Analysis IAF's Hypothetical Strike on Pakistan's Sargodha Air Base, A Devastating Blow with Over 120 ALBM Missiles from Su-30MKI and Mirage 2000

In a hypothetical conflict scenario, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has reportedly planned a massive strike on Pakistan's Sargodha Air Base, utilizing over 120 air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) within the first 24 hours of engagement. This operation, if executed, could significantly alter the balance of power in the region.

According to defence analysts, the operation would likely involve IAF Mirage 2000 and Su-30MKI aircraft, armed with ALBMs, taking off from various bases in northern India. These aircraft would fly towards the border, potentially employing low-altitude flight paths and electronic countermeasures to evade Pakistani radar systems. The use of ALBMs, with their ballistic trajectory and steep angle of attack, would minimize the reaction time for Pakistani defence systems.

Sargodha Air Base, a critical hub for the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), houses vital operational and training assets, including the prestigious Combat Commanders' School. The sheer volume of missiles reportedly designated for this target suggests an IAF strategy aimed at crippling the PAF's operational capabilities early in the conflict. The ALBMs would target runways, hangars, fuel depots, and command centers, aiming to maximize damage and disrupt PAF operations.

The immediate aftermath of such a strike is anticipated to be severe. The destruction of infrastructure would likely ground a significant portion of the PAF's fleet, while casualties and equipment losses would impact morale and operational readiness. The PAF would likely retaliate with counterstrikes on Indian airbases and attempt to scramble any remaining aircraft. Electronic warfare and missile defence systems would also be deployed to mitigate further IAF attacks.

This hypothetical strike carries a high risk of escalation. Pakistan might resort to nuclear threats or initiate broader military actions, including ground incursions or naval operations, to regain the initiative. The international community would react swiftly, with major powers like the United States and China, along with the United Nations, engaging in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict.

The IAF would need to maintain air superiority and be prepared for counterattacks. Further strategic strikes might be necessary if the initial attack fails to achieve the desired strategic paralysis.

While the IAF could potentially achieve a significant tactical victory by degrading the PAF's capabilities, the strategic landscape would become highly volatile. The first 24 hours of such a conflict would set the stage for a prolonged and unpredictable confrontation, with the potential for regional involvement and even the invocation of nuclear deterrence policies. The effectiveness of the strike would depend on the actual damage inflicted, the PAF's response and recovery capabilities, and the broader geopolitical context at the time of the conflict.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Why just ALBMs, the entire point of making theatre commands is that alll 3 branches work together on a mission. Along with ALBMs with IAF, army can launch its pralay TBMs and Navy can launch brahmos or sea based long range missiles at same time on the air base

 

[Arin Kumar]

Going by the current squadron strength of the IAF, we are only capable of barely defending our own airspace.

 

[Marc Spector]

An attack of this magnitude can't be a surprise for PAF because before such massive attack, there'll be days or weeks of open hostilities and military build ups from both sides. Chinese satellites will be actively helping PAF with real time data on Indian preparedness. So By the time IAF will reach the attack mark, there will be significant counter measures from PAF in terms of CAP to deter IAF from launching an attack, ground based ADS ready to target IAF' invading jets and potentially some of the imminent IAF bases like Srinagar and Pathankot will be on PAF's hot favourite targets for an instant respons to any IAF attack on PAF bases. So imo the Indian think tank will start with launching massive scale missile assault at Pakistani air and army bases, just like Russia did against Ukraine. Pakistan can't suppress this attack given its inferior and limited air defence against the salvo of highly capable Indian Cruze and ballistic missiles. Once the missiles are on their way, the next step will be IAF targeting deep inside Pakistan with navy ready to deliver the heavy punches on Pakistan Navy assets in case they try to make any move in the arabian sea. Pakistan's immediate response will be launching drone and counter missile strikes on Indian bases. India will get some bleeding there but this will only ask for more strikes from India. There will be chaos of highest order in both nations, a total catastrophe.

 

[Sridhar]

By the time IAF will reach the attack mark, there will be significant counter measures from PAF in terms of CAP to deter IAF from launching an attack, ground based ADS ready to target IAF' invading jets and potentially some of the imminent IAF bases like Srinagar and Pathankot will be on PAF's hot favourite targets for an instant respons to any IAF attack on PAF bases.

IAF has RAFALEs armed with METEOR BVRAAM which is enough to keep PAF far away from its own borders. If any PAF jet approaches within 50 KM to Indian LOC they would have already been missile locked and would get blown away. METEOR has a No Escape Zone exceeding 80 KMs.
So PAF would be wary in launching CAP close to LOC. Every single PAF air base can be targeted by Indian missiles. Both ground and air launched. The only option left is to launch their jets from highways and that too not for long.

 

[Sandeep]

Wars never go according to plan. Things can change in the last minute and it can alter things or you might need to deviate from the original plan etc. They are unpredictable.

India holds significant advantages over Pakistan as we have the economic and military advantage but it will need to take a combined approach from all three services.

 

[ASHOK CARROL]

20 x 30 = 600 aircraft available with the IAF at 90% availability will make 540 aircraft ready for operations. Launching 50-60 aircraft from 8 to 10 bases, the PAF and its bases will need to be overwhelmed with sheer numbers and onslaught. Each aircraft launching 4 to 6 sorties within 24 hours, the PAF and its bases will be pummeled with 2000 to 3000 sorties to destroy its 30-odd bases and 400 aircraft. Each PAF base will be attacked continuously 3 times every hour for 24 hours. The Pakistani operations, maintenance, logistics, arms, and ammunition dumps will be pummeled over 50 to 65 times in 24 hours. Sustained continuous bombing and attacks will completely destroy the bases and the facilities, including runways, kill over 500 PAF pilots, and destroy over 250 planes. The IAF may lose over 100-150 aircraft in dogfights and be shot down by missiles. The next morning, the IAF will launch 400 aircraft, 6 to 12 aircraft in coordinated strikes, and destroy over 80 to 100 PAF aircraft and kill or injure 60 to 80 pilots. The IAF will lose 60 to 75 aircraft on the second day and over 50 pilots. On the third day, the IAF will launch 350 aircraft in 4 to 6 sorties in 24 hours and bring the PAF to its knees with the complete destruction of the PAF bases, air assets, and have total air control over Pakistan's airspace. This scenario, practiced millions of times on computers and Monte Carlo simulations, aims to achieve air superiority over the PAF in 72 hrs. In actual battle conditions, if the on-scene Cdrs are not disturbed by "Dhoti" shivering "netas" and meek, timid "babus" of the nation's higher defence organization, the timeline will be reduced to 36 to 48 hrs, with over 15 to 20 squadrons ready to interdict the Chinese, who may not poke their noses in seeing the horrendous losses of the PAF trained and armed by them.