India's Rafale M Poised to Outperform Chinese Reverse-Engineered J-15 in Key Combat Metrics as Design Flaws Persist in PLAAN's Carrier-Based Fighter

India's acquisition of the Rafale M naval fighter jet is poised to give the Indian Navy a significant edge over China's carrier-based aircraft, according to an Indian Navy official.

In a candid assessment, the official stated that the Rafale M significantly outclasses China's modernized J-15B and J-15D fighters in all key combat capabilities.

The Rafale M, a naval variant of the renowned French Rafale fighter, is purpose-built for carrier operations. It boasts advanced avionics, weaponry, and a robust airframe designed to withstand the rigors of naval combat.

In contrast, the J-15B and J-15D, derivatives of the Soviet-era Sukhoi Su-33, continue to grapple with inherited design flaws despite significant Chinese investment in modernization.

"The J-15 series, despite its upgrades, carries the legacy of the Su-33's problems, which have been well-documented," the official noted. "These include issues with the aircraft's weight, fuel efficiency, and operational reliability."

The J-15 was reverse-engineered and modified from a prototype of the Su-33 acquired from Ukraine. However, fundamental design challenges persist, impacting its overall combat effectiveness.

The official highlighted that India's decision to opt for the MiG-29K over the Su-33 for its aircraft carriers was influenced by similar reliability and performance concerns that even the Russian Navy faced. The Russian Navy's eventual transition from the Su-33 to the MiG-29K further underscores the unresolved problems with the former.

China has acknowledged these shortcomings and is now developing the J-35, a fifth-generation carrier-based fighter, with the aim of phasing out the J-15 variants. The J-35 is expected to bring stealth capabilities, enhanced avionics, and superior combat performance to the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

However, despite the J-35's development, the PLAN continues to induct J-15B and J-15D aircraft, highlighting their continued efforts to expanding their naval aviation capabilities. These jets, however, still carry the design limitations of the Su-33, hindering their effectiveness against modern adversaries like the Rafale M.

The Rafale M's superiority in areas such as radar, electronic warfare, payload capacity, and operational range provides the Indian Navy with a strategic advantage in potential naval engagements. Its compatibility with India's aircraft carriers, coupled with its proven combat record in various international operations, positions it as a formidable asset in the region.

 

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[Anant]

Don't go with Wikipedia numbers - all 125 MiG 21 Bis are still in active service. Do the reverse math - 30 active fighter aircraft squadrons with IAF, do the Wiki numbers add up to 30X18 = 540? No, right?

Retirement for the MiG21 Bis is delayed due to the Tejas Mk1A production delays.

You want the math? Fine, so here goes:

1. There are 13 Su-30MKI squadrons (Nos. 2, 4, 8, 15, 20, 24, 30, 31, 102, 106, 220, 221, and 222 Squadrons).

2. There are 6 Jaguar squadrons (Nos. 5, 6, 14, 16, 27, and 224 Squadrons).

3. There are 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons (Nos. 1, 7, and 9 Sqaudrons).

4. There are 3 MiG-29 squadrons (Nos. 28, 47, and 223 Squadrons).

5. There are 2 Tejas squadrons (Nos. 17, and 45 Squadrons).

6. There are 2 Rafale squadrons (Nos. 17, and 101 Squadrons).

7. There are 2 MiG-21 squadrons (Nos. 3, and 23 Squadrons).

That adds up to 31 squadrons. In terms of aircraft numbers, we have 259 Su-30MKIs overall, 115 Jaguars, 47 Mirage 2000s, 59 MiG-29s, 35 Tejas, 36 Rafales, and 40 MiG-21s in service, including trainers. That comes to a total of 591 fighters.

Oh, and I am not using Wikipedia numbers. I am using OSINT figures coupled with the figures given by the IAF themselves. Are you calling the IAF liars?

As for the MiG-21 retirement, it was supposed to, after multiple delays, be concluded by 2025. Thanks for GE's issues and HAL's incompetence, we have had to push the retirement of these last two squadrons to 2026.

 

[bonito]

Oh engines are the least of our problems. As the IAF chief recently said, even the original 40 planes, for which engines were delivered way back in 2020, including spare engines, have not been delivered even till now. So engines are not our problem, HAL is.

Atlast chief told the same I have voicing this for last 1 year. There is 33 GE404 engines in inventory.

it is really scary HAL is not open with its issues and neither we don't see them taking actions to resolve while they sit idle with those engines

 

[abhinav srivastava]

In next 5-10 years they will have J35's naval variant.

 

[Akshat]

Atlast chief told the same I have voicing this for last 1 year. There is 33 GE404 engines in inventory.

it is really scary HAL is not open with its issues and neither we don't see them taking actions to resolve while they sit idle with those engines

So there is something interesting here. While Indian does have extra engines, the spare ones are all with IAF, not with HAL. They are for maintenance etc., and some of them might not be brand new as they might have been used and replaced by IAF during regular maintenance. In reality, there are very few fresh engines. And any such engines beyond the 40 meant for the first 40 jets (and the relevant number of spare engines which haven't been delivered yet to IAF as they will be delivered when the delivery of the remaining jets will happen) can't be used by HAL, at least not without permission of IAF and MoD. They will have to buy them back from the IAF, and IAF will have to undertake a number of decisions to do any such thing.

However, they do have enough fresh (aka brand new) engines to make at least the original 40 planes. So those jets at the very least must have been supplied to IAF which is something HAL hasn't done so far.

 

[Arin Kumar]

You want the math? Fine, so here goes:

1. There are 13 Su-30MKI squadrons (Nos. 2, 4, 8, 15, 20, 24, 30, 31, 102, 106, 220, 221, and 222 Squadrons).

2. There are 6 Jaguar squadrons (Nos. 5, 6, 14, 16, 27, and 224 Squadrons).

3. There are 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons (Nos. 1, 7, and 9 Sqaudrons).

4. There are 3 MiG-29 squadrons (Nos. 28, 47, and 223 Squadrons).

5. There are 2 Tejas squadrons (Nos. 17, and 45 Squadrons).

6. There are 2 Rafale squadrons (Nos. 17, and 101 Squadrons).

7. There are 2 MiG-21 squadrons (Nos. 3, and 23 Squadrons).

That adds up to 31 squadrons. In terms of aircraft numbers, we have 259 Su-30MKIs overall, 115 Jaguars, 47 Mirage 2000s, 59 MiG-29s, 35 Tejas, 36 Rafales, and 40 MiG-21s in service, including trainers. That comes to a total of 591 fighters.

Oh, and I am not using Wikipedia numbers. I am using OSINT figures coupled with the figures given by the IAF themselves. Are you calling the IAF liars?

As for the MiG-21 retirement, it was supposed to, after multiple delays, be concluded by 2025. Thanks for GE's issues and HAL's incompetence, we have had to push the retirement of these last two squadrons to 2026.

Consider the Jaguar and Mig21 squadrons to be ZERO.

Because in modern day warfare they are useless junk.

So we basically have -> (31-8) ~ 23 squadrons.

Besides Mig 29 and Su 30 MKI keep crashing from time to time every 1-2 years.

So it is safe to assume our squadron strength to be 22.

Our Airforce demands 50 Squadrons .

 

[Arin Kumar]

All these assessment mean nothing. Because even if 36 Rafale-M are able to shoot down 36 J 15B/D, China will immediately supply another 36 J 15B/D to that aircraft carrier.

for India loss of a single Rafale-M is = loss of USD $250 million which we have to pay with US Dollars
for China loss of a single J 15B/D = loss of USD$ 40 to 50 million - which they will pay in RMB. RMB is printed by China.