IAF's Squadrons May Dip Below 28 Soon, Expert Urges Two More Rafale Squadrons & Fast-Tracked Tejas Mk1A & MRFA Deal

India's air power is facing a critical juncture as the Indian Air Force (IAF) grapples with a dwindling number of fighter squadrons.

Aviation historian and analyst Angad Singh, in a recent interview with ThePrint, warned that the IAF's squadron strength is projected to fall below 30 and could even dip to 28 soon if urgent measures are not taken.

This decline would bring the IAF to its lowest force level since the post-1965 era, raising serious concerns about India's air defence capabilities.

Singh stressed the urgent need for a two-pronged approach to address this crisis. First, he advocated for the immediate procurement of two additional Rafale squadrons.

The Rafale, a French-made multirole fighter jet, has already proven its worth in the IAF, demonstrating its adaptability and combat effectiveness in diverse operational environments. Acquiring more Rafales off the shelf would provide a rapid boost to the IAF's combat readiness.

"The Rafale has already proven its strategic value in the IAF's arsenal," Singh stated. "Increasing its presence would not only bridge a gap in our squadron numbers but would also strengthen our combat readiness."

Secondly, Singh emphasized the importance of accelerating India's domestic fighter jet programs. He called for increased production of the HAL Tejas Mk1A, a light combat aircraft developed indigenously.

While the Tejas is expected to play a crucial role in modernizing the IAF, its current production rate needs to be significantly ramped up to meet the IAF's goal of a 42-squadron force.

Furthermore, Singh highlighted the critical need to expedite the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender. This program aims to procure 114 multi-role fighter jets, which would significantly enhance the IAF's capabilities. However, delays in finalizing the MRFA tender have hampered the IAF's modernization plans.

Singh warned that the projected decline in squadron strength poses a serious risk to India's ability to effectively respond to threats on two fronts, particularly from China and Pakistan. With fewer squadrons, the IAF would be stretched thin, potentially compromising its operational effectiveness.

"If we don't act now, we could see a situation where our fleet strength significantly hinders our strategic posture," Singh cautioned. "A decline to 28 squadrons puts a significant operational load on each squadron, stretching our resources thinner than ever before."

To ensure the IAF can maintain its combat edge, Singh recommended a combination of immediate Rafale acquisition for short-term needs and a long-term focus on boosting domestic production of the Tejas and expediting the MRFA deal. This dual approach would enable the IAF to replace its aging aircraft with modern, versatile fighters, safeguarding India's air superiority for years to come.

 

[Parthasarathi DasGupta]

Even if Rafale ordered toda , it won't be avaliable before 2029 atleast. The best option is buying closed down F18's production line to start production Within a year. GE F 414 will be avaliable if America wishes.

 

[Akshat]

Even if Rafale ordered toda , it won't be avaliable before 2029 atleast. The best option is buying closed down F18's production line to start production Within a year. GE F 414 will be avaliable if America wishes.

Rafale, if ordered today, will be available in November 2028. They still promise a 36 month delivery and so far they haven’t defaulted on any export deliveries. Even when they are short by a plane or 2 in any year (which has only happened once till now), the French Air Force allowed them to export and took the hit.

As for F18, it failed the Air Force trials and lost on the price front in the Navy tender. So we surely don’t want an inferior plane at a much higher price.

 

[Hugo Sanchez]

Looks like our armed forces reaping the benefits of agneeveer on the technological and equipment front.

 

[sanket]

Even if Rafale ordered toda , it won't be avaliable before 2029 atleast. The best option is buying closed down F18's production line to start production Within a year. GE F 414 will be avaliable if America wishes.

Rafale ordering not from France. There are two options: First, fast-tracking MRFA & second, scrapping MRFA & ordering Rafale under Make in India, if Dassault agrees for local assembly line with local private players & ecosystem. First Rafale can be delivered within 4 to 5 years with 24 production rate & allowing export of Rafale from this plant will not only meet domestic needs but also earn foreign exchange. Bharat wants 114 fighter jets to be locally manufactured & not imported jets under MRFA. There is no point in F-18 to be produced within a year; it will take almost 3 years to deliver the first F-18 even after it is ordered today. Second, F-18 has to meet parameters set by IAF. Without evaluation, how directly will F-18 be ordered? On what basis? Third, F-18 is an old design. IAF wants fighter jets for the next 40 to 50 years.

 

[Shiva]

he he.
No immediate action is needed, at least for next 30 years!!!

of course, immediate action is needed for the foreign company lobbying personnel to exploit more Indian public tax money.

HAL is alreday producing 500 AL-31FP engines and life time of existing Su-30 will increase to 30 more years. Super Sukoid conversion is already well tested. Any improvements in electronics related things anyhow can be done on these.
So, we will be having a formiddble thousands of Su-30MKII/Super Sukoi 4.5++ Gen.
See, the quantity. Thousands of aircrafts.

It is very easy to handle either 5th Gen or 6th Gen rival aircraft with a sysmatic plan of 3 or 4 4.5Gen aircraft. Also, our advanced technologies in radars, will pave way farther.

If urgency is needed to India, then it is only on the critical technology of mettallurgy to produce the critical components we were importing from GE and Rosonbo... of Russia for the wider metallic sheets used in several engines.

Instead of focussing on ToT or parallel development on these, spending on additional imports is a foolish decision.

More over, already HAL has technology know-how and if requried, then can also develop 2000 or 3000 more Super Sukois, incase India not become self sufficient in engine technology.

Moreover,
if Tejas and AMCA designs are modified and replaced with AL-31FP engine along with increase in internal fuel capacity by 100kg more then the resultant product will have far better performance than the exiting planned Tejas and AMCA variants in terms of maneurability, speed, range. There will be little compromise on RCS but it can be mitigated by making additional material surroundign engines, by taking inputs from AL-5xFP engine arrangements.

So, boasting that, there is emergency kind of urgent requiement is a complete non sense and misleading...

 

[Pramkumar]

The only solution is Kaveri based twin engine fighter

 

[Utopian]

Use that money to buy engine tech immediately off shelf Buy ATAGS buy more sophisticated radars..

 

[Chinese eater]

Rafale ordering not from France. There are two options: First, fast-tracking MRFA & second, scrapping MRFA & ordering Rafale under Make in India, if Dassault agrees for local assembly line with local private players & ecosystem. First Rafale can be delivered within 4 to 5 years with 24 production rate & allowing export of Rafale from this plant will not only meet domestic needs but also earn foreign exchange. Bharat wants 114 fighter jets to be locally manufactured & not imported jets under MRFA. There is no point in F-18 to be produced within a year; it will take almost 3 years to deliver the first F-18 even after it is ordered today. Second, F-18 has to meet parameters set by IAF. Without evaluation, how directly will F-18 be ordered? On what basis? Third, F-18 is an old design. IAF wants fighter jets for the next 40 to 50 years.

Indian Navy had shortlisted FA18 super hornet and Rafale for testing and Rafale was selected among the two. Rafale and FA18 would be L1 or L2 bidder. Its upto government what they know is the best for us. American fighter jets are a trap. There would be so much strategic actions if India fly american fighters. Russia would open the doors for Pakistan flying Su57 or Su35 would you like that?

 

[Chinese eater]

In the first 36 Rafale purchase contract. Its was condition to set up make in India assembly plant.

AMRO set up

technical assistance in Kaveri

30% of the contract value was to be employed back into Indian market.

France didn't meet terms and conditions for Rafale Dassault was also fined for not obliging. That's the reason govt didn't follow up with next order and hesitate for further purchase.

 

[INDIAN]

Why we this to happen in first place , are our defense planers are sleeping, indigenous programs all are running late, depending upon foreign engine and other parts. We are not buying from outside and our ingenious programs are also nowhere complete.
AMCA is still in drawing board.

 

[Sandeep]

India isn’t going to buy more foreign jets at all.

We need to focus on fixing the problems and continue producing Tejas MK1A. We also need to quickly develop and start manufacturing the Tejas MK2 and AMCA prototypes. Those are the main projects that we need to focus on.

 

[Varaaah]

IAF must be forced to take Tejas as it is and improve it itself. IAF can place orders with HAL/DRDO for more modernand better items to upgrade it. How long will you depend on foreign maal? Make the choice that from now on you will only go for deshi maal and put your money where your mouth is.

 

[Anant]

The only solution is Kaveri based twin engine fighter

For that to happen, three things are needed: A Kaveri engine that can be used on fighters, a twin-engine fighter design capable of using the Kaveri, and efficient aircraft manufacturing. We have exactly zero of those three things as of now.

 

[Anant]

he he.
No immediate action is needed, at least for next 30 years!!!

of course, immediate action is needed for the foreign company lobbying personnel to exploit more Indian public tax money.

HAL is alreday producing 500 AL-31FP engines and life time of existing Su-30 will increase to 30 more years. Super Sukoid conversion is already well tested. Any improvements in electronics related things anyhow can be done on these.
So, we will be having a formiddble thousands of Su-30MKII/Super Sukoi 4.5++ Gen.
See, the quantity. Thousands of aircrafts.

It is very easy to handle either 5th Gen or 6th Gen rival aircraft with a sysmatic plan of 3 or 4 4.5Gen aircraft. Also, our advanced technologies in radars, will pave way farther.

If urgency is needed to India, then it is only on the critical technology of mettallurgy to produce the critical components we were importing from GE and Rosonbo... of Russia for the wider metallic sheets used in several engines.

Instead of focussing on ToT or parallel development on these, spending on additional imports is a foolish decision.

More over, already HAL has technology know-how and if requried, then can also develop 2000 or 3000 more Super Sukois, incase India not become self sufficient in engine technology.

Moreover,
if Tejas and AMCA designs are modified and replaced with AL-31FP engine along with increase in internal fuel capacity by 100kg more then the resultant product will have far better performance than the exiting planned Tejas and AMCA variants in terms of maneurability, speed, range. There will be little compromise on RCS but it can be mitigated by making additional material surroundign engines, by taking inputs from AL-5xFP engine arrangements.

So, boasting that, there is emergency kind of urgent requiement is a complete non sense and misleading...

To start with, I hope for your sake that you were being facetious. Regardless, in the off chance you weren't, here goes:

1. While the Su-30MKI as a type will serve for another 30 or so years, not all airframes will last that long.

2. The Super Sukhoi upgrades are only conceptualized and tested individually. They have not been integrated on a Su-30MKI yet, so any challenges with that are yet to be handled.

3. Thousands of Super Sukhois? Are you feeling alright? We will, at the most, have 270-ish airframes of that configuration, though a more likely number is 180-200. Just saying thousands doesn't make it thousands.

4. A mature aircraft development establishment takes decades. You can't just kickstart it to fifth gear immediately. Yes, while our spending on R&D needs to increase massively, we have to keep options in the meantime. MRFA has become a quantitative necessity rather than a qualitative one at this point.

5. HAL knows little about Su-30MKI manufacturing, and still relies on Russia for critical components. So, no, they can't manufacture 2,000-3,000 more jets, as you so callously state.

6. Engines are not a plug-and-play thing. While it might just about be theoretically possible to fit in an AL-31 onto the Tejas, the same wouldn't hold true for AMCA. The reason for that is size. AMCA as a design would have to be enlarged to accommodate two AL-31s. Oh, and that is on top of the fact that you'd have to essentially re-draft both designs from scratch.

 

[Anant]

In the first 36 Rafale purchase contract. Its was condition to set up make in India assembly plant.

AMRO set up

technical assistance in Kaveri

30% of the contract value was to be employed back into Indian market.

France didn't meet terms and conditions for Rafale Dassault was also fined for not obliging. That's the reason govt didn't follow up with next order and hesitate for further purchase.

Um, nope. The condition for a plant in India was under MMRCA, which called for 126 aircraft. Bringing that down to 36 threw the concept of an Indian plant out of the window, thanks to simple economics. As for the MRO centre, well, they have been working on that now.

The order for 36 Rafales was simply an order for 36 off-the-shelf jets.

 

[Anant]

Use that money to buy engine tech immediately off shelf Buy ATAGS buy more sophisticated radars..

You do realise engine technology is not exactly something that is available off-the-shelf, right?

 

[Anant]

IAF must be forced to take Tejas as it is and improve it itself. IAF can place orders with HAL/DRDO for more modernand better items to upgrade it. How long will you depend on foreign maal? Make the choice that from now on you will only go for deshi maal and put your money where your mouth is.

Ask HAL to delivery the jets, then? HAL said they'd deliver the Tejas Mk 1A by the end of March this year, and that has come and gone almost eight and a half months back. Yes, GE also shares the blame, but when HAL has boasted about delivering jets with Category 2 engines, I can't see any of those. Their last statement was for delivering the first Tejas Mk 1A by mid-November, which is today (15th November). If they manage to deliver that jet in the next 40 or so hours, I'll be surprised.

 

[vasu gali]

Better to buy 114 GRIPEN E or SU 57 with full ToT something which the others don't offer. If US impose sanctions, then switch over to AL 31 / AL 41 engines or even AL 51 to be provided to SU 57. Early decision is necessary to safeguard the country

 

[Kailash]

Rafale, if ordered today, will be available in November 2028. They still promise a 36 month delivery and so far they haven’t defaulted on any export deliveries. Even when they are short by a plane or 2 in any year (which has only happened once till now), the French Air Force allowed them to export and took the hit.

As for F18, it failed the Air Force trials and lost on the price front in the Navy tender. So we surely don’t want an inferior plane at a much higher price.

"if ordered today" that is a very big if LOL.

UK is not going to buy more typhoons - it is the end of line for this jet anyways. Typhoon was the only other aircraft to pass the technical evaluations las time. Russian jets are rules out, gripen is not a serious enough contended and Rafale will take time. F21 is operated by Pak, F15 is as heavy as Su-30Mki.

F18 is a bad choice, but is IAF/India in a position to choose? Do we have the luxury of time?

 

[Kailash]

Rafale ordering not from France. There are two options: First, fast-tracking MRFA & second, scrapping MRFA & ordering Rafale under Make in India, if Dassault agrees for local assembly line with local private players & ecosystem. First Rafale can be delivered within 4 to 5 years with 24 production rate & allowing export of Rafale from this plant will not only meet domestic needs but also earn foreign exchange. Bharat wants 114 fighter jets to be locally manufactured & not imported jets under MRFA. There is no point in F-18 to be produced within a year; it will take almost 3 years to deliver the first F-18 even after it is ordered today. Second, F-18 has to meet parameters set by IAF. Without evaluation, how directly will F-18 be ordered? On what basis? Third, F-18 is an old design. IAF wants fighter jets for the next 40 to 50 years.

Shifting the assembly line here is only going to delay these fighter procurements further..

mk2 and AMCA are our realistic options. F18 has a slight preference - becomes tolerable - due to engine commonality.

 

[Akshat]

"if ordered today" that is a very big if LOL.

UK is not going to buy more typhoons - it is the end of line for this jet anyways. Typhoon was the only other aircraft to pass the technical evaluations las time. Russian jets are rules out, gripen is not a serious enough contended and Rafale will take time. F21 is operated by Pak, F15 is as heavy as Su-30Mki.

F18 is a bad choice, but is IAF/India in a position to choose? Do we have the luxury of time?

As I have said many times in the past, Rafale has enough surplus capacity. They will be at 3 jets per month next year. Even if there is a delay, they will get there in 2026. Mind you, they are already at that rate at the component level so there are no supply chain issues left. So chances of any delays from now on are negligible. So they will have enough surplus to supply all our 114 jets, assuming we buy from France, before 2034.

As for F18, it failed the trials last time and it was more costly as compared to Rafale in the navy tender. So inferior and costly.

EF might be the only other choice for us, though it is significantly more costly.

 

[P2S2]

Rafale ordering not from France. There are two options: First, fast-tracking MRFA & second, scrapping MRFA & ordering Rafale under Make in India, if Dassault agrees for local assembly line with local private players & ecosystem. First Rafale can be delivered within 4 to 5 years with 24 production rate & allowing export of Rafale from this plant will not only meet domestic needs but also earn foreign exchange. Bharat wants 114 fighter jets to be locally manufactured & not imported jets under MRFA. There is no point in F-18 to be produced within a year; it will take almost 3 years to deliver the first F-18 even after it is ordered today. Second, F-18 has to meet parameters set by IAF. Without evaluation, how directly will F-18 be ordered? On what basis? Third, F-18 is an old design. IAF wants fighter jets for the next 40 to 50 years.

Refraining from taking shortcuts creates innovation. In case of a surprise there are sufficient other resources that could be called upon.