Can India's MQ-9B Drones Survive Against China-Pak Anti-Missile Systems after Houthis Claims

India's recent acquisition of 31 MQ-9B drones, a multi-billion dollar investment intended to enhance its military capabilities, has come under scrutiny following reports that Houthi rebels in Yemen have repeatedly downed these sophisticated machines.

The ease with which the Houthis, a non-state actor with limited resources, have reportedly targeted these drones raises serious questions about their survivability in a potential conflict against the technologically advanced militaries of China and Pakistan.

The Houthi claims, which include the downing of nine such drones since October 2023, have not been independently verified. However, they highlight the MQ-9B's vulnerability, particularly its susceptibility to enemy fire due to its relatively slow speed and limited defensive capabilities.

The drones, though equipped with advanced features for intelligence gathering and precision strikes, lack the agility and robust countermeasures to evade threats from even rudimentary offensive platforms.

While the Houthis' alleged success may be attributed to their localized knowledge and tactics, the concern remains that India's adversaries, with their far superior technological and military prowess, could exploit these vulnerabilities even more effectively. This raises concerns about the effectiveness of these drones in a high-intensity conflict scenario, particularly against sophisticated anti-missile systems.

India's acquisition of the MQ-9Bs is part of a broader strategy to modernize its military and address security challenges on its borders, especially with China.

The drones, with their extended range and endurance, were expected to provide critical intelligence and strike capabilities in the vast and challenging terrain of the Himalayas.

However, the recent events in Yemen have underscored the potential limitations of these drones and the need for a comprehensive assessment of their survivability in a contested airspace.

While General Atomics, the manufacturer of the MQ-9Bs, has remained silent on the Houthi claims, the Indian military will undoubtedly be analyzing these developments closely.

The effectiveness and survivability of these drones in a potential conflict scenario are crucial factors that will shape India's defence strategy and future acquisitions.

 

[Instant Karma]

You know what, I'll bite for a second. The deal value is a tad short of 4 billion USD, but for the sake of strengthening your argument, let's assume the deal value is 4 billion USD. Divide that over 500 ships, and you get a unit cost of 8 million USD each.

The ships closest to that price point are the Car Nicobar-class patrol boats. These are very small boats with relatively high operating costs, a small range, and practically no defensive weaponry.

If you somehow managed to get 500 of them, where would you bring the crews (around 14,500 men), and the operational infrastructure? That alone would constitute such an expense so as to make the whole thing unviable.

But they will be locally built with a 30 years lifespan.

 

[Instant Karma]

100 ships of 10000 tons each, eh? What are you building them of, exactly? Even aluminium is comparably expensive, and that assumes you somehow manage to get 100 blocks of aluminium weighing 10,000 tons each to float.

See, 3 billion or 4 billion USD is a very large sum of money. No denying that either. These drones aren't cheap either. However, these drones are needed for monitoring the IOR and borders, and we don't have alternatives. Hence, we get what is available.

We can build 100 surface ships of 10000 tons weight category easily.

cost of one kg of ships category steel costs 100 rupees.

so one tons will be 1 lakhs

10000 tons X 1 lakhs will be 100 crs of rupees.

26000 crs ÷ 100 ships= 260 crs

the complete structure of the ship will cost maximum 100 cr including all fittings.
that leaves 160 crs for the guns and missiles and torpedoes.

we will only use locally made weapons such as

BHEL gun

BDL torpedoes

BEL radars.

The ships weapons will be simple types.

we can reduce the weight of the ships to 5000 t 6000 tons as per requirements.

 

[Anant]

But they will be locally built with a 30 years lifespan.

The drones also have a 30 year lifespan. Also, the skills and expertise we will get in operating and supplying some parts for will help our drone industry. On the other hand, we can already build patrol vessels, so there is little gain in terms of pushing the envelope.

 

[Instant Karma]

Even $10Bln is a huge amount, but we still paid that to get only 36 slow moving Rafale that IAF liked it or not, It may not needed for IAF, but these drones are must for the Navy to reduce cost in the long run.

That was also a very bad decision. France was ready to transfer the production line to India as nobody was ready to buy Rafale fighters. Buying 36 Rafale fighters off the shelf is the biggest blunder. At present we would be in a comfortable position if Rafale fighters were built in India just like SU 30 MKI.

 

[Instant Karma]

The drones also have a 30 year lifespan. Also, the skills and expertise we will get in operating and supplying some parts for will help our drone industry. On the other hand, we can already build patrol vessels, so there is little gain in terms of pushing the envelope.

I think, our local drones industry is already capable and can build similar drones at lower cost. Iran is also building similar drones.

 

[Anant]

We can build 100 surface ships of 10000 tons weight category easily.

cost of one kg of ships category steel costs 100 rupees.

so one tons will be 1 lakhs

10000 tons X 1 lakhs will be 100 crs of rupees.

26000 crs ÷ 100 ships= 260 crs

the complete structure of the ship will cost maximum 100 cr including all fittings.
that leaves 160 crs for the guns and missiles and torpedoes.

we will only use locally made weapons such as

BHEL gun

BDL torpedoes

BEL radars.

The ships weapons will be simple types.

we can reduce the weight of the ships to 5000 t 6000 tons as per requirements.

1. 1 ton of steel, as you buy it, will give you a large block of steel. Getting it into ship-shape requires money, which you haven't accounted for.

2. Do you think you can get a 3" gun plus radars plus torpedoes plus missiles for 160 crores per ship (less than 20 million USD)? You do realise this isn't the 1960s, right?

3. Here's a reference for cost: A single 3" gun license-built in India costs around 185 crore INR. Oh, and that doesn't include ammunition, support, spares or anything else. It also doesn't include any sensor systems.

 

[Anant]

I think, our local drones industry is already capable and can build similar drones at lower cost. Iran is also building similar drones.

They don't. Show me a drone that is comparable to the MQ-9 that is built in India.

 

[Anant]

Better solution will be to build many surface ships armed with missiles. They will boost local economy and will have a life span of 30 years.

If you take a ship armed with, say, 8 BrahMos missiles and a 3" gun plus some self-defence systems, you are looking at a unit cost of around 250 million each at the least. That means 12-16 ships, but these would have far higher operational costs and wouldn't give the same level of coverage.

 

[Instant Karma]

1. 1 ton of steel, as you buy it, will give you a large block of steel. Getting it into ship-shape requires money, which you haven't accounted for.

2. Do you think you can get a 3" gun plus radars plus torpedoes plus missiles for 160 crores per ship (less than 20 million USD)? You do realise this isn't the 1960s, right?

3. Here's a reference for cost: A single 3" gun license-built in India costs around 185 crore INR. Oh, and that doesn't include ammunition, support, spares or anything else. It also doesn't include any sensor systems.

As I said, it is a rough estimate. The size and cost can vary 50% up or the size will be reduced by 4000 tons. That will save another 40 crs. Apart from that, these ships will stop the illegal mining and fishing activities by the Chinese vessels.

 

[Anant]

That was also a very bad decision. France was ready to transfer the production line to India as nobody was ready to buy Rafale fighters. Buying 36 Rafale fighters off the shelf is the biggest blunder. At present we would be in a comfortable position if Rafale fighters were built in India just like SU 30 MKI.

France was willing to set up a second line in India. They weren't willing to shift the French line to India, as even without export orders, the lines in France would be busy fulfilling orders for the French Air Force and French Navy.

 

[Anant]

As I said, it is a rough estimate. The size and cost can vary 50% up or the size will be reduced by 4000 tons. That will save another 40 crs. Apart from that, these ships will stop the illegal mining and fishing activities by the Chinese vessels.

You can drop the size of the ship to 1,000 tons, but you still aren't getting much of anything on it. At that point, you'd have more of a yacht with a few machine guns and a 3" gun on it, which would be useless.

Essentially, the point where a ship like this becomes feasible is when displacement comes down to 500-ish tons, at which point the ships themselves arr individually not as capable.

 

[Praveen]

Instead of wasting money like acquiring this thing Navy can just develop MRSV with capability to launch drones using EMALS - currently we developed a technology demonstrator capable of launching upto 400kg. Add arrestor cables developed from vikrant class aircraft carrier. Make it into drone carrier. Make drones like Tapas and hermes-900 - especially upgrade it to carry more payload and higher speed. If we have 6 such ships then it will suppliment the aircraft carriers and monitor the Indian Ocean at the same time.

 

[Anant]

Instead of wasting money like acquiring this thing Navy can just develop MRSV with capability to launch drones using EMALS - currently we developed a technology demonstrator capable of launching upto 400kg. Add arrestor cables developed from vikrant class aircraft carrier. Make it into drone carrier. Make drones like Tapas and hermes-900 - especially upgrade it to carry more payload and higher speed. If we have 6 such ships then it will suppliment the aircraft carriers and monitor the Indian Ocean at the same time.

1. MRSVs with EMALS will be considerably more expensive than these drones will be, even though those ships have other purposes.

2. The EMALS set we have still has a very long way to go before we can launch drones from it.

3. Any drone carrier is still atleast half a decade away.

4. To get the same level of coverage as the drones, you'd need multiple ships, at which point both the capital and operational costs would be far, far higher.

See, we need the MRSVs, but they are not a substitute to the drones.

 

[Sudha]

They haven't, but okay. The only time one can say they technically screwed us over was during the Kargil War. Even so, even the Bhikaristanis weren't given access to GPS.

You think F404 is genuinely a supply line thing? At present US is hitting Bharat hard because of collaboration with Russia. Also US has proven itself to be very very unreliable.

 

[Praveen]

1. MRSVs with EMALS will be considerably more expensive than these drones will be, even though those ships have other purposes.

2. The EMALS set we have still has a very long way to go before we can launch drones from it.

3. Any drone carrier is still atleast half a decade away.

4. To get the same level of coverage as the drones, you'd need multiple ships, at which point both the capital and operational costs would be far, far higher.

See, we need the MRSVs, but they are not a substitute to the drones.

Bro what I meant previously is to also upgrade the MRSV into a drone carrier and operate drones from the ship. These reaper drones are too expensive, we could use this funds to develop both the ship and drones

 

[Srinivas Nirmal Kumar Avula]

Government must be cautious before singing the agreement, it must ensure availability of critical spare parts of MQ-9B Drones during it's lifetime

 

[Koorma]

When they can delay delivery of the engines, we can delay the order for this drone.

 

[मित्र]

When they can delay delivery of the engines, we can delay the order for this drone.

Need to scrap it completely

 

[Anant]

You think F404 is genuinely a supply line thing? At present US is hitting Bharat hard because of collaboration with Russia. Also US has proven itself to be very very unreliable.

My personal opinion of the F404 saga is that the delay is a mix of geopolitical pressure courtesy of the Americans coupled with supply chain challenges resulting from the multitude of wars we have going. It isn't one or the other, but rather a combination of the two.

 

[Aayush Pratap]

Did these geniuses just realise after all this time that it's a drone and not a fighter jet? Of course it's going to get shot down in contested airspace. Seriously hope it's just bs and not the truth. Besides, as usual LM has set a deadline after which they intend to jack up the price. When all this tomfoolery is over, we'll still end up buying them, only at a higher price cuz that's what we do. Jai Ho

 

[Anant]

Bro what I meant previously is to also upgrade the MRSV into a drone carrier and operate drones from the ship. These reaper drones are too expensive, we could use this funds to develop both the ship and drones

Yeah... these funds aren't going to be enough for that. Moreover, we need to increase monitoring the IOR today, not a decade from now. Oh, and if you start using MRSVs like small OPVs (that is, keeping them at sea for prolonged periods with regular sorties and the like without the requisite maintenance), they will be worn down very quickly.

Boss, those funds will not be enough to develop both the MRSV and the drones. That said, the MRSV design does need to include drones if we go for LHDs rather than LPDs in that project.

However, the reason why I say diverting MQ-9 funds there won't work is also because we need those surveillance capabilities sooner rather than later. As much as I would like to believe otherwise, MRSV is atleast 8-10 years away.

Finally, having a drone carrier doesn't mean you can or should use said carrier for surveillance only. Doing so is an excellent way of wearing your ship down very quickly.

 

[Sos]

Mq9 is same drone that killed Iran's top officials
I strongly think it is a good drone and must be procured as lot of time is already spent

 

[Invi Pass]

TWell there aren't any drones that fly at supersonic speed except for what people now call as UAP or earlier UFOs. I do not think they are alien spacecraft but certainly advanced technology developed by Lockheed or Darpa to overwhelm an enemy like Russia or China if there is a world war. Using them against Yemeni militants will be an over kill.

However my sources tell me that they are flying over Iran.

 

[beencensured]

They don't. Show me a drone that is comparable to the MQ-9 that is built in India.

When it is too expensive to replace, when you cannot afford to lose and are such an easy target then why buy such expensive things? Obvious, it has no offensive abilities against our enemies and so worse then Tapas. Originally these drones were just to be use against terrist world wide, not against countries or states.

 

[Anant]

When it is too expensive to replace, when you cannot afford to lose and are such an easy target then why buy such expensive things? Obvious, it has no offensive abilities against our enemies and so worse then Tapas. Originally these drones were just to be use against terrist world wide, not against countries or states.

1. The MQ-9B is a weaponised drone, in case you didn't know. We are also getting weapons for these.

2. Yes, a lost MQ-9 would be expensive, but we aren't exactly planning to use them in scenarios where they'd be lost in peacetime. We won't be flying these over Bhikaristan or someplace.

3. The MQ-9 cannot be directly compared to the Tapas due to the difference in operational parameters. Do try to understand that it doesn't matter if you have a thousand Tapas drones that can fly up to 18,000 ft if the mission requirement calls for flying to, say, 20,000 ft. Similarly, the lower endurance of the Tapas limits the patrol range over the ocean.

4. The IN and IAF are getting small numbers of the Tapas as well, which shows that they plan on using those to complement the MQ-9. They aren't direct substitutes.

 

[Sandeep]

These are very expensive drones but the best on the market. We will mainly use it to carry out surveillance, intelligence, tracking, EW, SIGINT, COMINT and for the navy it will useful to track ships and submarines. All drones are vulnerable in a contested air space as they can’t fly fast enough or detect any incoming missiles or deploy flares to protect itself. We will mainly use these drones to conduct strikes, terrorists, bases or military positions from across the border within the safety of our air space.

If this deal is too expensive then an alternative would be to buy similar type of drones from Israel which will be very good, use similar type of weapons and technology but it will be at a much cheaper price and lifetime expenses.