Pakistan finds itself in a precarious situation, facing mounting economic woes while simultaneously bolstering its military capabilities. The nation's foreign debt has reached a staggering $124.5 billion, equating to 42% of its GDP. Yet, despite this financial burden, Pakistan has been actively expanding its military arsenal, largely through arms imports and collaborations with China.
A report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that China supplied a whopping 82% of Pakistan's arms imports between 2019 and 2023. This trend has sparked analysis in publications like the EurAsian Times, suggesting China's aim is to counter the influence of Western alliances in the region, including India's involvement in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).
A significant milestone in this military partnership was the 2015 agreement for China to construct eight Hangor-class submarines for Pakistan. Admiral Naveed Ashraf, Pakistan's Chief of Naval Staff, lauded this as a move to maintain regional stability and solidify the bond between the two nations.
However, this military buildup is occurring against a backdrop of profound economic hardship. Last year's devastating floods, coupled with other factors, have slashed Pakistan's GDP growth projection from a hopeful 5% to a meager 0.29%. The national budget even reveals a 15.4% increase in defense spending, totaling 18000 crore Pak rupees, all while inflation soars and poverty grips the nation.
This economic turmoil has fueled public discontent, with reports of shortages in essential goods like food and medicine becoming commonplace in Pakistani media. Many citizens perceive the military as holding undue power, controlling a disproportionate share of national resources and operating vast revenue-generating enterprises. This sentiment is echoed in international discussions, such as those within the IMF, which have raised concerns about the skewed allocation of resources towards the military at the expense of civilian needs.
Further controversy has arisen from recent reports in the BBC and other outlets suggesting that, despite Pakistan's official neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, covert operations have been underway to supply arms to Ukraine. These reports claim that Pakistan, under pressure from the United States, engaged in secret deals that not only contradicted its stated neutrality but also reaped significant profits from arms sales.
Open-source information reveals that Pakistan's economic situation is indeed dire, with high inflation, declining remittances, and dwindling foreign exchange reserves. The World Bank has also expressed concerns about Pakistan's debt sustainability and the need for fiscal consolidation.
It is evident that Pakistan faces a complex and multifaceted challenge. Balancing military ambitions with economic stability is a difficult task, and the path forward is fraught with uncertainty.