India and Myanmar have always been friendly neighbors, but things are getting a little complicated. For years, India has maintained a good relationship with Myanmar's military leadership, also known as the junta. But now, experts say China is swooping in, making friends with both the junta and the rebels who oppose them. This is especially worrisome in Myanmar's Rakhine state, a strategic area of the country.
Why Rakhine State Matters
Rakhine state is important because it has ports built by both India and China. It's also home to the Arakan Army, a powerful rebel group that, for now, doesn't want total independence from Myanmar. Interestingly, the Arakan Army would like to talk to India, but those communication lines haven't been opened yet.
Balancing Act Gets Tricky
India's got a high-wire act to perform here. Rajiv Bhatia, India's former ambassador to Myanmar, says that India can't just be concerned about the situation– they need to take purposeful action. This means working with other Southeast Asian countries and carefully engaging with both the Myanmar government
and the influential forces who might oppose them.
Potential Trouble Ahead
So, what happens if India doesn't manage this situation well? Experts warn that old problems like rebellions in India's Northeast, as well as drug smuggling and human trafficking, could get a lot worse. Even worse, India could lose control of important projects they've built in Myanmar if China starts pulling all the strings.
China's Power Play
China's got its fingers in everything in Myanmar. They basically control the economy, giving them sway over both the junta and the rebels. The observer also points out that a strategic China-Myanmar corridor would make China a whole lot closer to India's coastline, something India definitely doesn't want.
The Bottom Line
India's got a lot to think about when it comes to Myanmar. Do they double down on their relationship with the junta and risk alienating the rebels? Or do they open channels with the rebels and risk angering the government? It's a complicated situation, and India's next moves will be crucial to its interests in the region.
