In early 2026, a long-simmering rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over Yemen has escalated into an unprecedented public military and diplomatic confrontation.
While both nations entered the Yemen conflict in 2015 as allies against the Houthi movement, their strategic objectives have diverged, leading to open hostility centered on the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC).
Key Events of the 2025–2026 Crisis:
1. STC Territorial Expansion: In December 2025, the STC launched a major offensive, seizing control of the resource-rich Hadramout and Al-Mahra provinces. Saudi Arabia viewed this as a direct threat to its national security, as these provinces border the Kingdom.
2. Saudi Airstrikes on STC: On December 30, 2025, the Saudi-led coalition bombed the port city of Mukalla, targeting what it claimed were weapons shipments from the UAE intended for the STC. Further Saudi strikes on January 2, 2026, reportedly killed 20 STC fighters at military bases in the south.
3. UAE Military Withdrawal: Following the December 30 strikes, the UAE announced the complete withdrawal of its remaining "counterterrorism" forces from Yemen, a move finalized by January 3, 2026.
4. STC Independence Bid: On January 2, 2026, the STC announced a two-year transition period leading to a referendum on independence for South Yemen, further challenging the Saudi-backed unity of the country.
Core Points of Contention:
1. Conflicting Endgames: Saudi Arabia prioritizes a unified Yemen governed by the internationally recognized Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to ensure border security. The UAE has cultivated the STC as a local partner to secure strategic ports, shipping lanes, and influence in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
2. Accusations of Sabotage: Saudi Arabia and the PLC have accused the UAE of pressuring the STC to "rebel" and "undermine the state". The UAE has denied these claims, asserting its shipments contained no weapons.
3. Strategic Assets: The fight for Hadramout is central due to its oil and gas reserves and its status as a vital corridor for Saudi border security and trade.
4. Diplomatic Fallout: In early January 2026, the PLC canceled its defense treaty with the UAE and ordered all Emirati forces to leave. Concurrently, air traffic at Aden International Airport was halted due to a dispute over new flight restrictions between Aden and the UAE.
Regional Impact:
1. Houthi Advantage: Analysts note that the internal fracturing of the anti-Houthi coalition significantly strengthens the Houthi movement's position both militarily and diplomatically.
2. GCC Stability: This rift marks the most significant split between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in decades, echoing the tensions of the 2017 Qatar diplomatic crisis and threatening the broader Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) cohesion.
