IAF's Fighter Jet Acquisition On Par With Retiring Jets, Less Possibility of Squadron Shrinking to Pakistan Size by 2035

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is currently navigating a crucial period of modernization, balancing the retirement of older fighter jets with the acquisition of new aircraft, all while maintaining operational readiness in a complex regional security environment.

A recent projection by India Today suggested the IAF's fighter squadron count could decrease significantly by 2035, potentially reaching parity with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). However, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture, factoring in ongoing and planned acquisitions.

The projection warned that the IAF could be operating as few as 25 fighter squadrons by 2035. This scenario assumes the scheduled retirement of aging aircraft like the Jaguar, MiG-29, and Mirage-2000 over the next decade, without immediate, sufficient replacements.

Such a reduction would bring the IAF's squadron numbers level with the PAF, which currently fields 25 squadrons. This is a concerning prospect given India's need to maintain a strong deterrent posture, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.

The concern stems from the planned phase-out of legacy aircraft. The IAF currently operates approximately 31 squadrons, below its sanctioned strength of 42. The retirement of MiG-21 squadrons in recent years has already strained resources.

The Jaguar, MiG-29, and Mirage-2000 fleets, inducted between the late 1970s and early 1990s, are approaching the end of their service lives. The retirement of these – approximately six Jaguar, three MiG-29, and three Mirage-2000 squadrons – could mean a loss of up to 12 squadrons, potentially reducing the total to 25 by 2035.

This calculation accounts for the planned delivery of 83 Tejas Mk1A aircraft by 2029, built by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). With each squadron typically comprising 18 aircraft, these 83 jets would constitute roughly four to five squadrons, providing a partial offset to the retiring fleets.

Crucially, however, the initial assessment does not include several other planned acquisitions and development programs that could significantly impact the IAF's future force structure.

Several key initiatives are underway that could prevent a drastic reduction in squadron numbers:

• Additional Tejas Mk1A Procurement: The IAF intends to order an additional 97 Tejas Mk1A aircraft, beyond the 83 already contracted. If finalized, this would add another five squadrons by the early 2030s. The Tejas Mk1A represents a significant step in India's defense indigenization efforts, boasting improved avionics, an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, and enhanced combat capabilities.
• Tejas Mk2 Development: The Tejas Mk2, a more advanced version with increased payload capacity and range, is slated for production by the late 2020s. Current estimates suggest that 40-50 Tejas Mk2 aircraft could join the IAF by 2035, adding two to three squadrons. The Tejas Mk2, powered by the GE F414 engine, is designed to replace the Mirage-2000 and Jaguar, offering a substantial capability upgrade.
• Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) Tender: The long-standing MRFA tender for 110 aircraft is a critical factor. This program, featuring contenders like the Dassault Rafale, Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Eurofighter Typhoon, could potentially add six squadrons if finalized and delivered within the next decade. The MRFA aims to fill the capability gap created by retiring aircraft, ensuring the IAF maintains its multi-role operational edge. According to Janes defense a British open-source defence intelligence information provider, The MRFA program is designed to replace several aircraft nearing the end of their operational lives and will supply the majority of aircraft over the next 15 years.

Comparing the IAF's potential future strength of 25 squadrons directly to the PAF's current 25 squadrons is an oversimplification. While numbers matter, qualitative differences are crucial.

The PAF's fleet consists of older F-16s, JF-17s (jointly developed with China), and Mirage III/V aircraft. Many of these lack the advanced avionics, stealth capabilities, and network-centric warfare capabilities found in modern IAF platforms like the Rafale, Su-30MKI, and the forthcoming Tejas variants.

Furthermore, India's strategic requirements extend beyond those of Pakistan. The IAF must be prepared for a potential two-front conflict involving both Pakistan and China.

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) of China operates a significantly larger force, with over 50 fighter squadrons, including advanced aircraft like the J-20 stealth fighter. While maintaining a sufficient number of squadrons is vital for deterrence, a holistic view of air power – encompassing technology, training, and operational doctrine – is essential.

Therefore, although squadron number reduction is a serious concern, the situation is less dire than a simple numerical comparison suggests, thanks to ongoing modernization efforts.

 

[Sudha]

Yes, as long as the IAF drools over the non-attainable $350 million 4th gen Rafale, the IAF's situation will become even worse. They should better get whatever is attainable.

 

[Dr]

If we don't go for 110 overseas aircraft, then there can be a problem. The other way is to allow private sector companies to build aircraft, which, together with HAL, can build 40 aircraft per year. There is a dire need to increase Male UAV and kamikaze drones in good quantity, along with medium- to long-range missiles and rockets.

 

[abhinav srivastava]

At this point in time importing 4th gen jets would be a mistake. Instead, expedite Tejas production, invest heavily in our own jet engine programs, import few squadrons of 5th gen jets as AMCA is at least 15 years away.

 

[The_rED_dEVIL]

At this point in time importing 4th gen jets would be a mistake. Instead, expedite Tejas production, invest heavily in our own jet engine programs, import few squadrons of 5th gen jets as AMCA is at least 15 years away.

Immediate action: Recognise and immensely fund a private sector production line for AMCA...If MRFA's six-squadron commitment were to be transferred to AMCA, the private sector would be easily attracted to such offers, with a 12-squadron induction (minimum).

 

[Bks98]

But writer assumes by 2035 India won't acquire any fighter jets. Tejas MK2 will be the main front line fighter jets by that time replacing Mirage 2000. AMCA might have deployed by that time as govt is planning to involve pvt players seeing HAL inability to deliver.

 

[swatkats_razor]

But writer assumes by 2035 India won't acquire any fighter jets.

I am certain the writer's assumption isn't much different our own.
How many fighters have we actually acquired in the last 10 years, apart from the 36 Rafales?

AMCA might have deployed by that time as govt is planning to involve pvt players seeing HAL inability to deliver.

Doesnt work that way. Private sector look at precedences before they foray into any new revenue stream. Our acquisition record on that has been rather pathetic. The government doesn't even procure much directly from private contractors like they wouldn't touch them with a barge-pole. All major contractors have burnt fingers with IA's acquisition process where except from few piecemeal order for items like ATVs and trucks, the military hasn't shown much sincerety in buying from private sector. Tata Kestrel and Kalyani towed guns being case in point. Not very encouring if I were heading a private corporation, to put my money into serring up a military production unit, when I am not certain if our own military will actually buy in bulk even if the equipments produced were to meet qualititative and competitive obligations.

 

[Ronit Roy]

I am certain the writer's assumption isn't much different our own.
How many fighters have we actually acquired in the last 10 years, apart from the 36 Rafales?

Doesnt work that way. Private sector look at precedences before they foray into any new revenue stream. Our acquisition record on that has been rather pathetic. The government doesn't even procure much directly from private contractors like they wouldn't touch them with a barge-pole. All major contractors have burnt fingers with IA's acquisition process where except from few piecemeal order for items like ATVs and trucks, the military hasn't shown much sincerety in buying from private sector. Tata Kestrel and Kalyani towed guns being case in point. Not very encouring if I were heading a private corporation, to put my money into serring up a military production unit, when I am not certain if our own military will actually buy in bulk even if the equipments produced were to meet qualititative and competitive obligations.

Actually, if 10 squadrons of Tejas Mk1A (180 fighters) and 12 squadrons of Tejas Mk2 (216 fighters) can easily solve the issue.

 

[Debalik]

At this point in time importing 4th gen jets would be a mistake. Instead, expedite Tejas production, invest heavily in our own jet engine programs, import few squadrons of 5th gen jets as AMCA is at least 15 years away.

Nope - India doesn't have the option to import any Fifth gen fighter jet. The F-35 Lightning ll is not formally on offer as of yet (please ignore Donald Trump's shenanigans) & the Su-57 doesn't fulfill the criteria of a fifth gen fighter in any aspect - So the IAF has no real option for importing any Fifth gen fighter jet, i.e. as of yet.

Now, The Tejas Mk 1A is the only real option for replacing the retired Mig - 21, Mig - 23 & Mig - 27 totalling around 220 Airframes (11 Squadrons).
The 47 Mirage - 2000, 65 Mig - 29UPG would have to be retired by 2032-35 necessitating the MRFA since the Tejas Mk 2 is atleast 8 years away even if things go perfectly for us so 80 Rafale F5 is the most important acquisition in this aspect.
The 50 older Su-30 MKI purchased in the 1998-2004 timeframe would be retired by 2040 but the remaining 220 Su-30 MKI would be upgraded in the Super Sukhoi upgrade project.

So, 220 Tejas Mk 1/1A (11 Squadrons) + 36 Rafale F3R (+ 80 Rafale F5) [ 2 Squadrons (+ 4 Squadrons)] + 220 Su-30 MKI UPG (11 Squadrons) - 28 Squadrons in total by 2035. Maybe 2 Squadrons of AMCA Mk1 (40 Aircrafts) & 2 or 3 Squadrons of Ghatak UCAV ( 40 or 60 Aircrafts) can be inducted if they enter production.

 

[Ronit Roy]

Some important points are missing in that report. First of all, our fighter jet squadrons are like this:

• 15 squadrons Sukhoi 30 MKI (270 fighters)
• 6 squadrons Jaguar fighter (108 fighters)
• 3 squadrons Mirage 2000 (54 fighters)
• 3 squadrons Mig 29 (54 fighters)
• 2 squadrons Rafale (36 fighters)
• 2 squadrons Tejas mk1 (36-40 fighters)

Three Mirage 2000 squadrons, three Mig 29 squadrons, and six Jaguar squadrons are supposed to retire by 2035.

Possible solutions:

1. 83+97 Tejas mk1a + 36 Tejas mk1 to mk1a standard (12 squadrons Tejas mk1a)
2. 216 Tejas mk2 (12 squadrons as replacement of those 12 retiring squadrons); (Air Force is considering 300 though)
3. 36-54 (Su-57 under MRFA)

This combination is somewhat achievable in the next 10 years, considering HAL will work properly, F404 delivery will start this year, and the F414 deal will get signed. And also, it can make the IAF reach its sanctioned strength of 42+ squadrons.

 

[abhinav srivastava]

Nope - India doesn't have the option to import any Fifth gen fighter jet. The F-35 Lightning ll is not formally on offer as of yet (please ignore Donald Trump's shenanigans) & the Su-57 doesn't fulfill the criteria of a fifth gen fighter in any aspect - So the IAF has no real option for importing any Fifth gen fighter jet, i.e. as of yet.

We may or may not get F-35s; that depends on a lot of factors. But one thing we should be clear on is that the Rafale is no match for a 5th gen jet. Refer to the IFRI report; Rafales cannot win over 5th gen fighter jets (F-35). In terms of stealth, the SU-57 is better than the Rafale. BTW, what is the advantage of the Rafale over the Su-57? Rafales are very costly, and their mid-life upgrade will be similar to the cost of a new LCA MK2.

We will be producing a large number of 4th gen jets in the coming decade. The requirement for 4th gen jets can be met domestically. Our AMCA is at least 15 years away from entering production. So, we need some 5th gen jets for our capability build-up. That means the choice is now between the Su-57 and F-35 (if offered). Recall when we started the procurement process for the Su-27; at that time, it was not a very good platform. IAF's inputs made it into a cutting-edge platform.

 

[Akshat]

We may or may not get F-35s; that depends on a lot of factors. But one thing we should be clear on is that the Rafale is no match for a 5th gen jet. Refer to the IFRI report; Rafales cannot win over 5th gen fighter jets (F-35). In terms of stealth, the SU-57 is better than the Rafale. BTW, what is the advantage of the Rafale over the Su-57? Rafales are very costly, and their mid-life upgrade will be similar to the cost of a new LCA MK2.

We will be producing a large number of 4th gen jets in the coming decade. The requirement for 4th gen jets can be met domestically. Our AMCA is at least 15 years away from entering production. So, we need some 5th gen jets for our capability build-up. That means the choice is now between the Su-57 and F-35 (if offered). Recall when we started the procurement process for the Su-27; at that time, it was not a very good platform. IAF's inputs made it into a cutting-edge platform.

Who says Su57 is better than any plane in any category? Remember, Russia cancelled it's orders and went for Su35, which has been defeated by Rafale. Yes, Rafale can't defeat fifth gen planes but it can thrash Su57 as it has no stealth, very bad avionics and a cr@ppy weapons package. That's the advantage of Rafale over Su 57 (not over fifth gen planes). Plus the superior maintenance.

As for cost, Rafale are L1. Always. So your point that they are costly simply doesn't hold any water. And as for LCA Mk2, it won't be available till at least 2040, in the super optimistic and unrealistic scenario. So we won't be making any of those in the next decade.

So Su57 or Tejas Mk2 ain't even an option.

 

[Sandeep]

This article is completely wrong and incorrect. Most of it’s based on speculation and assumptions. India will always maintain a lead in our air power, quality, technology and weapons.

Soon our production capabilities for our indigenous jets will start to pick up. Also we are inducting more SAM and air defence systems which increase our air capabilities.

 

[beencensured]

At this point in time importing 4th gen jets would be a mistake. Instead, expedite Tejas production, invest heavily in our own jet engine programs, import few squadrons of 5th gen jets as AMCA is at least 15 years away.

AMCA can be expedited. AMCA is not 15 years, but ten years away in realistic terms. It can be made in five to seven years, as other countries like South Korea and China have shown. They can go from design finalization to production within two to three years.

So, if India gets its act together and explores possibilities, like an engine tie-up with Russia, the UK, or the USA, and increases AMCA orders to at least 120 to get economies of scale, then obviously everything can be done quickly. Otherwise, a half-hearted approach, waiting for commissions, will really lead to failure.

 

[beencensured]

Immediate action: Recognise and immensely fund a private sector production line for AMCA...If MRFA's six-squadron commitment were to be transferred to AMCA, the private sector would be easily attracted to such offers, with a 12-squadron induction (minimum).

For the time being, they have only asked for 40 AMCA Mk1, so-called 5.5 generational planes, which equals two squadrons, which is willfully too low to attract even suppliers, let alone a private production line.

 

[Akshat]

Yes, as long as the IAF drools over the non-attainable $350 million 4th gen Rafale, the IAF's situation will become even worse. They should better get whatever is attainable.

Well the cheapest and best fighter jet of it's class, Rafale, is the only thing IAF wants and can get right now.

 

[Akshat]

For the time being, they have only asked for 40 AMCA Mk1, so-called 5.5 generational planes, which equals two squadrons, which is willfully too low to attract even suppliers, let alone a private production line.

Private sector is standing with check books open. Only thing required is for your family legacy insitutes to issue a tender but they won't do that.

 

[Akshat]

AMCA can be expedited. AMCA is not 15 years, but ten years away in realistic terms. It can be made in five to seven years, as other countries like South Korea and China have shown. They can go from design finalization to production within two to three years.

So, if India gets its act together and explores possibilities, like an engine tie-up with Russia, the UK, or the USA, and increases AMCA orders to at least 120 to get economies of scale, then obviously everything can be done quickly. Otherwise, a half-hearted approach, waiting for commissions, will really lead to failure.

If you wanna talk about realistic terms, AMCA is 30 years away at least, unless and until your family created institutes are thrown out of the door and tried for treason.

As for South Korea, you are again wrong. South Korea has Lockheed Martin as a partner. And they started in 2002 and had first flight test flight was in 2022 and it is not inducted even till now. And knowing DRDO and HAL, AMCA isn't coming till at least 2050, even if we are super optimistic.

 

[sujith sudhakaran]

Well the cheapest and best fighter jet of it's class, Rafale, is the only thing IAF wants and can get right now.

The Gripen is also good, but it's too similar to the Tejas Mark 2 and comes with all the same problems, like the F414. The good news is it shares the same engine and could offer India valuable experience in designing advanced light fighters.

 

[sujith sudhakaran]

Who says Su57 is better than any plane in any category? Remember, Russia cancelled it's orders and went for Su35, which has been defeated by Rafale. Yes, Rafale can't defeat fifth gen planes but it can thrash Su57 as it has no stealth, very bad avionics and a cr@ppy weapons package. That's the advantage of Rafale over Su 57 (not over fifth gen planes). Plus the superior maintenance.

As for cost, Rafale are L1. Always. So your point that they are costly simply doesn't hold any water. And as for LCA Mk2, it won't be available till at least 2040, in the super optimistic and unrealistic scenario. So we won't be making any of those in the next decade.

So Su57 or Tejas Mk2 ain't even an option.

Russia switched to the Su-35 because it's cheaper and easier to produce because of the sanctions. Also, Russia needed the payload capacity of the Su-35, which the Su-57 can only achieve with external hardpoints, which defeats the whole point of stealth.

 

[Akshat]

Russia switched to the Su-35 because it's cheaper and easier to produce because of the sanctions. Also, Russia needed the payload capacity of the Su-35, which the Su-57 can only achieve with external hardpoints, which defeats the whole point of stealth.

Ummm...no. They ordered additional Su 35 way back in 2020, well before the additional sanctions came into place due to the war. So it was solely due to the bad quality of Su 57.

 

[Akshat]

The Gripen is also good, but it's too similar to the Tejas Mark 2 and comes with all the same problems, like the F414. The good news is it shares the same engine and could offer India valuable experience in designing advanced light fighters.

Well it's not good. Straight up. It failed the trials last time. And in the last one decade, no one has ordered it. The last order was from Brazil, who said that they are buying it as Sweden promised to manufacture any Gripen ordered by Latin American companies in Brazil, but no one ordered it. And the cost was actually more than even Rafale (as Sweden used Brazilian money to develop a lot of additional features for the plane but it was still not ordered by any export customer). So it's outright not a good plane.

 

[Midhun]

If we don't go for 110 overseas aircraft, then there can be a problem. The other way is to allow private sector companies to build aircraft, which, together with HAL, can build 40 aircraft per year. There is a dire need to increase Male UAV and kamikaze drones in good quantity, along with medium- to long-range missiles and rockets.

India currently doesn't have the capability to build high-end aircraft; let alone, we don't even have the capability to produce high-tolerance machined parts. Private sector players like Mahindra Defence Systems are leaving out of the AMCA program. We cannot just ask some random private player; let alone, we don't even have any reputable private players in the aerospace industry. It is a process which takes a lot of time and effort to get to the level of other aerospace giants like Lockheed or CAC. Research and development is the key for innovation; we lack in both. In realistic terms, we will be looking at least a decade to get AMCA worked out.

 

[Nahian Ramim]

Who says Su57 is better than any plane in any category? Remember, Russia cancelled it's orders and went for Su35, which has been defeated by Rafale. Yes, Rafale can't defeat fifth gen planes but it can thrash Su57 as it has no stealth, very bad avionics and a cr@ppy weapons package. That's the advantage of Rafale over Su 57 (not over fifth gen planes). Plus the superior maintenance.

As for cost, Rafale are L1. Always. So your point that they are costly simply doesn't hold any water. And as for LCA Mk2, it won't be available till at least 2040, in the super optimistic and unrealistic scenario. So we won't be making any of those in the next decade.

So Su57 or Tejas Mk2 ain't even an option.

You are talking with no basis. If it's like that, then the English Electric, a 3rd-gen fighter, is better than the initial Su-27s. And as for the Su-35, well, Su-57 orders are still at 78 orders.

The Su-35 is cheaper, and Russia mainly now conducts long-range missile strikes, so the Su-35 is a better option than the Su-57. And the Su-57 design itself has better stealth capability than a Rafale.

 

[Akshat]

You are talking with no basis. If it's like that, then the English Electric, a 3rd-gen fighter, is better than the initial Su-27s. And as for the Su-35, well, Su-57 orders are still at 78 orders.

The Su-35 is cheaper, and Russia mainly now conducts long-range missile strikes, so the Su-35 is a better option than the Su-57. And the Su-57 design itself has better stealth capability than a Rafale.

Yes, they are only at 78, as against the 250 plus orders initially proposed (during FGFA talks). Instead, Russia ordered over 100 extra Su 35. So they legit cancelled Su57 orders and went for additional Su35.

As for Rafale, IAF tested Su57, and in 2018 decided that they wanna pursue MRFA instead of FGFA. They literally left after investing 300 million USD.

So both India and Russia openly declared that Su57 is a fake fifth gen plane and is worse than 4th gen planes. Literally, you can't get clearer than that.