The recent intensification of the Iran-Israel conflict has brought the combat effectiveness of Chinese-manufactured military equipment under severe scrutiny.
During a recent episode of the defence programme On Cutting Edge, Carice Witte, founder of the SIGNAL Group (Sino-Israel Global Network & Academic Leadership), informed Colonel Anurag Awasthi that several Chinese-supplied platforms—most notably the HQ-9 air defence system—have significantly underperformed.
According to reports, Israeli forces successfully bypassed and destroyed multiple HQ-9 installations during the June 2025 military escalation, casting serious doubt on the reliability of Beijing’s premier export hardware in active warzones.
Technical Flaws or Human Error?
The widespread destruction of these installations has sparked a critical debate among military analysts.The HQ-9 system—often exported under the designation FD-2000 and heavily heavily influenced by Russia’s S-300 architecture—is marketed globally as a highly capable, long-range surface-to-air missile shield. It was deployed to secure critical Iranian infrastructure.
However, its failure to track and intercept incoming munitions has led experts to question its radar processing capabilities and its vulnerability to modern stealth aircraft and precision-guided weapons.
Witte noted that while the hardware itself is under investigation, it remains difficult to fully separate inherent technological defects from potential poor training and operational incompetence among Iranian missile crews.
The Propellant Supply Chain
Beyond the air defence failures, the discussions highlighted China’s indirect but significant role in sustaining Iran's offensive military capabilities.Witte detailed how Beijing has been a crucial source of specialized chemical components required for producing solid-fuel missile propellant.
While this supply chain has actively aided the expansion of Tehran’s ballistic arsenal, the Chinese government has officially distanced itself from these activities.
Beijing maintains a stance of plausible deniability, asserting that any such material transfers are the actions of independent private corporations operating without state authorization.
A Pattern of Failure: Operation Sindoor
The setbacks in the Middle East are part of a broader, emerging pattern.Just one year ago, in May 2025, the HQ-9 family faced its first major peer-to-peer combat test during "Operation Sindoor"—a brief, high-intensity conflict between India and Pakistan sparked by the Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir.
The Pakistani military, which formally inducted the HQ-9/P variant in 2021 to protect its airspace, relied on the system to counter Indian retaliatory strikes.
The Chinese-made batteries ultimately failed to intercept incoming Indian projectiles, particularly the BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, which travel at nearly Mach 3. This allowed Indian forces to strike high-value targets with minimal resistance.
Subsequent post-strike analysis of the recovered debris highlighted several critical weaknesses in the Pakistani air defence network, including:
- Software Instability: Critical glitches in the system's targeting computers.
- Electronic Warfare (EW) Vulnerability: Poor resistance to advanced radar jamming and spoofing techniques deployed by the Indian Air Force.
- Integration Failures: An inability to seamlessly share data with other nodes in the broader air defence grid.
Implications for the Global Arms Market
These consecutive operational failures—against Indian cruise missiles in May and US-Israeli strike packages in June—have severely damaged the reputation of China’s defence export industry.For years, Beijing has successfully pitched its surface-to-air missile systems to developing nations as highly capable, cost-effective alternatives to expensive Western or Russian alternatives.
However, as the dust settles on these recent conflicts, international observers and current operators of Chinese military hardware are being forced to re-evaluate their strategic investments.
Determining whether these battlefield defeats are the result of operator error or deep-rooted engineering flaws will dictate the future of China's role as a primary global arms supplier.
