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In a frank evaluation that may prompt serious discussions within the Indian military establishment, Jack Watling, a leading expert on land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), has advised India to urgently re-evaluate the combat resilience of the Russian S-400 air defence system.
His comments come amidst growing evidence from the Ukraine conflict regarding the system's performance against modern, high-intensity aerial threats.
Speaking to The Hindu, Watling, who has extensive experience advising Ukrainian forces and briefing NATO allies, stopped short of suggesting India should cancel its existing contracts with Russia.
However, he emphasized that the S-400’s operational record in Ukraine has exposed significant weaknesses that marketing claims can no longer hide.
Contrasting Experiences: Operation Sindoor vs. Ukraine
Watling acknowledged that the S-400 has served India well during limited engagements, specifically referencing its deployment during "Operation Sindoor."During this operation—launched in response to the Pahalgam terror attack in 2025—the system reportedly provided a credible deterrent against Pakistani aerial assets.
However, Watling drew a sharp distinction between that experience and the full-scale war in Ukraine.
"While the S-400 has shown it can engage high-value targets from a distance, the conflict in Ukraine has subjected it to sustained suppression campaigns," he stated.
He noted that in an environment saturated with decoys, loitering munitions, and electronic warfare, several Russian S-400 battalions have suffered rapid losses of critical launchers and radars.
The Drone Threat and Supply Chain Risks
The core of the problem, according to the RUSI expert, is not necessarily the quality of Russian engineering, but a fundamental shift in how wars are fought.The S-400 was built to counter traditional aircraft and missiles, not the swarms of cheap, expendable drones that now dominate the battlefield.
Watling pointed to specific incidents, such as the drone strikes in Crimea in late 2025, where S-400 batteries were overwhelmed and destroyed by relatively inexpensive unmanned systems.
Adding to these concerns is new data from open-source intelligence and recent RUSI reports highlighting industrial vulnerabilities. Russian production of advanced air defence radars relies heavily on foreign components, including microchips from the West and beryllium oxide ceramics from Kazakhstan.
Sanctions and supply chain disruptions have raised questions about Russia's ability to maintain and upgrade these complex systems over the long term.
A Call for a Layered Defence Strategy
Watling advised India to adopt a pragmatic approach rather than an ideological one. He cautioned against accepting Russian assurances of "upgrades" at face value, noting that many proposed fixes—such as improved anti-jamming and faster mobility—are still being tested."I am not suggesting India tears up its contracts," Watling clarified. "Russia remains a key partner willing to transfer technology. But resilience in modern warfare demands diversity."
He recommended that India build a "layered" air defence network that complements the long-range capabilities of the S-400 with highly mobile, shorter-range systems specifically designed to hunt drones and cruise missiles.
Conclusion
The expert concluded with a warning applicable to all nations modernising their military: no single weapon system is a "silver bullet."As the war in Ukraine demonstrates, the only way to ensure airspace security is to constantly test assumptions against the harsh realities of the modern battlefield—evidence that is currently being written in real-time in Eastern Europe.
