Opinion Russia's Stalled Arms Sales: Ukraine War Scares Off India, a Top Buyer

Forget those stories about invincible Russian tanks and missiles! The Ukraine war has shown the world that Russia's weapons don't always live up to the hype, and that's causing major problems for Moscow. India, the world's biggest arms importer and Russia's top customer, is hitting the brakes on buying Russian gear in a big way.

Note this: India has spent a whopping $60 billion on Russian tanks, jets, you name it – over the last couple of decades. Now, experts are saying that Russia's struggling to keep up with the demand, and questions about their weapons' quality are swirling. The result? It looks like big changes are ahead for India's massive $100 billion weapons shopping spree.

Why India's Saying "Thanks, But No Thanks" to Russia​

So, why the sudden shift? Here's what insiders are saying:

• Ukraine's Surprising Fight: India, like everyone else, was shocked by how poorly some Russian equipment performed in Ukraine. Suddenly those Russian weapons don't look so invincible anymore.
• Can't Get What They Need: Russia's arms factories are swamped trying to make weapons for its own troops in Ukraine, leaving India waiting in line. Plus, sanctions make it touchy for India to buy anything Russian.
• Time to Make, Not Buy: India's had its eye on building up its own defence industry for a while. The Ukraine mess just makes that goal seem more urgent.
• Keeping America Happy: India's been trying to cozy up to the U.S. lately, and buying loads of Russian weapons isn't exactly a great way to do that.

So, Who's In Line to Land These Big Sales?​

India's got the cash... and other arms makers are ready to pounce. Here's the new pecking order:

• Vive la France! France is stepping into Russia's old shoes. India already bought fancy Rafale jets from them and could buy much more. France seems super willing to share tech and build stuff together with India.
• The Americans Are Trying... They're promising cool engine tech for India's jets, but there's still old baggage between the two countries. Can America build enough trust?
• Don't Count Out Others: Israel, South Korea, even Germany could get some of India's business.

Russia is Not Totally Out​

Here's the thing, India's got a ton of old Russian stuff. They're not going to ditch it all overnight. And, geopolitics is messy – India doesn't want to make enemies by totally dumping Moscow as China gets closer to Russia.

Bottom Line​

Ukraine's fight for survival has totally reshuffled how India buys weapons. That's bad news for Russia, which desperately needs the business, and could be a win for other arms-making nations.

 

[Kira]

Not surprising given the sheer cost of this lease in addition to the states policy of diversification promoted by MoD,which will likely mean inclusion of France at the cost of Russia when it concerns future Indian SSNs.

 

[Anant]

I said the lease would not materialise months ago. The simple fact of the matter is that Russia doesn't have spare SSNs to lease. More than half of the Akula-class (well, what remains of it) is stuck in long-term modernisation, and it is speculated one or two boats may never leave the yard again.

In such a scenario, they only have 4 Akula-class boats still in service. They aren't leasing those out, especially not after their experience with leasing the Nerpa.

When we leased the Nerpa, also known as the Chakra-II, the lease amount essentially went into completing the submarine for Russia, as construction had stopped after the USSR's collapse. Russia leased the boat in the hopes that they would get a good SSN to operate a decade later. Of course, thanks to the twin accidents in 2008 and 2017, what Russia got was a SSN that was not worth repairing, and Nerpa is now floating around in reserve. They don't have more unfinished Akulas that can be completed.

It is very likely the money we had already paid here was simply diverted to the S-400's payments.

 

[Superpower Bharat]

Good, we can manufacture an vikrant class aircraft carriers with that money

 

[Abhijeet Dey]

Good, we can manufacture an vikrant class aircraft carriers with that money

Better to invest money in Project 75 Alpha.

 

[GMR]

Good, we can manufacture an vikrant class aircraft carriers with that money

Need of the hr. Is underwater capability, in which India is lagging now.. AC has been agreed & will subsequently happen.

 

[desigandu]

I said the lease would not materialise months ago. The simple fact of the matter is that Russia doesn't have spare SSNs to lease. More than half of the Akula-class (well, what remains of it) is stuck in long-term modernisation, and it is speculated one or two boats may never leave the yard again.

In such a scenario, they only have 4 Akula-class boats still in service. They aren't leasing those out, especially not after their experience with leasing the Nerpa.

When we leased the Nerpa, also known as the Chakra-II, the lease amount essentially went into completing the submarine for Russia, as construction had stopped after the USSR's collapse. Russia leased the boat in the hopes that they would get a good SSN to operate a decade later. Of course, thanks to the twin accidents in 2008 and 2017, what Russia got was a SSN that was not worth repairing, and Nerpa is now floating around in reserve. They don't have more unfinished Akulas that can be completed.

It is very likely the money we had already paid here was simply diverted to the S-400's payments.

In a way good, I would say if we can accelerate Project Alpha and at least get the 1st boat starting sea trials by 2031-2032..

 

[Pink Panther]

Not surprising given the sheer cost of this lease in addition to the states policy of diversification promoted by MoD,which will likely mean inclusion of France at the cost of Russia when it concerns future Indian SSNs.

If Defence.in says we are likely not getting, it means we are getting soon, like AK-203 article that came in Feb 2024, one of the ordinance factories already started producing them, may be the submarine already left Russia and on it’s way to India.

 

[Pink Panther]

In a way good, I would say if we can accelerate Project Alpha and at least get the 1st boat starting sea trials by 2031-2032..

2041-2942 precisely.

 

[Pink Panther]

Good, we can manufacture an vikrant class aircraft carriers with that money

and be a sitting duck without protection from nuclear submarines.

 

[shivkumar sinha]

I personally dislike Indian dependence on Russia for SSN but sensing the indefinite delay in our indigenous SSN program,we can't get first SSN before 2035 . Hence , even if acquisitions of Russian SSN on lease is delayed for 2-3 years, India must acquire this important capabilities. Bedi is a big lier . Any report linked to him is highly unreliable.

 

[Sandeep]

India is definitely going to lease another akula submarine in 2019 for the next decade because it needs a larger and more capable submarine which can hold more weapons. This will give us enough time for India to develop and construct its own indigenous P75 Alpha attack submarine and induct more Arihant ballistic submarine with more nuclear weapons with a longer range and torpedos. After that we won't lease anymore nuclear submarine from Russia and we will be looking to develop a similar larger S5 nuclear submarine to hold more indigenous nuclear missiles.

 

[beencensured]

I said the lease would not materialise months ago. The simple fact of the matter is that Russia doesn't have spare SSNs to lease. More than half of the Akula-class (well, what remains of it) is stuck in long-term modernisation, and it is speculated one or two boats may never leave the yard again.

In such a scenario, they only have 4 Akula-class boats still in service. They aren't leasing those out, especially not after their experience with leasing the Nerpa.

When we leased the Nerpa, also known as the Chakra-II, the lease amount essentially went into completing the submarine for Russia, as construction had stopped after the USSR's collapse. Russia leased the boat in the hopes that they would get a good SSN to operate a decade later. Of course, thanks to the twin accidents in 2008 and 2017, what Russia got was a SSN that was not worth repairing, and Nerpa is now floating around in reserve. They don't have more unfinished Akulas that can be completed.

It is very likely the money we had already paid here was simply diverted to the S-400's payments.

Big joker, and shameless person. First the Charka II had its share of accidents before Indian lease. You cannot wait more then fifteen years after mothballing to complete a sub it will have defects. .

An accident occurred aboard K-152 Nerpa at 8:30 PM local time on 8 November 2008,[26] during an underwater test run in the Pacific Ocean.[27] A total of 208 people – 81 military personnel and 127 civilians – were on board at the time of the accident.[5] At least 20 people were killed by asphyxiation[28] and at least 21 more were injured,[29] making it the worst Russian submarine disaster since Kursk sank in 2000.[30][31] Three of the dead were military personnel and the rest were civilians from the Vostok, Zvezda, Era and Amur shipbuilding yards who were members of the acceptance team.[32]

 

[Anant]

Big joker, and shameless person. First the Charka II had its share of accidents before Indian lease. You cannot wait more then fifteen years after mothballing to complete a sub it will have defects. .

Resorting to insults again, are we? Regardless, here goes:

The Nerpa would not have been completed had it not been for India agreeing to lease the submarine. After laying incomplete from 1993 to 2004, the lease agreement was reached, and the submarine would be delivered to India in 2007-08. Delays meant sea trials only began in 2008, at which point the accident you mentioned occurred. After fairly extensive repairs, the ship was commissioned into the Russian Navy in 2009, conducted user trials, and the training for an Indian crew began in 2010, with the submarine being handed over in 2012.

After that and the 2017 accident near Visakhapatnam, the submarine was repaired, but (and this was reported by Russian media citing sources within their Navy wanting to be remain anonymous as well as by NDTV), the submarine had proven to be increasingly difficult to maintain due to poor construction, maintenance challenges, and an increasingly unreliable powerplant.

The fact remains that even after Russia received the submarine, they decided to give her an extended overhaul that extended into early 2023, and was aimed at fixing the problems the Nerpa had seen over the last decade or so. Regardless, in 2023, they wrote off the submarine since it was, in effect, unfixable, and Nerpa is now being scavenged for whatever parts are usable before she is scrapped.

That said, I have only stated that these accidents, coupled with issues in the submarine itself, are the reason why the submarine was returned early, not recommissioned by Russia, and why Chakra-III will almost certainly not happen. Do you actually have a counter to either of those, or are you just randomly throwing insults around?

 

[Anant]

In a way good, I would say if we can accelerate Project Alpha and at least get the 1st boat starting sea trials by 2031-2032..

Not happening, Sir. As it is, P-75A ships won't start construction until 2027-28 at the earliest, which means the earliest date for us to get the submarines would be the late 2030s, if not 2040.

 

[Anant]

I personally dislike Indian dependence on Russia for SSN but sensing the indefinite delay in our indigenous SSN program,we can't get first SSN before 2035 . Hence , even if acquisitions of Russian SSN on lease is delayed for 2-3 years, India must acquire this important capabilities. Bedi is a big lier . Any report linked to him is highly unreliable.

Don't trust him, then. However, look at the data. Russia has a grand total of 9 Akula-class submarines, of which 5 are in long-term modernisation. Considering how long 2 of them have been going, they are either rebuilding the submarines very extensively, or they are just stuck.

That leaves them with 4 (for now) to 6 (in the medium-term) SSNs. These are still used as hunter-killer boats, and with most of the Oscar-class SSGNs (which also function as hunter-killers occasionally) also either in modernisation or awaiting modernisation, and with the Yasen-class facing delays, any submarine being leased by Russia would quite possibly mean a compromise in Russian capabilities, which they really would not countenance.

 

[Anant]

India is definitely going to lease another akula submarine in 2019 for the next decade because it needs a larger and more capable submarine which can hold more weapons. This will give us enough time for India to develop and construct its own indigenous P75 Alpha attack submarine and induct more Arihant ballistic submarine with more nuclear weapons with a longer range and torpedos. After that we won't lease anymore nuclear submarine from Russia and we will be looking to develop a similar larger S5 nuclear submarine to hold more indigenous nuclear missiles.

Hold on. Let me put some facts here. A SSN and a SSBN are fundamentally different in their role. You can't substitute a SSN to do what a SSBN does or (generally) vice versa.

That said, even Chakra-III is highly unlikely, for the simple fact that Russia doesn't have sufficient numbers of SSNs and SSGNs. Of their 9 Akula-class boats, 5 are in long-term modernisation, of which 2 may never emerge, considering just how long they have been in dock. Of the 7 Oscar-class SSGNs, 3 are in modernisation (2 of them having been in dock for 4 and 8 years respectively), with another 2 still awaiting modernisation. Construction of the Yasen-class is coming along, but sanctions have started causing delays already.

As such, any lease of a submarine might well mean a gap in Russian capabilities, which they would not easily countenance.

 

[Anant]

If Defence.in says we are likely not getting, it means we are getting soon, like AK-203 article that came in Feb 2024, one of the ordinance factories already started producing them, may be the submarine already left Russia and on it’s way to India.

With what OSINT is these days, chances are we'd know. Regardless, the point remains: Russia doesn't have sufficient numbers of SSNs and SSGNs as it is. Leases would hurt that number even further.

 

[shivkumar sinha]

Don't trust him, then. However, look at the data. Russia has a grand total of 9 Akula-class submarines, of which 5 are in long-term modernisation. Considering how long 2 of them have been going, they are either rebuilding the submarines very extensively, or they are just stuck.

That leaves them with 4 (for now) to 6 (in the medium-term) SSNs. These are still used as hunter-killer boats, and with most of the Oscar-class SSGNs (which also function as hunter-killers occasionally) also either in modernisation or awaiting modernisation, and with the Yasen-class facing delays, any submarine being leased by Russia would quite possibly mean a compromise in Russian capabilities, which they really would not countenance.

Until confrontation between RF and NATO is continued ,it is certainly a challenge for RF to deliver. However,if war is concluded early, Putin may think to find some alternative. Let us see what happens.

 

[Sandeep]

Hold on. Let me put some facts here. A SSN and a SSBN are fundamentally different in their role. You can't substitute a SSN to do what a SSBN does or (generally) vice versa.

That said, even Chakra-III is highly unlikely, for the simple fact that Russia doesn't have sufficient numbers of SSNs and SSGNs. Of their 9 Akula-class boats, 5 are in long-term modernisation, of which 2 may never emerge, considering just how long they have been in dock. Of the 7 Oscar-class SSGNs, 3 are in modernisation (2 of them having been in dock for 4 and 8 years respectively), with another 2 still awaiting modernisation. Construction of the Yasen-class is coming along, but sanctions have started causing delays already.

As such, any lease of a submarine might well mean a gap in Russian capabilities, which they would not easily countenance.

Yes I know that but you can share a lot of technology, knowledge and equipment between a nuclear attack submarine and ballistic submarine. This can cut down on development time.

Also there was a few submarine that were only half completed like the Irbis and its rumoured that they are spending 5 years getting that ready for the next ten years. It only takes over 5 years if you are making it new or heavily upgrading it. All of the others have either been decommissioned or refurbished and upgraded.

 

[Anant]

Yes I know that but you can share a lot of technology, knowledge and equipment between a nuclear attack submarine and ballistic submarine. This can cut down on development time.

Also there was a few submarine that were only half completed like the Irbis and its rumoured that they are spending 5 years getting that ready for the next ten years. It only takes over 5 years if you are making it new or heavily upgrading it. All of the others have either been decommissioned or refurbished and upgraded.

The Iribis is still technically lying unfinished. However, the problem with that is twofold: Firstly, satellite images from 2017 show she has rusted off to an extent. When work on Nerpa was restarted in 2004-05, she was in good shape and didn't have rust or the like. Secondly, completing Nerpa proved to be extremely troublesome in itself, and most of these problems meant she was on bad shape by 2020-21, hence contributing to her early return to Russia and the subsequent decision by the Russians to not re-commission her. Iribis still faces those problems, and is in far worse shape to start off, which precludes most attempts to restart work on her, since you'd essentially have to scrap most of her and build anew, at which point the Russians can just spend that money on a Yasen-class boat.

Coming to the Akula-class as a whole, all 9 boats are either receiving, or have received, the major modernisation. However, 5 of them (Volk, Leopard, Tigr, Samara, and Magadan) still stuck in refit or post-refit trials, and two of them have been in refit for a very long time, with even some Russian officers opining that these boats may never emerge from the yard.

As for commonality between a SSN and. SsBN, yes, you can take the 30% commonality, but that's about it. Beyond that, both are distinct types of ships.

 

[SK]

If Chakra-3 isn't going to happen then I hope that Indian-Govt will invest in Indigenous SSN & SSK projects.

 

[Anant]

If Chakra-3 isn't going to happen then I hope that Indian-Govt will invest in Indigenous SSN & SSK projects.

They already are. Projects 75A and 76 are in advanced stages of design, and it is already planned that there will be 3+3 boats under Project 75A and 6+6 under Project 76.

 

[Anant]

Good, we can manufacture an vikrant class aircraft carriers with that money

That money you refer to has been paid partly, and quite possibly has been redirected to payments of other systems. The rest of it can be sent into Projects 75A or 76.