Project-75I Faces Hurdles as Indian Navy's AIP Requirements Remain Unmet by Navantia and TKMS in Submarine Trials

The Indian Navy's ambitious Project-75I, aimed at acquiring six advanced diesel-electric submarines, has encountered significant roadblocks concerning the crucial Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems.

Trials conducted by the two leading contenders, Spain's Navantia and Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), have reportedly fallen short of the Navy's stringent requirements for operational readiness and scalability.

Project-75I seeks to bolster India's underwater capabilities with the procurement of six next-generation submarines equipped with advanced AIP technology. This technology is pivotal for extending a submarine's underwater endurance, significantly enhancing its stealth capabilities and operational effectiveness.

Navantia, partnering with Larsen & Toubro, presented its AIP solution based on a land-based prototype. While the demonstration showcased technological advancements, it failed to satisfy the Indian Navy's demand for sea-proven AIP technology.

The Navy emphasizes the critical need for operational trials under actual submarine conditions, recognizing that land-based tests cannot fully replicate the complex challenges of underwater operations.

TKMS, in collaboration with Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited, demonstrated its AIP system onboard a submarine. However, the showcased system was designed for smaller, 2000-ton submarines, whereas Project-75I mandates AIP capabilities for the larger 3000-ton U-214NG submarines on offer.

This discrepancy necessitates the development of a significantly larger and more powerful AIP system by TKMS to meet the Indian Navy's specifications, potentially leading to delays in the project timeline due to the required technical adjustments and subsequent testing.

The current situation leaves the Indian Navy at a critical juncture. Neither Navantia nor TKMS has fully met the Navy's stringent criteria for AIP technology in the context of Project-75I.

The trials have exposed a gap between the demonstrated capabilities and the Navy's expectations regarding operational readiness, scalability, and endurance under real-world conditions.

The Indian Navy's next steps remain to be determined. Potential options include requesting further demonstrations from both vendors, urging them to revise their systems to meet the specific requirements regarding size and underwater endurance, or potentially reopening the tender to other international players capable of developing or possessing the required AIP technology.

The success of Project-75I hinges on securing a suitable AIP system, underscoring the significance of these upcoming decisions for India's naval modernization efforts.

 

[Akshat]

The F35 has never been tested for high altitude operations, while Rafales, Tejas and Sukhoi's are perfectly suited for that. I think the F35 will have the same problems the Apache helicopter faced in high altitude.

And why would one even fly the F35 from high altitudes (by one, I mean Indian military)? India has bases in the plains which are under 150 km from the LAC. You won't have to operate them from the high altitude bases buddy. Even Rafale is posted at Ambala and Hashimara air bases.

 

[Akshat]

We have to be more practical. Suppose if we give order for MRFA this year, and if everything goes according to plan, still the first aircraft can be delivered only by 2031-32. Three to four years for setting up the assembly line and another two to three years for the first aircraft to roll out. Sukhoi is the only aircraft, where we are least dependent on any other country and immediate production can be started. So if we order 36 Rafales and 72 Sukhoi's, by 2031-32 we can expect complete 108 aircrafts or at near to it.

That's wrong. Practically, if we give orders for MRFA this year (31st December 2025 or earlier), then the first aircraft can be delivered on or before 31st December 2028 (assuming that the aircraft is Rafale). Indian made Rafales will start coming before 31st December 2030. As for Su30 itself, we are looking for quality planes, ain't we? And in a budget? Su30 doesn't fulfil either of the 2 requirements. And despite an order of 270, HAL only delivered 13 planes annually. And deliveries will start in 2028 as well, assuming no delays, which is never possible in case of HAL and Russia. So by 2031, you will have only about 40 Su30, not more than that.

 

[Akshat]

We will be installing our own AIP on our submarine during their refit and upgrade stage. Also we have a brilliant and vast number of anti submarine corvette, frigates and destroyers.

That's what DRDO has been promising since we signed the original deal for Scorpene in 2005 or so. 🤣🤣🤣

 

[Baiju Bhaskaran]

And why would one even fly the F35 from high altitudes (by one, I mean Indian military)? India has bases in the plains which are under 150 km from the LAC. You won't have to operate them from the high altitude bases buddy. Even Rafale is posted at Ambala and Hashimara air bases.

If any war happens with China, it will be at high altitudes places like Laddakh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh. The aircrafts will have to fly there. Although Rafales,Tejas, Sukhoi's are posted in the plains, they are very well tested to operate in full efficiency at high altitudes. F35 has never been tested for that. Don't forget about Apache helicopter's which totally failed in high altitude operations, while our own LCH and LUH smoothly operates under those conditions.

 

[Baiju Bhaskaran]

That's wrong. Practically, if we give orders for MRFA this year (31st December 2025 or earlier), then the first aircraft can be delivered on or before 31st December 2028 (assuming that the aircraft is Rafale). Indian made Rafales will start coming before 31st December 2030. As for Su30 itself, we are looking for quality planes, ain't we? And in a budget? Su30 doesn't fulfil either of the 2 requirements. And despite an order of 270, HAL only delivered 13 planes annually. And deliveries will start in 2028 as well, assuming no delays, which is never possible in case of HAL and Russia. So by 2031, you will have only about 40 Su30, not more than that.

Let us assume that your calculation is correct. If we go with Rafales and Sukhoi's, we will have 76 Aircrafts ( 36 Rafales and 40 Sukhoi's) by 2031. If we go through MRFA and if it is Rafales, we will have maximum 45 aircrafts and if any other manufacturer, then by 2031 maybe the first aircraft will roll out.

 

[Akshat]

If any war happens with China, it will be at high altitudes places like Laddakh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh. The aircrafts will have to fly there. Although Rafales,Tejas, Sukhoi's are posted in the plains, they are very well tested to operate in full efficiency at high altitudes. F35 has never been tested for that. Don't forget about Apache helicopter's which totally failed in high altitude operations, while our own LCH and LUH smoothly operates under those conditions.

Bro, all planes, by default, operate at far higher altitudes than those found at the battlefields of the Himalayas. What you test is if these planes can fly from the high altitudes with a high enough weight. But, as mentioned, you don't need that with the F35.

As for Apache, there is not a single report (official) which says that Apaches had those accidents due to the high altitude. Similarly, our LCH and LUH are not operational as of now, they are there just for tests at best. So they are not even being operated at the full spectrum.

 

[Akshat]

Let us assume that your calculation is correct. If we go with Rafales and Sukhoi's, we will have 76 Aircrafts ( 36 Rafales and 40 Sukhoi's) by 2031. If we go through MRFA and if it is Rafales, we will have maximum 45 aircrafts and if any other manufacturer, then by 2031 maybe the first aircraft will roll out.

But why is 2031 such a hard deadline? Is it enough to deliver the jets by 2031 and not 2034? Urgent enough to buy an overpriced and inferior jet just for some 30 extra planes that too for just a year or 2?

 

[Parthasarathi DasGupta]

Why do they need AIP submarines when miniature reactors are available? Nowadays, you can make micro nuclear reactors (20 KW or even less), which is sufficient to power smaller submarines like the Scorpene class. No need for diesel engines, no need for AIP! There are already eight or nine companies making micro reactors in the world. France can help (XAMR/DASSAULT subsidiary).

 

[PKPRS]

Indian Navy should order additional ten Scorpene Submarine instead of three . They should concentrate on indigenous P77 project.

They as good as useless if they doesn’t have AIP, also they are too small to carry heavy payload.

 

[PKPRS]

The F35 has never been tested for high altitude operations, while Rafales, Tejas and Sukhoi's are perfectly suited for that. I think the F35 will have the same problems the Apache helicopter faced in high altitude.

Rafael's max ceiling is only 52,000 feet while Tejas MK2 is 55,000 and Su-30’s is 57,000 feet., so which will be good for high altitude.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

MRFA is far from dead buddy. It is still an active project with likely approval for RFI coming this year.

Even if that happens, the first aircraft will get delivered after 2030. By then, China will be getting 2 types of 5th-gen fighters in large numbers, and even Pakistan will have 5th-gen fighters. China may even start getting 6th-gen fighters by then.

Rafales already have a very big backlog, so the max production rate we will be able to manage will be around 10, so it will take more than 10 years for us to get all Rafales delivered. That means after 2040. These numbers and timelines don't make sense to me.

 

[Akshay Bisht]

Well if USA is gonna interfere, they might interfere even with the Russian planes with sanctions too, can't they?

As for Dassault, I can pretty much bet that you won't be able to produce a single official statement from Dassault that says they can't take on any new orders. In fact, just last year their CEO said the exact opposite. He openly said that while they do have some challenges in ramping up, their production rate is good enough for new orders, let alone struggling with older orders. And this year, they have actually beaten their own projection. They have significant surplus production capacity already, and are set to ramp it up even further.

So if we do sign a deal today, we can get Rafales in just 3 years, or even lower if we use our heft as a buyer.

The USA can interfere everywhere they want to keep us back (LCA Mk2, AMCA, TEDBF...), but they aren't. And at the same time, they are allowing the EU and us to purchase Russian oil even after a lot of sanctions on Russian firms. These kinds of things make geopolitics unpredictable, especially during this government change in the USA.

As for Dassault, I said their production lines are full now; I didn't mention that they aren't taking any orders. But getting Rafales (30+) in just 3 years is just an absurd statement you are making. Even if Dassault somehow increased their production capacity today, 3 years is just a child's dream.

 

[Akshat]

The USA can interfere everywhere they want to keep us back (LCA Mk2, AMCA, TEDBF...), but they aren't. And at the same time, they are allowing the EU and us to purchase Russian oil even after a lot of sanctions on Russian firms. These kinds of things make geopolitics unpredictable, especially during this government change in the USA.

As for Dassault, I said their production lines are full now; I didn't mention that they aren't taking any orders. But getting Rafales (30+) in just 3 years is just an absurd statement you are making. Even if Dassault somehow increased their production capacity today, 3 years is just a child's dream.

Well that's the thing...if US sanctions are an issue, then we can't predict anything and thus, it can't be the basis of any presumptions or any orders or lack thereof.

Well as I said, they exceeded their own guidance numbers for this year. And these numbers, even without any increases, will let them achieve their targets till 2030. But they are further increasing them.

And I never said 30 planes in 3 years. Even Dassault never said that. I have always said that we can start getting the planes in 3 years, which is the statement made by Dassault. But yes, if they do manage to hit their production increase target by the end of this year, they will have more than 25 units over and above their current production targets over the next 2 years (that is, in 2026+2027 timeframe). So even by mistake your statement is not a child's dream but a real possibility if we use our bargaining power. French airforce is known to sacrifice their own orders for increasing exports. So getting 30 planes in 3 years, assuming order is placed by the end of this year, is not only possible but highly probable, considering that Dassault has more or less managed to always hit their targets, with maybe a few slippages here or there.

 

[Akshat]

Even if that happens, the first aircraft will get delivered after 2030. By then, China will be getting 2 types of 5th-gen fighters in large numbers, and even Pakistan will have 5th-gen fighters. China may even start getting 6th-gen fighters by then.

Rafales already have a very big backlog, so the max production rate we will be able to manage will be around 10, so it will take more than 10 years for us to get all Rafales delivered. That means after 2040. These numbers and timelines don't make sense to me.

Well do we have any options for F35? Because IAF itself had the option for both FGFA and MRFA and junked FGFA. So Russian fifth gen planes are surely inferior to MRFA planes and are not an option for us.

As for Rafale, bro, please update yourself. Assuming we sign the deal by the end of this year, which is highly optimistic, we can easily get the first planes before the end of 2028. And Rafale has managed to hit their production ramp up targets last year (2024). If they manage to do it again in 2025, then they will have some surplus capacity of 14 planes annually. From 2026 itself. They will have some surplus planes even in 2025, even if they manage the same overall numbers as they did in 2024. So assuming no other orders come and all surplus is diverted to us and we are ready to take the planes off the shelf, we can get all our 114 planes by 2032 or 2033. Assuming we sign the deal this year.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Well do we have any options for F35? Because IAF itself had the option for both FGFA and MRFA and junked FGFA. So Russian fifth gen planes are surely inferior to MRFA planes and are not an option for us.

As for Rafale, bro, please update yourself. Assuming we sign the deal by the end of this year, which is highly optimistic, we can easily get the first planes before the end of 2028. And Rafale has managed to hit their production ramp up targets last year (2024). If they manage to do it again in 2025, then they will have some surplus capacity of 14 planes annually. From 2026 itself. They will have some surplus planes even in 2025, even if they manage the same overall numbers as they did in 2024. So assuming no other orders come and all surplus is diverted to us and we are ready to take the planes off the shelf, we can get all our 114 planes by 2032 or 2033. Assuming we sign the deal this year.

You are being extremely optimistic with timelines without any reason. The French have not been able to meet their own projections for annual production numbers. When India starts building Rafales, we will still depend a lot on French suppliers for parts, and I am sure that they will not be able to meet that projected additional demand in a timely fashion. This means more delays.

 

[Akshat]

You are being extremely optimistic with timelines without any reason. The French have not been able to meet their own projections for annual production numbers. When India starts building Rafales, we will still depend a lot on French suppliers for parts, and I am sure that they will not be able to meet that projected additional demand in a timely fashion. This means more delays.

Why spread disinformation/misinformation bro? Read the latest numbers from the French. They have not only met their own annual production numbers, but exceeded them. Yes, exceeded them by 5% (though that only amounts to 1 extra plane over the year). As for suppliers, France component manufacturing is already exceeding overall assembly by some 80%. So if a new line is created in India, they can start assembling right off the bat without even production increases. Talk about real numbers buddy, not your imagination.

 

[Enforcer]

Because we can't even make 4.5 gen planes on our own as of now, thanks to HAL and DRDO?

Because most of the world, including our adversaries, are still buying far more 4th gen planes than 5th gen planes?

Because F35 is not even on offer, let alone with any ToT or local manufacturing or no strings attached?

China is only building more 5th gen. Chinese 4th gen are mostly for exports. Pakistan is also looking into J35. F35 will be on offer very shortly. ToT will not be provided by pretty much anyone so its best to forget that.

 

[Sandeep]

That's what DRDO has been promising since we signed the original deal for Scorpene in 2005 or so. 🤣🤣🤣

Yes well they have now developed the AIP module and will now install it on the submarines when they go for a refit or upgrade but it’s better late than never. Also it’s very important that we have developed it and can now use it on our future 12 indigenous submarines that we are designing and will soon be approved.