35As at roughly $12.1 billion. This figure includes initial spares, training, and basic support infrastructure, but excludes weapons packages, which would represent a further cost dependent on Indian requirements.

The Rafale F4, an advanced 4.5-generation multi-role fighter, is already in service with the IAF, with 36 units procured under a 2016 agreement. The F4 variant represents an upgrade over the previous F3R standard, featuring enhanced radar capabilities, improved sensors, and advanced network-centric warfare capabilities.

The cost of the Rafale has been variable, contingent on specific contract terms and customization. India's initial purchase of 36 Rafales totaled €7.87 billion (approximately $8.7 billion at 2016 exchange rates), which equates to around $242 million per unit. This price included India-specific enhancements, weapons, spares, and infrastructure.

However, subsequent contracts with other nations, such as Egypt and Indonesia, point to a lower flyaway cost of $115-130 million per unit for the base aircraft, with additional costs for customizations and support. For this comparison, a unit cost of $130 million for the F4 variant is used, representing a standardized export price without extensive India-specific modifications.

At $130 million per unit, the total acquisition cost for 110 Rafale F4s would be approximately $14.3 billion. This estimate accounts for basic spares and training, but excludes weapons and additional infrastructure, the costs of which would depend on the IAF's specific needs.

40-Year Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Comparison​

To estimate the total financial commitment, a 40-year service life, consistent with modern fighter jet lifespans, is assumed. The LCC includes acquisition, operation, maintenance, personnel, upgrades, and spares.

The F-35 is recognized for its high operating and maintenance costs, largely due to its stealth features, sophisticated electronics, and complex logistics. Data from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) and other sources can be adapted to create an India-specific estimate.

The F-35A's operating cost is approximately $33,000 per flight hour (as of 2023), although Lockheed Martin has stated a goal to reduce this to $25,000 by 2025. A conservative average of $30,000 per flight hour is used for this 40-year projection.

Assuming each F-35 flies 250 hours annually (a standard estimate for fighter aircraft), the annual operating cost per aircraft is $7.5 million. Over 40 years, this amounts to $300 million per aircraft, and $33 billion for a fleet of 110.

Maintenance costs for the F-35 are substantial, driven by its stealth coatings, advanced sensors, and software updates. Estimates suggest maintenance accounts for 60-70% of operating costs. Assuming 65% of the operating cost ($19,500 per flight hour), the total maintenance cost over 40 years is approximately $21.45 billion for 110 units.

Over a 40-year period, periodic upgrades (including software, avionics, and stealth enhancements) and spares could add 20-30% to the LCC. Assuming 25% of the combined operating and maintenance costs, an additional $13.61 billion is projected.

Therefore, the total LCC for 110 F-35As is estimated as follows:

• Acquisition: $12.1 billion
• Operating: $33 billion
• Maintenance: $21.45 billion
• Upgrades and Spares: $13.61 billion
• Total: $80.16 billion

The Rafale, while not a stealth aircraft, is known for its reliability, versatility, and lower operating costs compared to fifth-generation fighters. Data from the French Air Force and the IAF's existing Rafale fleet provide a basis for cost estimation.

The Rafale's operating cost is approximately $16,500 per flight hour, significantly lower than the F-35 due to simpler maintenance and the absence of stealth-related upkeep. Assuming 250 flight hours per year, the annual operating cost per Rafale is $4.125 million.

Over 40 years, this amounts to $165 million per aircraft, and $18.15 billion for a fleet of 110.

Maintenance costs for the Rafale are estimated at 50-60% of operating costs due to its robust design and lower complexity. Assuming 55% ($9,075 per flight hour), the total maintenance cost over 40 years is approximately $9.98 billion for 110 units.

Upgrades and spares for the Rafale, including radar enhancements and weapon integration, are estimated at 20-25% of combined operating and maintenance costs. Assuming 22.5%, an additional $6.28 billion is projected.

Therefore, the total LCC for 110 Rafale F4s is estimated as follows:

• Acquisition: $14.3 billion
• Operating: $18.15 billion
• Maintenance: $9.98 billion
• Upgrades and Spares: $6.28 billion
• Total: $48.71 billion

Comparative Summary and Implications​

While the initial acquisition cost for 110 Rafale F4s ($14.3 billion) is $2.2 billion higher than that of 110 F-35As ($12.1 billion), the long-term financial picture significantly favors the Rafale. The F-35's 40-year LCC is $31.45 billion higher than the Rafale F4, representing a 64.6% increase.

This substantial difference is primarily attributed to the F-35's significantly higher operating and maintenance costs, stemming from its stealth technology, complex electronics, and logistical demands.

The Rafale F4 presents a more cost-effective option over the long term, offering substantial savings that could potentially be allocated to indigenous programs or other defense priorities. However, the F-35's fifth-generation capabilities, including stealth and advanced sensor fusion, offer a strategic advantage that the Rafale cannot match.

The IAF's ultimate decision will likely involve a careful balancing of strategic requirements, budgetary constraints, and long-term goals for self-reliance. The Rafale F4, with its lower LCC and existing operational integration within the IAF, may be favored for its cost-effectiveness.

 

[Rohit Singh]

Very nice analysis! I believe in which case progressive buying of 5th gen planes should be done. We can start with 2 squads of F35 planes which will be good enough in maintaining air superiority in Indian territory, safekeeping the valuable targets, and high value assets for now and also understanding the challenges involved in managing these assets (planes) with respect to cost then decide if we need more or not. Meanwhile, the government can use the leftover funds to pump up the AMCA pipeline parallelly. I don't see any long-term war-like scenarios in the next 10-15 years considering the economies game play both left (Pak) and right (China) of India, so buying in bulk is just overestimating the worst-case scenario exponentially.

 

[Anant]

AMCA-AF's MTOW is 20-21 tonnes in stealth mode, and 25-27 tonnes in "beast mode". Meanwhile, TEDBF's MTOW was stated as 26 tonnes (as stated by ADA; check wiki pls). Hence, weight factor should not be problem (26 tonne design is with STOBAR ops in mind).

MTOW doesn't matter as much as payload does.

AMCA-AF is projected to be about 12 tons at empty weight, and be capable of a 7 ton payload (plus 6.5 tons maximum fuel) for a 25 ton MTOW.

TEDBF is projected to be about 13 tons at empty weight, and carry about 7.5 tons of payload (plus 6.5 tons maximum fuel) for a 26 ton MTOW.

This shows that AMCA-AF and TEDBF are comparable. However, if you navalise AMCA, you will be adding 2.5-3 tons in empty weight, which will translate to that much lesser fuel and/or payload, impacting it's usefulness.

 

[bhaitee]

I welcome Indo-US deal for selling F-35 to India. Of course, the cost is very high but security of our country needs to be strengthen properly in view of neighbouring countries like China, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Today, why Pakistan and Turkey are upset over the deal? Our make in India shall continue and parallely this type of deal to upgrade our armed forces need to be done for operational acquaintance with upgrade systems. And some point of time, our country will definitely reach the highest point of technological & operational excellence.

 

[Diego]

From what I've read, the F-35 needs a LOT of maintenance, not just in money but also in time. That means fewer F-35s than Rafales would be available at any given time. It's one more thing to consider.

 

[BhVSRao]

Our domestic industry is on the cusp of producing a large number of jet fighters. Improve it further so that production happens with more automation and in a timely manner. Do not plan to import a large number of foreign fighter jets. Expedite Tejas Mk2 and AMCA.TEDBF for 50 aircraft will be more cost-effective than ordering 26 additional Rafales for the IN.After Tejas Mk2 development in 2030, take up a 6th gen fighter jet program for the Navy and IAF. Do plan for it beforehand.

I agree with the views expressed by the author. I opine the development of 6 gen aircraft should be a codevelopment with countries having adequate design experience and assigned to HAL or a consortium of Indian Industry. The co development should have adequate IPR Protections and utilise an indigenous engine developed for AMCA. The life cycle cost should be reduced to net present value and compared.

 

[DREAM 24*7]

Why should we need 110 F-35As? We need only 2 or 3 squadrons of F-35As. Along with this, we should order another 2 or 3 squadrons of Rafale F4s also. We already have the ecosystem for the Rafale. By that time the AMCA will also be ready to roar.

 

[Pad UwU]

Both F-35 and Rafale are expensive as hell 😹😹😹. Gripen is way better bang for the bucks... Or negotiate Su-57 for a better deal 🙃😜.

 

[Phantom]

Cost doesn't matter much to Bharat now. In two-three years, we will be the third-largest economy in the world with $5 trillion. If Poland, with a $1 trillion GDP, can afford it, so can we.

We definitely need 2-3 squadrons as a deterrence to both Pakistan and China's 5th gen jets, but not 110, we can get cheapest 4th gen jets to increase squadron strength.

 

[BCharlie]

And we don’t need 110 F-35s. Just a stop-gap arrangement of two squadrons of F-35s would be enough, mostly for strategic deterrence against the rabid jihadis on the west and the belligerent expansionists on the north. This will have, apart from strategic deterrence, many other advantages:

1. India will get first-hand experience of handling the latest 5th Gen technology birds;
2. AMCA would benefit from this first-hand experience;
3. IAF would get at least some relief from its fast-depleting strength;
4. This will put pressure on France to reduce Rafale tender for 110 F4 Rafales, which most likely would get selected after further grueling discussions in 2030s.

Sir ji, the way I read between the lines... USA wants our money. They will arm-twist us, pressure some other portions of life, & force us to buy 40 F-35s and 110 F-21s, which nobody is buying. They may give us local assembly & some non-critical parts to be manufactured locally for F-21s;

 

[BCharlie]

1 squadron of F-35s and 3-4 squadrons of Su-57Es are enough until AMCA.

Good idea, sir ji... By the way, American fighter planes, etc., only have software compatibility with US/American equipment, missiles, guided bombs, EW war suites, comms, radar detecting & locking for attacking enemies in the air & on the ground, etc. So, we buy a fighter where we cannot use Russian-based & Russian-tuned weaponry, and the Americans will not allow mods to the software of their equipment.

 

[Atanu Karmakar]

We need 5th gen fighter jets and we can't rely upon HAL because it's not possible to induct a significant amount of AMCA before 2035. In my opinion, if our airforce needs 110 fighter jets, we can go for Rafale if France agrees to transfer technology. It will be cheaper because we will make it in India and we already have experience operating Rafale jets. In fact, maybe our navy is also going to buy Rafale M fighters. But if we need to induct 5th gen fighters immediately to counter Chinese fighters, Sukhoi 57 and F35 are both good options, especially I like the Sukhoi 57. But we can't induct a significant amount of 5th gen foreign-made jets because we have already invested in our AMCA project and, in my opinion, we don't need so many stealth fighters, especially if they come with usage restrictions (F35). Inducting 2/3 squadrons of stealth fighters would be fine in my opinion.

 

[ravichandran p]

With this much money at stake, we could easily develop our own fighter jets of superior technology and export. What is required is more research and will to do

 

[Leored]

Don't trust their contract. In Rafale they have already committed 8000cr technology transfer in 2016 which is offset and now they broken it long back. Intresting fact is that intrest charge panelty clause is also in it in favour of India. Still we are not doing anything. Don't count 80 or 48 b usd this are just fake value on papers once deal is finalized they tend to change it with new terms. Same happened with fighter engine contract. Make is India is best get private companies like TATA adani mahendra etc on role

 

[Leored]

Era of drones already started and AI drone soon to come with autonomous mode. Why to waste money behind fighters when u can send thousands of stealth drones thousands of miles saving human life and in same cost. In 48b usd u can send millions of kamikaze drones in war zone. No worries for maintenance and human casuality.

 

[Prem Jain]

F35 may be number one aircraft, but the operating cost as well as the logistics (ALS) that should be supported by US will make us their slaves. Also only 30% of the aircraft will be flying at any time when compared to the minimum 65% of the fleet. It’s better to go for other option rather then to put our heads under the saw.