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Recent political developments in Bangladesh, including the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the rise of radical Islamist groups, have raised alarms over the country's long-held expansionist ambitions. The newly empowered groups have openly expressed their desire to establish a "Greater Bangladesh", encompassing parts of India's northeastern region.
Although Bangladesh currently lacks the military capacity to directly invade India, its population size – exceeding 171.2 million – significantly surpasses that of the entire northeastern region, creating a potential demographic threat. The proposed "Greater Bangladesh" would incorporate a significant portion of India, including West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand, Sikkim, and all seven northeastern states.
This ambition is fueled by decades of infiltration from Bangladesh into India. The porous border and economic disparities have facilitated the influx of millions of Bangladeshis, many illegally. Past secular Indian policies inadvertently encouraged this migration.
Data from 1992, provided by then West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu, revealed that the Border Security Force (BSF) had expelled over 235,000 Bangladeshis between 1977 and 1992, the majority being Muslims seeking economic opportunities.
The issue transcends mere migration; it's about demographic shifts impacting India's border states. Illegal immigrants have found political and economic leverage, often aided by parties seeking to expand their vote base.
The combination of Islamist forces in Bangladesh and historical infiltration presents a serious challenge to India's internal security. While a 'Greater Bangladesh' may seem militarily implausible, it serves as a potent ideological tool for regional radicals. Bangladesh's population density and shared borders create fertile ground for demographic and cultural influence in Indian border states.
The northeastern states, already grappling with insurgencies, ethnic tensions, and underdevelopment, face additional pressures if Bangladesh's rhetoric gains momentum. States like Assam and Tripura have already witnessed significant demographic shifts and resulting tensions due to illegal immigration.
Moreover, Bangladesh's ambitions could have broader regional ramifications. West Bengal, Bihar, and Odisha are critical to India's economic and strategic security, with Kolkata serving as a major port and the northeast as a gateway to Southeast Asia. Any destabilization could have severe consequences.
While Bangladesh may lack the military means for physical expansion, the demographic pressure it can exert on India is real and alarming. The Islamist takeover and the revival of the 'Greater Bangladesh' idea should serve as a wake-up call for India. It's imperative to strengthen border security, curb illegal immigration, and engage diplomatically with Bangladesh to prevent these ambitions from escalating. Simultaneously, regional cooperation must be fortified to ensure radical ideologies do not destabilize South Asia's delicate balance.