Opinion Russia's Stalled Arms Sales: Ukraine War Scares Off India, a Top Buyer

Forget those stories about invincible Russian tanks and missiles! The Ukraine war has shown the world that Russia's weapons don't always live up to the hype, and that's causing major problems for Moscow. India, the world's biggest arms importer and Russia's top customer, is hitting the brakes on buying Russian gear in a big way.

Note this: India has spent a whopping $60 billion on Russian tanks, jets, you name it – over the last couple of decades. Now, experts are saying that Russia's struggling to keep up with the demand, and questions about their weapons' quality are swirling. The result? It looks like big changes are ahead for India's massive $100 billion weapons shopping spree.

Why India's Saying "Thanks, But No Thanks" to Russia​

So, why the sudden shift? Here's what insiders are saying:

• Ukraine's Surprising Fight: India, like everyone else, was shocked by how poorly some Russian equipment performed in Ukraine. Suddenly those Russian weapons don't look so invincible anymore.
• Can't Get What They Need: Russia's arms factories are swamped trying to make weapons for its own troops in Ukraine, leaving India waiting in line. Plus, sanctions make it touchy for India to buy anything Russian.
• Time to Make, Not Buy: India's had its eye on building up its own defence industry for a while. The Ukraine mess just makes that goal seem more urgent.
• Keeping America Happy: India's been trying to cozy up to the U.S. lately, and buying loads of Russian weapons isn't exactly a great way to do that.

So, Who's In Line to Land These Big Sales?​

India's got the cash... and other arms makers are ready to pounce. Here's the new pecking order:

• Vive la France! France is stepping into Russia's old shoes. India already bought fancy Rafale jets from them and could buy much more. France seems super willing to share tech and build stuff together with India.
• The Americans Are Trying... They're promising cool engine tech for India's jets, but there's still old baggage between the two countries. Can America build enough trust?
• Don't Count Out Others: Israel, South Korea, even Germany could get some of India's business.

Russia is Not Totally Out​

Here's the thing, India's got a ton of old Russian stuff. They're not going to ditch it all overnight. And, geopolitics is messy – India doesn't want to make enemies by totally dumping Moscow as China gets closer to Russia.

Bottom Line​

Ukraine's fight for survival has totally reshuffled how India buys weapons. That's bad news for Russia, which desperately needs the business, and could be a win for other arms-making nations.

 

[Anant]

Yes I know that but you can share a lot of technology, knowledge and equipment between a nuclear attack submarine and ballistic submarine. This can cut down on development time.

Also there was a few submarine that were only half completed like the Irbis and its rumoured that they are spending 5 years getting that ready for the next ten years. It only takes over 5 years if you are making it new or heavily upgrading it. All of the others have either been decommissioned or refurbished and upgraded.

The Iribis is still technically lying unfinished. However, the problem with that is twofold: Firstly, satellite images from 2017 show she has rusted off to an extent. When work on Nerpa was restarted in 2004-05, she was in good shape and didn't have rust or the like. Secondly, completing Nerpa proved to be extremely troublesome in itself, and most of these problems meant she was on bad shape by 2020-21, hence contributing to her early return to Russia and the subsequent decision by the Russians to not re-commission her. Iribis still faces those problems, and is in far worse shape to start off, which precludes most attempts to restart work on her, since you'd essentially have to scrap most of her and build anew, at which point the Russians can just spend that money on a Yasen-class boat.

Coming to the Akula-class as a whole, all 9 boats are either receiving, or have received, the major modernisation. However, 5 of them (Volk, Leopard, Tigr, Samara, and Magadan) still stuck in refit or post-refit trials, and two of them have been in refit for a very long time, with even some Russian officers opining that these boats may never emerge from the yard.

As for commonality between a SSN and. SsBN, yes, you can take the 30% commonality, but that's about it. Beyond that, both are distinct types of ships.

 

[SK]

If Chakra-3 isn't going to happen then I hope that Indian-Govt will invest in Indigenous SSN & SSK projects.

 

[Anant]

If Chakra-3 isn't going to happen then I hope that Indian-Govt will invest in Indigenous SSN & SSK projects.

They already are. Projects 75A and 76 are in advanced stages of design, and it is already planned that there will be 3+3 boats under Project 75A and 6+6 under Project 76.

 

[Anant]

Good, we can manufacture an vikrant class aircraft carriers with that money

That money you refer to has been paid partly, and quite possibly has been redirected to payments of other systems. The rest of it can be sent into Projects 75A or 76.