Retired Air Marshal Slams India's Predator Drones Acquisition as "Costly Toys" Vulnerable to Chinese and Pakistani Defenses

Retired Air Marshal Dilip Kumar Patnaik has launched a scathing critique of India's acquisition of Predator Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), calling them "costly toys" that lack the necessary capabilities for operating in contested airspace.

His comments, made during a candid interview with ANI, raise serious concerns about the strategic and tactical utility of these drones in the context of India's regional security challenges.

Patnaik, a decorated officer with extensive experience in military operations, argues that Predator UAVs are ill-suited for environments where adversaries like China and Pakistan possess robust air defence capabilities.

"These drones can only be used effectively in uncontested airspace," he stated, implying their vulnerability in scenarios where enemy air defence systems are active.

He went on to warn that "they will be picked up and taken down by our neighbours," emphasizing the risk of these expensive assets becoming easy targets for enemy forces.

Patnaik also questioned the cost-effectiveness of the deal, suggesting that the substantial investment in Predators could be better utilized in acquiring more agile and cost-effective drone technologies.

As an alternative, he proposed adopting swarm drone technology, which he believes offers a higher survivability rate in contested environments due to their numbers, affordability, and decentralized operational nature.

"For the same amount of money, we could have bought swarm drones that would give us a much better chance in hostile skies," Patnaik asserted, highlighting their potential to overwhelm enemy defences through coordinated action and sheer numbers.

This critique from a seasoned military leader brings into focus a crucial debate regarding India's drone strategy. While Predator UAVs offer certain advantages in intelligence gathering and surveillance, their limitations in contested airspace raise questions about their suitability for India's defence needs, especially given the escalating regional tensions and the increasing sophistication of adversary air defence systems.

 

[P2S2]

Listen to him keep them as a fall back platform while upscaling them in the meantime. Allocate much more money than previously for in house upgrading of it's abilities. Learn how not to waste resources on developing such narrow focused Indian platforms. There is a big business perspective and a survival difference.

 

[Gentleman]

Any cheap alternative considering the same features

 

[sanket]

Any cheap alternative considering the same features

Archer-NG. Second, for a similar amount, an Su-57-like platform could have been purchased with at least 2 squadrons, which would have been handy with a combo of Okhotnik drones.

 

[मित्र]

Atleast someone talking sense. Whats happening in red sea was a red sign for India, still we went ahead with the deal.

 

[L.T.V.Rajesh]

I hope India should buy Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles with the Su-57 from Russia.

 

[The Presence]

Losing a Predator is much better than losing a P-8I, which was used in its place before.

Plus Predator - The Sky Guardian variant - isn't your regular drone. It carries sophisticated pods which can do SIGINT/COMINT much farther away from the range of enemy AD.

 

[SR]

Houthis with basic defences shot down 13 such mq9 drones
We are buying 31 drones for 3.5 billion dollars

 

[Steel Mathi]

Very good aircraft for naval operations. But we don't need such an expensive aircraft to monitor the land border between Pakistan and China. They will easily shoot this down. We can use indigenous Drone or Israel Drone for this operation.

All 31 aircraft can be delivered to the Navy. The operating cost of the Poisden P8i aircraft will be significantly reduced.

 

[op gupta]

The debate regarding the cost of the Predator drone is raging on social media for quite some time, particularly by so-called distinguished former military officers. The same thing happened after the costly Rafale deal, the same thing will happen if GTRE is successful in building a 90kN Kaveri engine, and the same thing will happen if an F-35 deal finally happens. The Indian defence community is a very "big joke".

 

[obiwankenubi jedi]

We can't get our TAPAS drone ready for some reason, and we seem to need American tech to make it battle-ready.

This must be a way to understand how to make our own drones by looking at how the MQ-9 Predator is built by General Atomics.

The US won't sell modern Gray Eagle or Sparrow Hawk drones to India yet.

So this is the best possible option for the armed forces at the moment.

The other option is to build our own, which we have been trying for decades now, starting with Rustom, TAPAS, Archer, and Archer 2.

But we can't make our armed forces buy them, while our drones conveniently "crash" or "underperform" when it matters most.

It's a systemic problem. Only when you let them buy expensive foreign arms do our armed forces accept our sabotaged domestic arms.

The deal has nothing to do with whether it's economically viable or technically capable of surviving and fighting during wartime in contested airspace.

Many parties with vested interests depend on the success of the deal rather than the effectiveness, economic viability, and capability of the weapon.

 

[The Presence]

Very good aircraft for naval operations. But we don't need such an expensive aircraft to monitor the land border between Pakistan and China. They will easily shoot this down. We can use indigenous Drone or Israel Drone for this operation.

All 31 aircraft can be delivered to the Navy. The operating cost of the Poisden P8i aircraft will be significantly reduced.

The IAF & IA came begging to the Indian Navy for their P-8I after the Galwan clashes for gathering intelligence.

Since they have the Predator-B this time around, they won't be incurring a tremendous flight hour cost and wasting precious airframe life.

 

[Mango_Indian]

All retired IAF, IA top brass usually criticize imports and state we have to develop internal capabilities.

All serving IAF, IA top brass are bending over backwards to import platforms. And they do not lose any opportunity to shame HAL, DRDO, etc.

Why ?

 

[Sandeep]

The USA drone deal was very expensive but it was a necessity. We needed a large number of drones to conduct surveillance and ISTAR, EW, SIGINT, SATCOM etc missions along the borders. Also these drones can be armed and can safely fire weapons from within our borders in safety. Also we know that drones are vulnerable in any contested air space so we wouldn’t be using them in such a scenario.

 

[Vicky]

Houthis with basic defences shot down 13 such mq9 drones
We are buying 31 drones for 3.5 billion dollars

They don't have basic defences. Just check them again!

 

[Akshat]

Archer-NG. Second, for a similar amount, an Su-57-like platform could have been purchased with at least 2 squadrons, which would have been handy with a combo of Okhotnik drones.

Lol...even barebones Su30 MKI without any AESA radar or weapons or ToT costs us 120 million USD now. So nopes.

As for Archer NG, it's not even close to the same quality. In fact, it's non existent for purchase options.

 

[Akshat]

I hope India should buy Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missiles and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles with the Su-57 from Russia.

India isn't falling for Russian lies anymore buddy. Even Russia is cutting down on it's orders for Su57 drastically and you want us to induct that junk? No thanks bro.

 

[Kira]

He has a point; it's a little sketchy investment on the part of the IAF and IN to acquire these drones due to significant SAM threats in the region, but it was also vital that the IN gets them in numbers to complement the P-8I fleet.

 

[Arin Kumar]

Even during peace times these Predator drones can be highly effective for creating accurate topographical mapping of the border regions and other Naxal infested regions of India. These drones cam be equipped with SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) cameras which will help in creating 3D maps of terrains - these maps will be extremely beneficial during times of conflict in terms of planning an attack or planning a defence to an attack from China or Pakistan or any other country.

Besides once our HAL-DRDO and private sector guys get to see the Predator drones in action - they will be able to understand the modern benchmarks of excellence.

So these drones are extremely beneficial and their necessity cannot be emphasized more for the Indian Security and Intelligence establishment.

 

[Arin Kumar]

Archer-NG. Second, for a similar amount, an Su-57-like platform could have been purchased with at least 2 squadrons, which would have been handy with a combo of Okhotnik drones.

Only thing common between a Predator drone and and Archer NG is both can fly in the sky (though not for the same amount of time). Archer NG flies at most for 4 Hours. A predator flies >24 hours with full ISR payload.

 

[A.K.Koul]

Very good suggestion by Air Marshal Patnaik sir. India at present needs swarm drones which have higher survival rates in hostile skies at a lower cost than high-priced Predator UAVs. Also, swarm drones have shown their effectiveness in Middle East wars.

 

[Dredd]

Atleast someone talking sense. Whats happening in red sea was a red sign for India, still we went ahead with the deal.

these drones will not be used for any strike operation over pakistan or china, the primary role is surveillance with optional strike in protected or safe air space..