Recent India-US Trade Deal May Revive Interim F-35 Bid for IAF, But Su-57 Retains Edge via Major ToT and Source Code Access

A major diplomatic breakthrough has reshaped the economic landscape between the United States and India, potentially altering the course of the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) future fighter jet procurement.

Following months of negotiations personally led by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the two nations have announced a comprehensive trade agreement that reduces US tariffs on Indian goods from 25% (+25%) to 18%.

In return, India has committed to increasing energy imports from the US, signalling a deeper alignment between the world's two largest democracies.

This economic thaw has immediately reignited speculation regarding defence cooperation. While the trade deal focuses on tariffs and energy, military analysts believe the renewed goodwill may resurrect a dormant proposal from early 2025: the sale of the F-35 Lightning II to India.

The Return of the F-35 Option?​

During a high-level meeting at the White House last year, President Trump informally proposed supplying India with the F-35, the premier American fifth-generation stealth fighter.

At the time, New Delhi’s response was tepid. The government prioritised the "Make in India" initiative, favouring indigenous production over off-the-shelf imports.

Additionally, unresolved tariff disputes and India's historic defence reliance on Russia created a diplomatic cooling effect.

With trade tensions now eased, the F-35 is back in the conversation. The aircraft offers the IAF unmatched advantages in stealth, sensor fusion, and network-centric warfare—capabilities already proven by allied air forces globally.

Acquiring the F-35 would allow the IAF to seamlessly integrate with US and NATO forces, offering a technological leap for operations in contested airspace.

However, significant hurdles remain. The F-35 comes with a high price tag (estimated between $80 million and $110 million per unit) and strict US export controls.

Historically, Washington has been reluctant to share deep technical know-how or allow integration with non-NATO weaponry, a critical requirement for India’s diverse arsenal which includes French, Russian, and indigenous platforms.

The Su-57E: Strategic Sovereignty and Source Code​

While the F-35 offers a "plug-and-play" solution, Russia’s Su-57E (the export variant of the Su-57 Felon) is reportedly leading the race due to its alignment with India’s strategic autonomy.

Sources indicate that negotiations between New Delhi and Moscow have reached a "deep technical stage."

Unlike the US "black box" approach, Russia is reportedly offering extensive Transfer of Technology (ToT).

Key aspects of the proposed Su-57 deal include:

• Source Code Access: A critical differentiator allowing India to independently upgrade the aircraft’s software and integrate indigenous weapons without seeking foreign permission.
• Local Production: Mirroring the successful Su-30MKI model, the deal envisages initial imports followed by licensed manufacturing at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).
• Cost Effectiveness: With a unit cost significantly lower than the F-35 (estimated around $40-$50 million), the Su-57 offers a more budget-friendly route to expanding squadron numbers.

The Su-57 is a twin-engine heavy fighter emphasizing speed, range, and payload, making it a natural successor to the Su-30MKI for air dominance roles.

However, critics point to Russia's slower production rates and the fact that the Su-57’s stealth features are generally considered less advanced than those of the F-35.

Bridging the Gap to AMCA​

The urgency for these discussions stems from the IAF’s critical need to bridge a capability gap.

India’s indigenous fifth-generation programme, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), is on track but not expected to mature until the mid-2030s.

To counter the rapidly modernising air power of regional rivals, the IAF requires 2-3 squadrons of fifth-generation fighters in the interim.

The choice now facing India is stark. The F-35 offers superior stealth and immediate access to a global ecosystem but comes with high costs and "technological lock-in."

The Su-57 offers sovereignty, deep industrial benefits, and lower costs, but ties India further to the Russian defence industrial base.

As high-level talks continue, the path forward will likely depend on whether the US is willing to sweeten the F-35 offer with genuine technology sharing, or if India decides that control over its own source code is the ultimate priority for national defence.

 

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[Rishi]

Don't ever trust usa

 

[atg]

Don't ever trust usa

And russia is better? Day by day becoming a Chinese vessel state?

We need equipment to defend ourselves now not 25 years from now.

 

[Rishi]

And russia is better? Day by day becoming a Chinese vessel state?

We need equipment to defend ourselves now not 25 years from now.

So usa is ok how it will is fine? Go check the Canada how f35 has become hectic for them..... And f35 data will go to usa. If we have f35 then usa will tell us not to used it against Pakistan. and you are saying usa is ok

 

[Vivek_Singh]

F35 is a single engine fighter jet, not sure if IAF will show any interest.
IAFs priority for the heavy and stealth fighters is twin engine and twin seater jets. F35 wont fit in that scheme of things.
Secondly, F35 has seen tremendous amount of accidents in its short lifespan. Has heavy maintenance cycle and the RAM coating is very expensive to maintain.

 

[Rishi]

F35 is a single engine fighter jet, not sure if IAF will show any interest.
IAFs priority for the heavy and stealth fighters is twin engine and twin seater jets. F35 wont fit in that scheme of things.
Secondly, F35 has seen tremendous amount of accidents in its short lifespan. Has heavy maintenance cycle and the RAM coating is very expensive to maintain.

I will be very happy if IAF does not go for f35.. But in the end anything can happen

 

[atg]

So usa is ok how it will is fine? Go check the Canada how f35 has become hectic for them..... And f35 data will go to usa. If we have f35 then usa will tell us not to used it against Pakistan. and you are saying usa is ok

First of all, the planes shouldn't even be compared. One is a real stealth aircraft and one absolutely isn't (confirmed by our own airforce) that's why we pulled out in the first place. If it was half as competent as the Russian say it is they would have mass produced and incorporated it into their own airforce against Ukraine, But they don't. So this article doesn't even make sense.

Second you think russia is the same USSR reliable partner which will help against China? Its become so much more dependent on the Chinese that they themselves can't produce defence equipment without their help. Having to import “duel use“ technologies. Russia is walking the path towards becoming a Chinese vessel state and the longer we hook our ship to it the deeper we sink. All deals should have technology transfer so we can maintain and upgrade as we see fit otherwise they aren't worth it.

If we need a real stealth jet we have the options of f35 in the short term, AMCA or joining co-devlopment with some eu countries and their sixth gen programs. These are our realistic options and 2 of them won't be there for the next 15 years or more.

If we NEED the fifth gen aircraft there is only one place we can get it in the short term. Are there strings attached? Yes. Is there a chance they can halt spare parts supply? Yes. Is it a dependency? Yes. Do we have any other choice? No.

 

[Vivek_Singh]

I will be very happy if IAF does not go for f35.. But in the end anything can happen

My gut feeling still says that IAF wont go for F35.
Its extremely tough to maintain, and it will eat significant % of Airforce budget.

Su57, IAF has already confirmed that they're not looking at it from stealth perspective, but rather from long range standoff strikes...which we can achieve by integrating our Brahmos/Astra/Rudram missiles, or even integrate Russian R37 BVRs.

Only issue is Su57 isnt yet flying with a 5th gen engine, so its still just an advanced version of Su30MKI. Plus Russian MIC is really slow in manufacture of Su57 due to war and hence they're looking for India to partner again.

 

[Muks]

Let's put the F-35 pitch into perspective. The initial flyaway cost is 80-100 million depending on variant and numbers. However, when one adds training, infra, weapons etc over a period of time, it will nudge $ 250 million. Maintaining its stealth coatings require AC hangars, the coating has to be periodically redone etc. When one looks at the life cycle cost for 20-25 years the cost would be upwards of half a billion per ac.

Second, freedom of action. Any US deal for any offensive weapon system, is a virtual straight jacket. They will access all data at will and restrict usage at will. For people saying others are becoming a vassal state of so and, what does that make us?? If tomorrow, US-China become bumchums, does anyone believe they will let us use the F-35 against China??

Third, there will be absolutely no modifications or integration of any indigenous or third party systems with the US, even if India is willing to pay. At least the French and Russians allow that if the money is right.

Lastly, this stupidity about all round stealth vs limited stealth. What good is rearward stealth, when it is only useful when you are running away from the threat. What an ac needs is a good set of legs. The Su-57 already has that and will get better with the Izdeliye-30. What you need is enough low observability to get to one's weapon release point, launch the weapon without interference. In modern combat, no ac ( not even the F-22 Raptor) hangs around after weapon launch.

India will never be able to afford too many imported fifth Gen jets. That can only happen with the AMCA. Lastly, the waiting list for the F-35, is light years long. For the Su-57 is almost none.