The Indian Air Force's (IAF) ambitious Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program, intended to procure 114 new fighter jets, is facing significant delays, raising concerns about the potential impact on the IAF's combat readiness.
The MRFA program, initiated in 2018, aimed to replace the aging fleet of MiG-21 and MiG-27 fighter aircraft. However, progress has been slow, with the latest update from Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari in October 2023 providing little indication of substantial advancement.
Based on the complexities involved in such a large-scale defense procurement, including the selection process, contract negotiation, and the integration of indigenous weaponry under the "Make in India" initiative, a finalized deal and the first deliveries of the MRFA are not expected before 2030.
This timeline is in line with previous experiences, such as the acquisition of 36 Rafale jets from France. Despite the initial agreement being signed in 2016, the first deliveries only occurred in late 2019, with the entire fleet arriving by December 2022 – a process that took over six years.
The MRFA program faces several additional hurdles. The selection process itself is complex, with eight contenders vying for the contract. Negotiating a contract with a foreign manufacturer or government can be a lengthy process, especially when considering the intricacies of technology transfer and production under the "Make in India" initiative.
Even with an optimistic timeline of a signed deal by 2026, the first MRFA delivery is unlikely to occur before 2029. This delay could significantly impact the IAF's combat readiness, as its existing fleet continues to age.
To mitigate the potential impact of these delays, experts suggest that the IAF could explore options for quicker acquisition of fighter jets alongside the pursuit of the MRFA program. This could involve considering off-the-shelf purchases of existing fighter aircraft or leasing options, while the long-term MRFA program continues.
The delay in the MRFA program underscores the challenges inherent in large-scale defense procurements. The IAF's ability to maintain its combat readiness in the face of these delays will be a critical test of its strategic planning and adaptability.