Opinion How Pakistan's Tactical Nuclear Weapons and Vague "Red Lines" Cause Security Concerns in South Asia

The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) by Pakistan has added a new and dangerous element to the volatile India-Pakistan relationship.

The combination of these battlefield nuclear weapons with Pakistan's vaguely defined "red lines" — such as economic or domestic destabilization — creates a worrying scenario where Pakistan might initiate low-level conventional attacks against India, hoping to deter a full-scale Indian response through the threat of nuclear escalation.

This strategy is particularly concerning because TNWs, by their very nature, lower the threshold for nuclear use. Pakistan's ambiguous "red lines" could provide them with a pretext for launching limited attacks, gambling on a measured Indian response.

However, this is a dangerous gamble. Any use of nuclear weapons, even tactical ones, could trigger a massive Indian retaliation, potentially escalating the conflict to a full-blown nuclear exchange. The stakes are incredibly high, and the potential consequences catastrophic.

Pakistan's motivation for developing TNWs seems to be rooted in its desire to offset its conventional military inferiority vis-à-vis India. The theory is that the threat of nuclear escalation, even at the tactical level, could deter India from responding forcefully to a conventional attack.

However, the actual use of TNWs would be a reckless gamble, with potentially uncontrollable consequences. It's unclear whether Pakistan's political leadership would be willing to take such a risk, but the mere existence of this capability creates a dangerous instability in the region.

While Pakistan's TNW program might serve as a deterrent by signaling its willingness to escalate, the actual use of these weapons would be a dangerous gamble.

The long-term stability of South Asia depends on both India and Pakistan managing the risks associated with this new reality and avoiding any actions that could trigger a catastrophic escalation.

The introduction of TNWs has raised the stakes in the India-Pakistan conflict to terrifying levels, and any miscalculation could lead to a war of annihilation.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

India's doctrine is very clear, any nuclear attack on indian territory or on Indian soldiers, does not matter whether it is low yield or high yield, tactical or strategic, will result in overwhelming indian retaliation, meaning karachi, lahore, peshawar, islamabad turing to rubble.

If pakis try to target indian cities in retaliation, we have a BMD system. It is not foolproof, and we would suffer large damage, but we will survive. Pakis wont.

 

[Anant]

The simple fact of the matter is that Pakistan is such a failed state that it will disintegrate and perish in war. The only question is when and if this war will be a civil war or a strife with other nations.

 

[ramdas]

The writer's portrayal of Pakistan's precarious ability to avoid becoming a failed state in light of its economic situation is truly alarming. The internal strife is reaching a critical point, and the threat of any possible outcome is very real. Furthermore, the presence of India's strike submarine poses a significant threat and could potentially devastate the already vulnerable country.

 

[Sudha]

Just make it crystal clear to the world, any nation using TNWs against Bharat will trigger a full scale nuke attack on that nation.

 

[Bailbuddhi Padhoria]

Choke or Kill the water supply to all West Rivers of Indus. Rest of the downfall will happen automatically ❗ Couple $30 million nuclearised missile will not be wasted. Plus, danger of irradiated ☢️ air flowing towards India will not be there.

 

[Vijay Anand]

The simple fact of the matter is that Pakistan is such a failed state that it will disintegrate and perish in war. The only question is when and if this war will be a civil war or a strife with other nations.

If a civil war starts, they'll do some other misadventure towards us to divert the publics attention and recreate a sense of unity within themselves. Then it would be a matter of how long the public is supporting the govt.

Even 1962 and Galwan valley were a part of distracting Chinese public's attention. In 62 we lost, but in Galwan our military taught them a good lesson.

 

[desigandu]

India should formalise its national security strategy - rescind its no first use policy, develop and deploy tactical nukes, get its nuclear warheads to 500 by 2030 as China will get to 1000; have 1-2 SSBNs (for which we will need 4-6 boats including 2S5 if you take the 4 Arihant class into account) on permanent patrol in IOR and Pacific to target China - have a clear eyed nuclear doctrine linked to the NSS…

 

[Ravishankar]

Even 1962 and Galwan valley were a part of distracting Chinese public's attention. In 62 we lost, but in Galwan our military taught them a good lesson.

Even in 1967 Nathu La they lost 300 soldiers. A real lesson for the PLA

 

[desigandu]

The simple fact of the matter is that Pakistan is such a failed state that it will disintegrate and perish in war. The only question is when and if this war will be a civil war or a strife with other nations.

We must accelerate balkanisation of Pakistan with lessons from 1971; it is the only way…

 

[Anant]

If a civil war starts, they'll do some other misadventure towards us to divert the publics attention and recreate a sense of unity within themselves. Then it would be a matter of how long the public is supporting the govt.

Even 1962 and Galwan valley were a part of distracting Chinese public's attention. In 62 we lost, but in Galwan our military taught them a good lesson.

As that so-called nation gets closer to civil war, their sad excuse of a so-called democratic government will start nonsense to divert public attention.

As for their public, a lot of people living there are radicalized towards India to the point that we shouldn't hope anything from them whatsoever.

After all, when their own LoP refers to India as an 'enemy country' when trying to highlight the failings there only, common citizens are beyond saving.

 

[Bard of Anarchy]

Haha using conventional nukes against India or indian soldiers will trigger bharat's nuclear response! And I don't think Pakistani generals are stupid enough to do that..

 

[Anant]

India should formalise its national security strategy - rescind its no first use policy, develop and deploy tactical nukes, get its nuclear warheads to 500 by 2030 as China will get to 1000; have 1-2 SSBNs (for which we will need 4-6 boats including 2S5 if you take the 4 Arihant class into account) on permanent patrol in IOR and Pacific to target China - have a clear eyed nuclear doctrine linked to the NSS…

A NSS is already many years overdue. As for nukes, well, China wants to reach 1,000 by 2030. Even if we try, we can reach maybe 300 by then. Nuclear arsenals are extremely expensive to maintain and expand.

as for SSBNs, we should get S4 by 2026-27, with S4* following by 2030 or so. As for the S5-class, those boats may start entering service in the late 2030s, which means we won't have 6 SSBNs by the late 2040s at the least.