India's recent advancements in its sea-based nuclear capabilities, marked by the commissioning of the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) INS Arighaat and the imminent launch of INS Aridhaman, are raising significant concerns about regional stability.
While these developments bolster India's strategic deterrence, they also introduce a host of destabilizing factors that could trigger a new arms race, particularly with Pakistan.
The induction of these advanced SSBNs, equipped with long-range nuclear missiles, significantly enhances India's second-strike capability. This shift in nuclear strategy, while aimed at ensuring a credible deterrent, places immense pressure on neighboring Pakistan to respond, potentially leading to a dangerous escalation of military tensions.
Experts warn that India's track record of security lapses and weaknesses in its command and control systems exacerbate the risks associated with this expanding nuclear arsenal. The decentralized nature of SSBN operations raises concerns about the possibility of miscommunication or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.
Pakistan, feeling threatened by India's growing naval nuclear capabilities, may feel compelled to enhance its own sea-based deterrent or pursue other countermeasures. This could trigger a cascade effect, further destabilizing the region and complicating crisis management efforts.
The international community is increasingly concerned about the implications of India's SSBN program. The lack of transparency and accountability, coupled with India's refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), raise questions about its commitment to responsible nuclear stewardship.
As India's SSBN fleet grows, the potential for nuclear proliferation and the risk of miscalculation in times of crisis also increase. The world watches with apprehension as India navigates this precarious path, urging greater transparency and regional dialogue to prevent an uncontrollable arms race in South Asia.
