India's Nuclear Submarine Focus Over Aircraft Carriers Reflects Modern Naval Warfare Realities, A Potent Tool to Counter China in IOR

India is making a significant change in its naval strategy, prioritizing the development of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) over the acquisition of more aircraft carriers.

This shift, confirmed by reports that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has paused plans for a third aircraft carrier, underscores a focus on bolstering undersea warfare capabilities.

Experts, including Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan, a Senior Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), view this decision as a "major doctrinal shift." It represents a re-evaluation of India's strategic needs, with a growing emphasis on undersea warfare as a powerful deterrent against regional threats.

This prioritization of SSNs is in line with evolving global maritime strategies. Unlike aircraft carriers, which need considerable logistical support and are becoming easier to target with new missile technologies, nuclear-powered attack submarines can stay submerged for extended periods, travel at high speeds, and remain undetected. These features make SSNs exceptionally effective for projecting power and controlling access to key waterways.

The Indo-Pacific region's security landscape, particularly the increasing naval presence of China, is a key factor driving India's strategic shift. China's navy already operates a sizable fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, including both attack submarines (like the Shang-class) and ballistic missile submarines (like the Jin-class).

According to the US Department of Defense's 2023 report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China, the PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy) is expected to continue growing its submarine force. India's focus on its own SSN program is viewed as a necessary step to ensure a strong underwater deterrent and safeguard its maritime interests.

The Indian Navy has historically considered the relative merits of aircraft carriers versus an advanced submarine force. Aircraft Carriers are very useful for the projection of force and providing air dominance, however, SSNs offer advantages such as stealth, unlimited range, due to nuclear power, and the element of surprise. The decision to concentrate on SSNs indicates a move towards a more indirect, or asymmetric, approach to naval warfare.

Currently, the Indian Navy operates two aircraft carriers, the INS Vikramaditya and INS Vikrant. India's first domestically built carrier, INS Vikrant, was officially put into service in 2022. Plans for a third carrier, which was to be named INS Vishal, have been shelved as resources are redirected to the SSN program.

This decision aslso supports India's larger goal of boosting domestic defence production, as the SSN project involves close cooperation between the DRDO and leading Indian shipbuilding companies. The DRDO's Submarine Design Bureau is the primary agency responsible for the indigenous SSN design.

 

[R. Singh]

Good ! We must make at least 12 SSNs for our both flanks and 10 Kazan class SSN for Indo Pacific and Atlantic areas ! If we are pausing AC it ok but if rquired then make 80000+ton nuclear powered ACs not PAPPU 45000 ton ACs !

 

[Devasahayam]

Good to focus on SS(G)N instead of flattops -- reiterate that use Arihant class as baseline, swap out their silo-like ballistic-missile tubes for VLS at 4 VLS per silo (to speed up development and acquisition), then develop cruise-missiles of range 5,000 km to fit them!

 

[Somebody]

In only a few years, India will become a major naval force, especially after making six TKMS Type 214 submarines.

 

[FIDA INDIA]

Did any Indian official ever say that a third aircraft carrier is not required, or is it just media reports?

 

[Varaaah]

An AC is useful against militarily weak nations, but not of much use against militarily strong nations. The US 7th Fleet had to withdraw from the Bay of Bengal after the Soviets sent their nuclear subs there and warned they would sink the US AC.

Poonch ghutno mein dabaa kar bhaagaa thaa US. So, this usefulness of nuclear attack subs is known from the 1970s. Only Indian admirals/GoI/MoD/IN seemed not to know it.

 

[obiwankenubi jedi]

Yes, the aircraft carrier battle group is the strategy of USA, while the nuclear submarine fleet is a Soviet/Russian approach to counter it and defend the mainland with denial.

With China going for a large aircraft carrier fleet to counter USA, India is doing what USSR did to counter them, is more of a defensive approach, but it's a better utilization of limited resources.

With this, India showcases to the world that it doesn't have expansionist ambitions, but if anyone messes with us, we will not take it too kindly and will give a fitting response.

We are going for minimal deterrence for defense as against a massive expansion of military forces as expansionist China is building. We want to keep China and its cronies at bay, not going for a head-on, all-out strategy.

 

[Anant]

Did any Indian official ever say that a third aircraft carrier is not required, or is it just media reports?

Yes, it has been kind of confirmed by the Navy. Essentially, IAC-II will be a replacement for Vikramaditya rather than be the third carrier.

Vikramaditya was initially supposed to have a life of 40 years in Indian service during initial negotiations of the ship's purchase. Given the ship's condition and the refurbishment, this was reduced to 35 years. Ideally, for IAC-II to be a third carrier, Vikramaditya would have had to serve till the late 2040s, since in that case, IAC-III would start construction in the mid-2030s (once IAC-II would go into fitting out and preliminary sea trials).

However, from what it looks like now, Vikramaditya is in considerably worse shape than expected, and it is now estimated that she will not have a useful life beyond 25-28 years (that is, 2038-41). As such, she would have to be retired around the late 2030s. Therefore, IAC-II, which would enter service around this time, would give the Navy a temporary three-carrier fleet before it came down to two again with Vikramaditya's retirement.

A sustained three-carrier fleet will have to wait for now. Ideally, we would now see two larger carriers being built, with the first entering service in the late 2040s or early 2050s (thereby giving a sustained three-carrier force) and the second one in the late 2050s or early 2060s, right in time to replace Vikrant.

 

[Anant]

In only a few years, India will become a major naval force, especially after making six TKMS Type 214 submarines.

India is already a major naval force. In terms of power projection, we list somewhere around 5th globally (behind the US, China, Russia, and Japan). In local defence, we rank around 7th (the aforementioned nations and add South Korea and Taiwan).

But, yes, the Navy is going towards an upwards trajectory that will put us firmly in the Top 4. Of course, even with the present rankings, it is estimated that a large chunk of Russia's fleet (mostly dating back to the Soviet era) isn't exactly operable for long periods, so we could already be in the Top 4.

 

[Somebody]

India is already a major naval force. In terms of power projection, we list somewhere around 5th globally (behind the US, China, Russia, and Japan). In local defence, we rank around 7th (the aforementioned nations and add South Korea and Taiwan).

But, yes, the Navy is going towards an upwards trajectory that will put us firmly in the Top 4. Of course, even with the present rankings, it is estimated that a large chunk of Russia's fleet (mostly dating back to the Soviet era) isn't exactly operable for long periods, so we could already be in the Top 4.

Once IN adds MQ9 sea guardians and 6-8 more P8s and 4 Juan Carlos ships that L&T is building, they will become even stronger. IAF is the weakest out of the three arms.

 

[DS]

India’s offensive- defence strategy in the 21st century is correct. The IN has a correct focus on nuclear powered SSN submarines . That is a correct priority one for any world class navy .

Our geography determines our Maritime Strategy . We are an archipelagic country with deep reach into the Indian Ocean. Our SSN’s must be nuclear powered to ensure our SLOC’s are patrolled efficiently as they are 5000nm plus long .

We have a 11000 kms long coastline and nuclear powered SSN’s are necessary first to efficiently cover our waters rapidly especially with China emerging as a threat in the Indian Ocean.

SSBN and SSN’s must be the first acquisition of the IN and with an efficient ARIHANT design in our fleet , a slimmer version of this submarine , without the missile hump can be easily designed. This nuclear SSN at around 4000 tonnes will be fast and capable of 30 knots . The new BARC designed nuclear propulsion plant will suffice in Mk1 production for first 6 SSN’’s .

Time to build fast at home has arrived as ARIHANT class submarines are 80% plus indigenous.

 

[Kiran Kumar]

India is already a major naval force. In terms of power projection, we list somewhere around 5th globally (behind the US, China, Russia, and Japan). In local defence, we rank around 7th (the aforementioned nations and add South Korea and Taiwan).

But, yes, the Navy is going towards an upwards trajectory that will put us firmly in the Top 4. Of course, even with the present rankings, it is estimated that a large chunk of Russia's fleet (mostly dating back to the Soviet era) isn't exactly operable for long periods, so we could already be in the Top 4.

Indian Navy is not up to the mark to counter China in the IOR. We have to wait at least 10 more years to counter China in the IOR and Arabian Sea.