The European Union is looking at India as a possible source of vital artillery shells and small arms ammunition for Ukraine, following a sudden halt in weapons shipments from the United States.
This change in strategy comes after reports of a disagreement between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a recent White House meeting, where discussions about a potential peace agreement reportedly became confrontational.
With increasing tensions and disrupted supply routes, the EU is seeking alternative sources to continue its support for Ukraine.
The White House meeting, originally intended to find ways to reduce the intensity of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, revealed significant disagreements between Washington and Kyiv.
Sources close to the discussions reported a tense exchange, with President Trump urging President Zelensky to consider making concessions to Russia as part of a larger peace plan – a suggestion that President Zelensky strongly opposed.
The Ukrainian President, whose nation has depended heavily on US military assistance since the Russian invasion in 2022, reportedly accused Trump of weakening Ukraine's sovereignty. In response, Trump argued that continued financial aid and arms shipments were no longer sustainable for American taxpayers.
Following the contentious meeting, the United States announced a pause in new arms shipments to Ukraine, including crucial supplies of 155mm artillery shells and small arms ammunition. This decision has caused significant concern among NATO members, leading the EU to urgently seek alternative ways to sustain Ukraine's military capabilities.
The US has provided over $44 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of the Biden Administration, according to the US Department of Defense. The sudden suspension throws the continuity of this support into question.
With the US reducing its support, the EU has focused its attention on India, an emerging global power with a rapidly growing defence manufacturing sector.
Indian defence companies, including the government-owned Munitions India Limited and private corporations like Tata Advanced Systems, have greatly increased their production capabilities in recent years.
EU officials are particularly interested in India's capacity to produce affordable, NATO-standard artillery shells and small-caliber ammunition, which could help bridge the supply gap created by the American withdrawal.
"India possesses both the industrial capacity and the geopolitical position to fulfill this need," stated a high-ranking EU diplomat, who requested anonymity. "Unlike the US, India is not facing internal political divisions regarding support for Ukraine, and its production lines are already operating at a significant scale."
Early discussions between Brussels and New Delhi are reportedly taking place, with the goal of speeding up shipments to EU stockpiles, which would then be forwarded to Ukraine.
India's potential role represents a notable change in the international arms trade. Historically, India has been a major importer of weapons, but under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" program, the country has prioritized self-sufficiency in defence production.
Currently, India exports munitions to over 85 countries, primarily in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. A supply agreement with the EU could significantly enhance India's standing in the global defence market and strengthen its strategic partnership with Europe.
The EU's shift towards India is not without challenges. Potential obstacles include logistical issues, such as shipping routes and ensuring compatibility with Ukraine's existing weaponry.
Furthermore, India's long-held policy of strategic autonomy – carefully managing its relationships with the West, Russia, and China – could add complexity to the negotiations.
India has adopted a neutral position on the conflict in Ukraine, refraining from voting on UN resolutions that condemned Russia and continuing its trade relations with Moscow. Any decision to supply arms to Ukraine could potentially impact India's carefully balanced diplomatic relationships.
