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India's pursuit of 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) under the 4.5-generation category is facing increasing scrutiny as regional threats rapidly evolve.
With China already operating an estimated 200-250 fifth-generation J-20A fighters, and reportedly having another 200 in production, along with the recent unveiling of its sixth-generation strike aircraft prototype, the Indian Air Force (IAF) finds itself at a critical juncture.
Continuing to invest in 4++ generation fighters could leave India at a significant technological disadvantage in the near future.
The MRFA tender was initially conceived to acquire advanced 4.5-generation fighters to address the IAF's dwindling squadron strength. However, these aircraft may not provide the necessary edge in a battlespace increasingly dominated by fifth-generation and beyond platforms.
The lack of low observability in 4.5-generation aircraft makes them vulnerable to fifth-generation stealth fighters like the J-20A. Furthermore, fifth-generation fighters excel in sensor fusion and network-centric warfare, capabilities where 4.5-generation aircraft lag behind. Against integrated air defence systems and modern adversary fighter fleets, 4.5-generation aircraft face a higher risk of attrition.
China's substantial fleet of operational J-20A fighters and its development of a sixth-generation strike aircraft underscore its commitment to maintaining air superiority.
Moreover, China's efforts to export platforms like the FC-31, a lighter fifth-generation fighter, could lead to the proliferation of advanced fighters in the region, potentially even reaching Pakistan.
This evolving threat landscape necessitates a reassessment of India's approach to the MRFA tender. Many defence experts argue that the IAF must prioritize acquiring fifth-generation platforms to maintain a credible deterrent.
A combination of indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) and off-the-shelf fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 could strengthen the IAF's capabilities while supporting India's domestic defence industry.
The IAF's leadership must strongly advocate for fifth-generation platforms in the MRFA tender to ensure India's continued air superiority. Approving another generation of 4.5-generation fighters could not only result in wasted resources but also undermine India's ability to counter evolving threats in the Indo-Pacific region.