The Muhammad Yunus-led interim government in Bangladesh has promised to hold the much-anticipated elections on February 12.
The road ahead is not an easy one, as political alignments are changing rapidly, while the country is also dealing with a wave of violence. The National Citizens Party (NCP), which was formed by the students who led the protest to oust Sheikh Hasina, is currently in disarray.
The NCP, during its formation, was completely aligned towards the Jamaat-e-Islami, and now many within the party are questioning it. While some want to align with the Jamaat ahead of the elections, others feel that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) would be a better bet. However, there is one section which does not want to be a part of both and has decided to contest the elections independently.
Bangladesh watchers say that the shift away from the Jamaat is not a sudden one. They have realised that with the Jamaat in control, it would be as good as giving the country away to Pakistan. They are not wrong in their thinking, the experts say.
The welcoming of the ISI, easing of visa norms and opening of the sea route to Pakistan are seen by many as a dangerous trend. They realise that the ISI is looking to make Bangladesh a terror launch pad against India.
Experts also say that the same students who led the protests against Sheikh Hasina, citing anarchy, now realise that under the Jamaat, the country would be in a worse condition.
The country has been getting negative press for its failing economy, welcoming of Pakistan, targeting of the minorities and the unending violence. These students feel that if the Jamaat is at the helm, this would become a new normal in the country. There would be very little progress, and more attempts would be made to implement the Sharia law and turn the nation into an Islamic state.
In addition to the ideological differences and what the Jamaat would turn the country into, there are a few who have political differences. The Jamaat had offered the NCP just 30 seats in the 350-member Jatiya Sangsad. The NCP was always aware that it would be a junior partner with the Jamaat. But they had never anticipated that the offer of seats would be this poor. They feel that they were used by the Jamaat to fulfil its large goal, and that was to throw Hasina out of power.
Some experts say that the way in which things are panning out within the NCP, the party may cease to exist before the elections are held. There are reports daily of internal discord, resignations and difficult negotiations. There is also opposition to one group wanting to align with the BNP.
Experts say that the BNP will be careful before it accepts any such offer by a faction of the NCP. The BNP is in a comfortable position as of now. Moreover, it broke its alliance with the Jamaat as it did not want to adhere to a violent ideology. The NCP is largely perceived to be pro-Jamaat, and the BNP would not want to engage with them. The rift within the NCP began following the resignation of Asrhadul Haque, a top leader of the party. He was upset that the Jamaat was controlling the party and even offered Rs 1.5 crore Taka to the NCP for each of the constituencies it would fight the elections as an ally.
Most of the students who led the protest to oust Hasina believed that they needed better leadership. However, they realised that under a Jamaat leadership, no good can happen in Bangladesh, and it would just be a puppet of Pakistan, where the focus would not be on development.
NCP leaders had initially decided to contest 125 seats, but the fact that the Jamaat offered only 30 seats has angered many. They questioned some of the NCP leaders for trying to give away too much to the Jamaat, when the original part of the plan was to contest the elections alone.
Tanjuva Jabeen, joint convener of the NCP, after resigning, took to social media and said that she would contest as an independent from Dhaka-9. She also said that she is opposed to the alliance with the Jamaat.
Bangladesh watchers say that the Jamaat has effectively managed to break the NCP up, as it does not want any vote split, as it would prefer a direct contest with the BNP.
The experts point out that the Jamaat will eventually end up finishing the NCP after the elections or probably sooner.
