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Following India's "Operation Sindoor" on May 7, 2025, a series of precision airstrikes against alleged terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), Pakistan's military and media made bold assertions of shooting down multiple Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft, including advanced Rafale fighter jets.
However, detailed analysis by a French aerospace expert, supported by India’s Press Information Bureau (PIB) and other defence analysts, has largely discredited these claims, suggesting they were part of a coordinated disinformation effort. The Indian operation was a response to a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22, 2025.
Pakistani military spokesperson Lt. Gen. Ahmad Sharif Chaudhary, alongside Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, announced that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) had downed three IAF Rafale jets, one MiG-29, one Su-30MKI, and an Israeli-made Heron drone. They attributed these alleged successes to Chinese-made Chengdu J-10C fighter jets using PL-15E air-to-air missiles.
These pronouncements were quickly amplified by pro-Pakistan social media accounts, which circulated images purported to be Rafale debris from Wuyan village in Jammu and Kashmir, featuring markings allegedly from the French company Le Bozec et Gautier and the acronym "RFL," often associated with Rafale. Another image, supposedly from Bathinda, Punjab, claimed to show wreckage with the serial number BS-001, said to belong to India’s first Rafale aircraft.
The narrative of Indian aircraft losses gained some initial international traction, with reports from outlets such as the CNN citing an unnamed French intelligence official who suggested at least one Rafale might have been downed.
Pakistan’s claims aimed to portray Operation Sindoor as a significant misstep for India, and some Western media, including Reuters and The Washington Post, initially reported on the possibility of Indian losses.
However, a detailed technical examination by a French aerospace expert, as reported by The EurAsian Times and France 24’s Observers, has significantly undermined Pakistan's assertions.
The expert analyzed photographs of the supposed Rafale wreckage from Wuyan and identified the debris as an external fuel tank, not definitive proof of a downed aircraft.
Critically, the tank displayed the acronym "RPL," which stands for "réservoir pendulaire largable" (jettisonable external tank), not "RFL."
Furthermore, the manufacturing date on the tank was December 1984, more than a year before the Dassault Rafale's first test flight in July 1986. This timeline strongly indicates the tank belonged to a Mirage 2000, another French-manufactured aircraft operated by the IAF, which entered service in the 1980s.
The expert clarified, "These images are not proof that a plane was shot down. It shows a drop tank. When a jet goes on a mission, once it has used its fuel, it will lighten its load and drop its tank. It’s something planes intentionally release during their missions."
This assessment was supported by Trevor Ball, an associate researcher at Armament Research Services, who stated that while the Wuyan debris was consistent with a Mirage 2000 or Rafale fuel tank, it did not, by itself, signify a crash.
India's Press Information Bureau (PIB) Fact Check unit also moved quickly to counter what it termed Pakistani propaganda. The PIB identified a widely circulated image, alleged to be a downed Rafale near Bahawalpur, as a photograph from a 2021 IAF MiG-21 crash in Moga, Punjab.
Another image, claimed to show a Rafale engulfed in flames, was traced back to a 2024 MiG-29 crash in Rajasthan. Additionally, the PIB debunked a video purporting to show a PAF assault on Srinagar Airbase, confirming the footage was from sectarian clashes in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region in 2024.
While the Indian government has not officially confirmed any aircraft losses from Operation Sindoor, a senior IAF official noted during a press briefing on May 11 that "losses are part of combat operations," without offering specific details. This lack of explicit denial initially fueled some speculation. However, India's proactive stance in debunking Pakistan's visual "evidence" suggests confidence that no Rafale jets were lost.
Several factors contribute to the skepticism surrounding Pakistan’s claims:
- Lack of Verifiable Proof: Pakistan has not presented credible, independent evidence such as clear video footage, satellite imagery of crash sites, or wreckage unequivocally identified as belonging to a Rafale. Claims regarding a tailfin with serial number BS-001, reported by Flight Global, were questioned due to apparent inconsistencies in the rudder's text and seam alignment, hinting at possible digital manipulation.
- Technical Considerations: The Rafale is a 4.5-generation multirole fighter equipped with sophisticated electronic warfare systems and advanced weaponry like MBDA Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles. The assertion that three such aircraft were downed by J-10Cs using PL-15E missiles has been met with skepticism from defence analysts, although some, like Ashley Tellis of Carnegie, cautiously suggested one Rafale might have been lost in an extremely long-range engagement, a claim that remains unconfirmed.
- Misidentification of Drop Tank:The conclusive evidence that the Wuyan fuel tank predates the Rafale program and is consistent with Mirage 2000 specifications, combined with the fact that jettisoning fuel tanks is a standard combat procedure, severely weakens this piece of Pakistan's purported evidence.
Internationally, the unverified claims were reportedly used by some Chinese bloggers to promote the capabilities of the J-10C fighter, particularly in the context of regional dynamics concerning Taiwan. However, without substantiated evidence of a Rafale shootdown, these assertions hold little weight.
As of now, expert analysis and the lack of concrete proof indicate that claims of Indian Rafale jets being shot down during Operation Sindoor are unfounded, with key evidence pointing to a misidentified Mirage 2000 drop tank.
