China Steams Ahead with New Carrier, While India Waits for Approval

The commencement of sea trials for China's colossal aircraft carrier, the Fujian, casts a spotlight on the evolving balance of power in the Indian Ocean Region.

This behemoth, displacing a staggering 80,000 metric tons, signifies China's ambitious naval modernization program. This Type-003 class warship ranks as the world's third-largest carrier, behind only by the U.S. Navy's Nimitz and Gerald R. Ford class giants. The Fujian serves as a potent symbol of China's strategic aspiration to become a dominant maritime power.

While China surges forward, India's plans for its next aircraft carrier, the IAC-2, remain stalled, awaiting crucial government approval. This disparity in pace underscores the differing strategic priorities between the two nations.

China's Rapid Naval Expansion​

China's naval expansion has been nothing short of remarkable. In 2012, they commissioned their first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, followed by the launch of the Shandong in 2019. This trajectory reflects China's audacious goal of possessing over 10 operational carriers by 2050.

India's Naval Considerations​

India, a pioneer in Asian carrier operations, acquired its first aircraft carrier, the HMS Hercules, from the United Kingdom in 1961. Today, the Indian Navy operates two carriers: the INS Vikramaditya (procured from Russia) and the recently commissioned INS Vikrant, India's first domestically built carrier (IAC-1).

However, China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean Region necessitates that India strengthens its own naval capabilities. This urgency is further amplified by the delay in approving the IAC-2 program.

The IAC-2 and the Debate​

The proposed IAC-2 would displace 45,000 tons and is estimated to cost approximately ₹40,000 crore (roughly $4.8 billion USD). This carrier, to be built by Cochin Shipyard Limited, would be modeled after the recently launched INS Vikrant.

A key factor contributing to the delay in approving the IAC-2 is the ongoing debate within the Indian military establishment. This debate centers on the relative importance of aircraft carriers versus submarines in safeguarding India's maritime interests.

While submarines excel in covert operations aimed at denying the enemy the use of specific maritime areas, aircraft carriers provide crucial power projection and sea control capabilities.

Sea control involves the coordinated deployment of warships, aircraft, helicopters, and amphibious forces to maintain dominance over a particular maritime region.

The Formidable Fujian​

The Fujian boasts several cutting-edge features, including an advanced Catapult Assisted Take-Off & Barrier Arrested Recovery (CATOBAR) system with an innovative electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS).

Launched in June 2022 from Shanghai's Jiangnan Shipyard, this 316-meter-long behemoth is expected to enter service in 2026.

With an estimated top speed of 31 knots and the capacity to accommodate 3,000 personnel, the Fujian is the largest aircraft carrier ever built outside the United States. It is powered by conventional steam turbines with diesel generators.

Looking Ahead​

The upcoming sea trials of the Fujian are expected to span over a year, with a focus on evaluating the reliability of its propulsion and electrical systems.

China plans to equip the carrier with upgraded versions of its J-15 fighter jets, alongside next-generation aircraft like the J-35 stealth fighter, the KJ-600 early warning aircraft, and the JL-10 advanced trainer jet.

India's wait for the IAC-2's approval creates a strategic quandary. As China's naval power surges, India faces growing pressure to expedite its own naval modernization efforts to maintain a credible maritime deterrent in the Indian Ocean Region.

 

[Bhishma]

lol, lot of Chinbots in this thread getting rattled. India can easily sink this. India has the tech to do it. Fujian's dimensions are 316m x 76m. all our missile CEPs are less than 10m. we can easily sink this. you have just presented a bigger target. isnt this the same argument you used against US Carriers ? we use the same principle. thanks for teaching us.

 

[amerjit johal]

Not exactly... A SSN is certainly a major threat, but a carrier isn't easy to find, and would have a fairly large escort group.

As they are sailing through the Mallacca Strait
They will be very easy to find

 

[Sandeep]

Carriers are very important in making sure we can protect our sea assets, critical ships or shipping lanes and anything that effects us at sea but also to launch an attack if necessary. Although they are expensive to build and operate we can't disregard them. The quickest and easiest option is to make another Vikrant carrier with a higher amount of indigenous equipment, technology and parts which can eventually replace the vikramiditya carrier which is getting very old now. At the same time we should design and make plans to build a 80000t carrier which we can match with China. Carriers are very vulnerable so we should develop missiles that can kill or destroy a carrier and sink it. The quickest method would be to overwhelm its air defence system but we should use the recent SMART missiles along with a large number of Brahmos missiles. The SMART torpedo can be used as a very potent, sophisticated and silent killer as the torpedo can be released much further away where they will think the missile was off target and isn't a threat to them so they are likely to ignore it but we should always fire a barrage of Brahmos missiles and SMART missiles so we can cripple not just the carrier.

 

[Anant]

"There are still some 600 million people whose monthly income is barely 1,000 yuan ($141) in China, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said last month at a press conference following the annual session of the country’s top legislature."

their own premier made this statement in 2020. how is this possible if their economy is as big as you think. their exports in 2023 is $3.3T. for an export economy with a consumption economy that never picked up, how is it possible ? if we think its a 12T economy, then it means only 25% is export dependent, which is total bull.

Not quite. If you look at the sector-wise breakdown of China's GDP, they have around 37.2% coming from private consumption, 16.1% from government consumption, 43.5% from capital formation, and just 3.2% (20.7% exports - 17.5% imports) from net exports (Exports - Imports). China has a fairly low share of their GDP coming from private consumption, which has been a red flag for many external watchers.

In contrast, in India, 57.2% of our GDP comes from private consumption, 10.3% from government consumption, 33.9% from capital formation, 5.7% from other sources, with -7% (-29.7% imports + 22.7% exports) coming from net imports.

Similarly, for a nation like the US, 68.4% of their GDP comes from private consumption, 17.3% from government consumption, 17.2% from capital investments, 0.1% from inventory investments, and -2.9% (-15% imports + 12.1% exports) from net imports.

The global average share of GDP coming from private consumption is around 50% for emerging economies, and around 68-70% in developed economies. You can see why China has a massive problem here. That doesn't mean they don't have consumption.

 

[Bharat007]

you can intimidate a banana republic, like how US is doing. you cannot intimidate India, neither can India intimidate China with AC. those days are over.

Those days are not over. If India sends AC through Taiwan strait, and if China also send AC to Bay of Bengal during LAC clash then it would definitely rattle respective countries. By 2035, China would have 5 AC. Everyday is not war where u can sink those AC with missiles everytime they're in Indian backyard.

Even if some view the Fujian AC as potentially vulnerable in certain scenarios, it's essential to recognize its broader strategic significance beyond just its vulnerability. Aircraft carriers like the Fujian AC can serve multiple purposes, including power projection, maritime security, show of Dominance over region during Peace times and diplomatic signaling. They can also be part of a larger naval strategy aimed at securing sea lanes and protecting national interests. So, while its vulnerabilities are worth considering, it's equally important to understand its potential roles and capabilities in various contexts.

Applying the concept of cognitive dissonance is dangerous for military strategy. Never underestimate your enemy. Nehruvian mentality among Indians need to cease. Underestimating enemy is the first step towards self-defeat.

 

[Bharat007]

lol, lot of Chinbots in this thread getting rattled. India can easily sink this. India has the tech to do it. Fujian's dimensions are 316m x 76m. all our missile CEPs are less than 10m. we can easily sink this. you have just presented a bigger target. isnt this the same argument you used against US Carriers ? we use the same principle. thanks for teaching us.

It appears that you are committing a strawman fallacy by oversimplifying the utility of the Fujian AC solely to its vulnerability to missile attacks. The AC likely various capabilities and strategic uses beyond just being a target for missiles.

War is fortunately less common today, but military assets like the Fujian AC may serve multiple purposes beyond just wartime scenarios. They play roles in deterrence, diplomacy, and power projection, which are relevant even in times of peace. You don't sink warships during non-war times.

 

[Bhishma]

It appears that you are committing a strawman fallacy by oversimplifying the utility of the Fujian AC solely to its vulnerability to missile attacks. The AC likely various capabilities and strategic uses beyond just being a target for missiles.

War is fortunately less common today, but military assets like the Fujian AC may serve multiple purposes beyond just wartime scenarios. They play roles in deterrence, diplomacy, and power projection, which are relevant even in times of peace. You don't sink warships during non-war times.

ie what you are saying is, Fujian is a good showpiece, wont be useful in real war.

 

[Bhishma]

Those days are not over. If India sends AC through Taiwan strait, and if China also send AC to Bay of Bengal during LAC clash then it would definitely rattle respective countries. By 2035, China would have 5 AC. Everyday is not war where u can sink those AC with missiles everytime they're in Indian backyard.

Even if some view the Fujian AC as potentially vulnerable in certain scenarios, it's essential to recognize its broader strategic significance beyond just its vulnerability. Aircraft carriers like the Fujian AC can serve multiple purposes, including power projection, maritime security, show of Dominance over region during Peace times and diplomatic signaling. They can also be part of a larger naval strategy aimed at securing sea lanes and protecting national interests. So, while its vulnerabilities are worth considering, it's equally important to understand its potential roles and capabilities in various contexts.

Applying the concept of cognitive dissonance is dangerous for military strategy. Never underestimate your enemy. Nehruvian mentality among Indians need to cease. Underestimating enemy is the first step towards self-defeat.

let China field Fujian during LAC standoff and see what happens. Chinese attach emotional importance to Fujian. CCP has sold "superpower dreams" to the average Chinese. punching a big hole in that monstrosity would be a big insult to CCP & its legitimacy. so yeah, we dare to China to field it. lets see what happens. if you sink our carrier, the worst that would happen is the ruling party will exit and the other party would come in. if we sink your carrier, there will be civil war.

 

[Bhishma]

China is aiming for 5 AC by 2035. It is too much. No one can match that speedy development of PLAN but India should make and finish IAC 2 project before 2035.

China has 1 operational carrier today. It will take 7-8 years before Fujian can be operational ie ~2032. Heck it doesnt even have any fighters yet. Lets meet 2035 and discuss. See if you guys can weather the impending crisis.

 

[Bharat007]

wont be useful in real war.

Fox and sour grapes.

Don't celebrate defeat of enemy unless fight is over. Never underestimate your enemy.

Even India attaches importance to aircraft carriers because of its vast ocean, despite knowing that aircraft carriers are vulnerable. Such warships are made not just for war, but also for peacetime. Power projection is indeed a SHOWPIECE of a nation's might, Psychological warfare, marking territory and influencing others is all part of it. When you demonstrate your might, others will start to have a positive outlook on you as a strong nation. A showpiece is an important part of propaganda that can influence the perceptions of others. That's why even India wants aircraft carriers.

You failed to realise it. Wars are not fought solely with weapons, but also with propaganda, diplomacy, and by show of military might by instilling fear on enemies without firing a single shot at them aka Psy Warfare. Let this be known to you.

 

[Bhishma]

Not quite. If you look at the sector-wise breakdown of China's GDP, they have around 37.2% coming from private consumption, 16.1% from government consumption, 43.5% from capital formation, and just 3.2% (20.7% exports - 17.5% imports) from net exports (Exports - Imports). China has a fairly low share of their GDP coming from private consumption, which has been a red flag for many external watchers.

In contrast, in India, 57.2% of our GDP comes from private consumption, 10.3% from government consumption, 33.9% from capital formation, 5.7% from other sources, with -7% (-29.7% imports + 22.7% exports) coming from net imports.

Similarly, for a nation like the US, 68.4% of their GDP comes from private consumption, 17.3% from government consumption, 17.2% from capital investments, 0.1% from inventory investments, and -2.9% (-15% imports + 12.1% exports) from net imports.

The global average share of GDP coming from private consumption is around 50% for emerging economies, and around 68-70% in developed economies. You can see why China has a massive problem here. That doesn't mean they don't have consumption.

You have quoted all the numbers from CCP's official figures. It doesnt prove anything. Sure they have some consumption. My point is, with that level of poverty (as per Chinese premier himself) & inflation, there's no way its a 12T economy. Its all inflated through real estate bubble, pointless low quality infra projects. Hundred million houses unoccupied - does it sound like a 12T economy ? I dont think so. There's lot of math magic happening there. Its not a healthy society. Its on the verge of implosion.

In India the vibe is, people have already forgotten covid. IPL fever going crazy here. In China, all I see is doom and gloom, businesses shutting down left right and center. Ghost towns popping up everywhere. Investors pulling out at rapid pace. China preparing $250bn bailout package. China never really recovered from Covid.

So to go back to your original point - China's economy is 4x India's - nobody buys that.

 

[Anant]

You have quoted all the numbers from CCP's official figures. It doesnt prove anything. Sure they have some consumption. My point is, with that level of poverty (as per Chinese premier himself) & inflation, there's no way its a 12T economy. Its all inflated through real estate bubble, pointless low quality infra projects. Hundred million houses unoccupied - does it sound like a 12T economy ? I dont think so. There's lot of math magic happening there. Its not a healthy society. Its on the verge of implosion.

In India the vibe is, people have already forgotten covid. IPL fever going crazy here. In China, all I see is doom and gloom, businesses shutting down left right and center. Ghost towns popping up everywhere. Investors pulling out at rapid pace. China preparing $250bn bailout package. China never really recovered from Covid.

So to go back to your original point - China's economy is 4x India's - nobody buys that.

What I have quoted comes from the IMF's estimates, not the CCP's figures. Coming to poverty, well, poverty is still very much present in other advanced economies, so don't read more into it than absolutely necessary. Do you think poverty in India will disappear in the next 15 years or so, by the time we reach a 10 trillion USD GDP?

Oh, and China's real estate bubble has only now started blowing up. The knock-on effects will take a year or two to show up. Oh, and while China well and truly bungled up recovering from their self-generated pandemic, that doesn't mean their economy isn't large.

Finally, the fact that China's economy is 3-4 times India's economy (in nominal terms) is just that: A fact. Most people accept that. If you don't, fine by me, but that doesn't change anything. Of course, if you look at GDP in PPP terms, then the story is different, with China's economy being worth anything between 1.75 and 2.2-ish times India's economy.