China and Pakistan's Growing Stealth Fighter Fleet a "Grave Threat" to India's Deterrence, Warns Retired Pilot

A retired Indian Air Force (IAF) Jaguar pilot, Vijainder K Thakur, has issued a stark warning about the growing disparity in stealth fighter capabilities between India and its potential adversaries, China and Pakistan.

In a recent opinion piece, he predicts a concerning scenario for India's aerial defence by 2030, where the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) could operate two squadrons of J-35A stealth fighters (approximately 40 aircraft) and the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) could double its J-20 fleet to 400.

In contrast, Thakur argues that the IAF is unlikely to have any operational stealth fighters by 2030. At best, it might have placed an initial order for the indigenously developed Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), which is still under development. This looming stealth technology gap poses a significant challenge to India's defence capabilities.

Stealth fighters like the J-20 and J-35A possess advanced avionics and weaponry, including air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles that can be launched without detection by conventional radar systems. This capability could allow adversaries to neutralize Indian defence before they can even detect an incoming attack.

Thakur contends that this widening disparity undermines India's military deterrence, particularly given its geopolitical situation with ongoing tensions with both China and Pakistan. He stresses the need for both peace-building efforts and a robust military buildup but criticizes India's current pace in achieving these goals.

Thakur's analysis highlights several key concerns:

• The stealth advantage: Stealth fighters' reduced radar cross-section makes them difficult to detect and track, allowing them to operate with a significant tactical advantage.
• Advanced weaponry: The J-20 and J-35A can deploy advanced missiles that can engage targets before being detected by Indian radar systems.
• Deterrence gap: The lack of indigenous stealth fighters by 2030 could undermine India's ability to deter aggression from its adversaries.
• Urgency for action: Thakur emphasizes the need for urgent action to address the stealth capability gap and maintain a strategic balance in the region.

This warning serves as a wake-up call for Indian policymakers. Addressing the stealth capability gap is crucial for safeguarding India's national security and maintaining its strategic autonomy in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.

While India continues to pursue indigenous solutions like the AMCA, it may need to consider interim measures to ensure its air defenses remain robust in the face of growing regional threats.

 

[sanket]

Russia may offer Su-57 in Jan 2025, Putin Visit to Bharat with Make in India Plus Export, second HAL should upgrade offer 72 Su-57 Instead of 72 Su-30 MKI

 

[Taus Melek]

The only people ignoring this is the government, military and scientific hierarchy in India.

 

[M S Chatterji]

Already a bankrupt country will go into more bankruptcy with all these purchases. Their bankruptcy is good for india.

 

[Neal.B]

If Trump permits, 150 made in India F35 with indigenous weapon integration right for approximately 35 billion dollar over the next 8-10 years and voila!!!
Otherwise Su57 is the only alternative.

 

[Rudra]

Already a bankrupt country will go into more bankruptcy with all these purchases. Their bankruptcy is good for india.

They are not bankrupt on military matter

 

[Rudra]

If Trump permits, 150 made in India F35 with indigenous weapon integration right for approximately 35 billion dollar over the next 8-10 years and voila!!!
Otherwise Su57 is the only alternative.

Govt doing just nothing

 

[Rinku Pandey]

Already a bankrupt country will go into more bankruptcy with all these purchases. Their bankruptcy is good for india.

They may be bankrupt but their military is not and India a $5 trillion economy with bankrupt military.

 

[Surendra Barsode]

Pakistan will not exist in one piece by 2030. As regards China, India will have to match the threats by a combination of aircrafts and missiles.

 

[Rinku Pandey]

The only people ignoring this is the government, military and scientific hierarchy in India.

Military has nothing to do with this as everything is controlled by GOI. When IAF wanted 126 fighters, GOI got them 32+4.

 

[Dr]

If this are the concerns than India needs to go for 54 of Russian S 57 stealth fighter without going for indigenous production of S 57 as it will be expansive as well as setting new production line will take longer time & see to it that Indian firms are included in supply chain of manufacturing this aircrafts as USA is not going to give F 35 to India & even if it agrees deliveries will commence only after 6/7 years as they have full order book as there seems to be no other option

 

[M S Chatterji]

They may be bankrupt but their military is not and India a $5 trillion economy with bankrupt military.

Sooner than later, even the Pakistan military will run out of money. Already, there are reports that the military cannot pay for the fuel they use. Much of specialized fuels are imported.

 

[M S Chatterji]

They are not bankrupt on military matter

When the country runs out of money, even the military is impacted.

 

[Kiran Kumar]

Russia may offer Su-57 in Jan 2025, Putin Visit to Bharat with Make in India Plus Export, second HAL should upgrade offer 72 Su-57 Instead of 72 Su-30 MKI

Unfortunately, India is in no mood to purchase stealth fighters from anyone. We have almost everything except Engine and no country will help us to master on Engine development. China stole the things and developed most of the things except Engine.

 

[Saran Subramaniam]

Sooner than later, even the Pakistan military will run out of money. Already, there are reports that the military cannot pay for the fuel they use. Much of specialized fuels are imported.

Pakistan military and Govt will get funds from friendly Arab nations as well as from World Bank and IMF.
India cannot wait for Pakistan to go bankrupt instead of actively mitigating this important risk.

 

[PKPRS]

If Trump permits, 150 made in India F35 with indigenous weapon integration right for approximately 35 billion dollar over the next 8-10 years and voila!!!
Otherwise Su57 is the only alternative.

and donate S-400 to Ukraine

 

[Sandeep]

Govt doing just nothing

So starting the Tejas MK1A and MK2, AMCA, TEDBF, stealth UCAV Ghatak, UAV Archer NG, UAV-UCAV CATS Team are programs that are needed and started which shows that the government are doing something.

Government has no choice but to rely on the scientists, engineers, manufacturing companies etc as they aren’t experts themselves or have any knowledge or education.

 

[Sandeep]

Currently we are designing, developing and manufacturing the AMCA, UCAV Ghatak and CATS Teaming drones which will all have stealth capabilities so we aren’t neglecting the threats at all. We just need them to move quickly and not linger or pinning away at the problems.

 

[Radium]

Unfortunately, India is in no mood to purchase stealth fighters from anyone. We have almost everything except Engine and no country will help us to master on Engine development. China stole the things and developed most of the things except Engine.

The radar and radio systems of Tejas fighter jets are from Israel, the avionics equipment is from France, and the ejection seats are from the UK. India only built the casing for Tejas fighter jets

 

[lindu delusional]

Already a bankrupt country will go into more bankruptcy with all these purchases. Their bankruptcy is good for india.

Lol 😂 who said it they are not going anywhere Glad to see you are hoping Instead of preparing both are different

 

[lindu delusional]

Pakistan will not exist in one piece by 2030. As regards China, India will have to match the threats by a combination of aircrafts and missiles.

Lol it already 2025 who said not in one piece the other pieces Bangladesh is already connecting these things was said in 2021 and now it 2025 almost so daydream instead of preparation hoping something to happen

 

[Neal.B]

and donate S-400 to Ukraine

India can still operate both systems by deploying them beyond their ranges of radars, keeping in mind US concerns.

 

[PKPRS]

India can still operate both systems by deploying them beyond their ranges of radars, keeping in mind US concerns.

it is little tricky and I don’t think US will like it, otherwise they would have done the same thing with Turkey.

 

[subrat beura]

Trump will give F35 to India

 

[ksvg]

Let's not wait for another '62. Learnt our lessons but no understanding of its meaning? Decisions have to be made. If we are to analyse each and every aspect, pros and cons, even today's lunch will come, maybe, sometime in the future. If at all.