Regarding Pakistan's plans to purchase the J-31 Stealth Fighter from China, a prominent aviation journalist Andreas Rupprecht (Deino), has cast serious doubt on the practicality of this deal.
The complications surrounding the J-31, also known as the Shenyang FC-31 Gyrfalcon, call into doubt its suitability for manufacturing and the timescale for probable deployment in the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).
Deino's observations clarify the current status of the J-31 and highlight the fact that it does not yet exist as a true entity. Rather, there are many J-35 prototypes and an FC-31 demonstration.
The FC-31 demonstrator has been in existence since its inaugural flight in 2012, marking a 12-year journey with no developmental trials completed.
The reason for the delay can be ascribed to the prioritisation of the J-20 by the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) in comparison to the FC-31.
Prominent for his pro-Chinese military views, Deino has emphasised that the J-31 is not yet production-ready. His allegation is consistent with the view of many China watchers, who believe the FC-31 is a private initiative by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation.
The lack of completion in developmental trials suggests that the aircraft may not be ready for quick acquisition, casting doubt on Pakistan's goals.
The J-35, a modified carrier-based version of the FC-31, made its first flight on October 29, 2021. However, carrier operations are the primary focus of the aircraft's development.
This raises the possibility that the PAF will eventually obtain an air force version of the carrier-based FC-31. If carrier trials are successful, production of this air force variant is anticipated to start in 2028 or later.
Deino emphasises the changing nature of political and economic landscapes, stating that actual developments could take several years. The trajectory of defence acquisitions is heavily influenced by both geopolitical and economic factors. As such, changes in these variables may have an impact on Pakistan's ambitions to acquire the J-31.
