Analysis Should IAF Embrace Interim Rafale F4 for Immediate Needs or Await F5 with M88 T-Rex Engine and Loyal Wingman for Next-Gen Combat

The Indian Air Force (IAF), which began operating its fleet of 36 Dassault Rafale fighters in 2020, now faces a significant strategic decision regarding the platform's future.

Planners must choose whether to commit to the soon-available Rafale F4 upgrade for an immediate capability boost or to bypass this interim step and wait for the technologically transformative F5 standard, which is projected to be operational by 2030.

The Immediate Option: The Rafale F4 Standard​

The Rafale F4 represents a substantial, near-term evolution of the current aircraft. This standard, which the French military has already begun to adopt, focuses on enhancing the fighter's data processing and networking capabilities.

Key upgrades include an improved RBE2 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, an advanced Spectra electronic warfare suite, and the integration of new-generation weaponry, such as the Mica NG air-to-air missile and the 1,000 kg AASM "Hammer" precision bomb.

For any air force, the F4 standard provides a marked improvement in situational awareness and combat effectiveness.

The Future Leap: The Next-Generation Rafale F5​

In contrast, the Rafale F5 is being developed by Dassault Aviation as a bridge to sixth-generation air combat.

Scheduled for introduction around the end of this decade, the F5 is envisioned as a "super Rafale" designed to operate in the highly contested airspace of the future.

This standard is defined by two revolutionary features that set it apart from previous versions.

First is the integration of a new, significantly uprated engine, a successor to the current Safran M88. This engine, sometimes referred to as the M88 T-Rex, is expected to deliver higher thrust and greater fuel efficiency, enhancing the Rafale's speed, manoeuvrability, and payload capacity.

The second, and perhaps most critical, feature is the ability to command and control large Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs). This would effectively transform the Rafale F5 into a manned "mothership," capable of directing autonomous "loyal wingman" drones to conduct surveillance, electronic warfare, or saturation strikes without directly exposing the pilot to enemy defences.

The Strategic Dilemma for India​

For the IAF, the F5 standard offers clear long-term advantages. Its induction around 2030 would ensure it remains a technologically superior asset well into the 2040s, complementing India’s own indigenous fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program.

The drone-teaming capability would fundamentally enhance mission survivability and expand the IAF's tactical options, while the more powerful engine would ensure the Rafale remains competitive against advanced stealth aircraft being developed by regional adversaries.

However, opting for the F4 standard presents a potential pitfall. While it provides an earlier upgrade path, it could lock the IAF into a technology that may be considered dated by the time the F5 becomes widely available.

Furthermore, a subsequent upgrade from the F4 to the F5 standard would likely be logistically complex and financially burdensome, potentially involving significant structural and systems modifications.

Given the constraints of India's defence budget and the ongoing push for fleet modernisation, analysts suggest that skipping the F4 upgrade may be the more prudent long-term strategy.

This approach would avoid redundant expenditure on an interim solution and instead channel resources towards acquiring a platform designed specifically for the future of air combat, which will be dominated by networked warfare, artificial intelligence, and manned-unmanned teaming.

 

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[Mc Addy]

France is late , we are too late so either we know that Pakistan and China will be also late in induction of 5th gen stealth then okay , so two to three years is okay ,if French can deliver this 1 squadron F5 super Rafel ,but beyond 3 years ,from now , we will lose air superiory,unless we find ways to detect Chinese Stealth.
I have two suggestions.
1 . Monitor Tibbet Air space to see what can detect this stealth J20 dragon jet whatever from 500km away so put maximum survillance on Tibbet runways as they have a base there .

2. Surely a jet has an exhaust and can be detected in 100 km to 150km range by IRST ,that's infra red search and track modules and some ultra frequency radars, so maybe pay maximum attention to such detection methods now .

 

[Mc Addy]

We must pay attention to detection of stealth jets and UCAvs now ,find ways to get these onto a trackable type matter.

 

[PrasannaBJN]

2 situations. 1. Already our squadron strength is at low. So better to get few F4 std rafaele which is like 50. The delivery for F4 of 50 will surely take 2 to 3 years if deal is signed this year. Till then we can also induct Tejas mark 1 and 2 in large numbers.

By that time f5 will be in some stage and we can go for f5 standard. This will address both dwindling numbers and get air superiority as well . So Su 57 few numbers, F4 some numbers, Tejas some good numbers and also f5 some numbers along with Amca(atleast we would be in some stage)

 

[sanket]

F5. That’s what exactly I am saying for several times. Go for the F5 version Rafale instead of the F4. It is upgraded with a GaN-based AESA radar, UCAV, and the M-88 TREX engine with higher thrust, plus an upgrade in the weapon package too. Secondly, because even if a G2G is signed a couple of years from now, considering the negotiation time, it will take 3 to 5 years to set up an assembly and roll out the first Rafale from that. The timeline will match the rollout of the F5 by 2032. Better keep the assembly line ready for the F5 version Rafale with a production rate of 18 to 24 per year, with Dassault having a full order book of more than 200 plus.

 

[Hari Sud]

Wait for F5 engine. Pakistan has been beaten that they will take 5 years to recover and rearm. Until then upgraded S030MK1 is more than sufficient.

 

[tipoo2]

The basis of this article seems a little off when the F-4 has a clean upgrade path to the F-5, by the time they'll be nearing the first engine swap anyway. We can't wait until 2030 to order something, please. Order now, start deliveries as soon as possible, and upgrade when available. Or we'll be sitting here in 2030 with 10 squadrons against China and Pakistan.

 

[Alok Gupta]

If the IAF seals the deal for the F4 variant this year, it will be at least 2029 before they can start receiving the first plane. If the F5 is only one year away and the IAF places the orders now, then it is very possible that the IAF could be the first customer of these jets. With some money infusion from IAF, it may be possible to accelerate the development of the F5 variant and include some customisation from the beginning.

 

[Mc Addy]

No body will attack us ,unless we provide an excuse of mega proportion . Pakistan is a problem but not beyond reach of army ,Navy and Air force in any way, once it launched stealth ,then cold start doctrine will shrred it under 12 hours to pieces, that's why we have ballistic missiles, Submarines that can launch second strike type missiles and much more. China maximum can go into Jand K and Arunachal but it don't have that much manpower over such vast strech of land that it can sustain that occupation for few years otherwise it would have gone for us . So if stealth by France is possible in next 3 to 4 years ,get atleast a squadron, rest Rafael ect , fly them on China border with Tibbet ,to see if they can detect and lock Chinese J20.

 

[Mc Addy]

Don't do too much hype on stealth as had it been the case Ukraine or Russia would have gotten, what they wanted . This is a useless topic basically but of scientific intrest and yes, third world countries like Burkina Faso might need stealth also .

 

[Shafted mohammed]

Go for 300 Tejas MK2 as Rafale could not shoot down a single Pakistani plane. It is an overpriced white elephant. Instead of these useless expensive planes buy just 60 SU-57E, make 300 Tejas MK1 and MK2, and 200 AMCA to have 60 squadrons.

 

[Lucas Johansson]

Choosing Rafale for MRFA is already a costly idea. If you choose F5 over F4, there will be a delay (as Rafale corporation is nothing but a Western HAL), and the cost will be so high. It can drain out years of IAF's budget. So, if you want Rafale, go for it now; do not delay the MRFA programme.

 

[PierreA]

This paper is not developing the right aspects of what Standard F5 will be, and thus, it does not make for sound thinking about the choice proposed.

Engine and radar upgrades will be real and significant, but they will not radically change what the Rafale can do. A better engine will extend range, especially, but engines can probably be fitted in older aircraft even if they're not Standard F5.

However, Standard F5 promises two real, game-changing evolutions:

1. the ability to operate France's future nuclear-capable cruise missile, which is much bigger and has a longer range than ASMP-A, and is probably hypersonic. This is a major issue for France, but it does not concern India, because France would never export a nuclear missile, and even less so the warhead to go into it.
2. the ability to operate a slave UCAV, roughly described as a "loyal wingman," but actually based on the much more advanced nEUROn, whose extreme stealth levels have been long confirmed, and which should serve primarily in an attack/SEAD role, with an air-to-air role possible but not yet confirmed.

So... one may rush to say: "Oh, but we want the UCAV as well, so F5 it must be!"
And that, in my honest opinion, would be a serious mistake.

First, because if you wait for the UCAV, you'll make the IAF wait for much-needed aircraft for at least another decade, which is not sound.
Second, because the UCAV is planned to be extremely advanced, and thus it will be expensive, and since you'll need both the aircraft and the UCAV, this will add up to make a very steep financial cliff to climb.
Third, adopting the UCAV will not be a trivial matter for the IAF; it will demand significant learning, a change in doctrine, adaptation of logistic chains, infrastructure construction, etc. Thus, it will not allow for fast operationalisation.

If you order Standard F4 now, two squadrons can roll out of French factories by 2030 or so, maybe sooner, as Dassault has been preparing to open a new assembly line dedicated to Indian needs. And during this time, Indian-based production can be set up so as to kick in and produce the rest of the order. Then, for the future, India would find itself capable of producing Standard F5 at home if desired.

But if you wait for Standard F5, the extent of all investments and efforts to be made before you can benefit from the ability to operate an advanced combat drone from the newly built Rafale will impose further delays and obstacles that will push the operationalisation of those technological advances so far that you cannot predict now how long it will be.

If you cannot plan and predict it yet, then don't go for it. Wait for the fog to clear, and in the meantime, go for what's good now.

 

[मित्र]

Better option was to select Su-57 with AL-51, ToT and local production. Total 6 sqds.
But as India will develop a new engine with France, so hopefully some strings are attached like India will buy Rafale.
So, split it in half for both.

Su-57 already provides better stealth, payload, range, avionics, weapon package, more ToT, MUMT, and full support for indigenous weapon integration. And production can be started in a much shorter timeframe.

Some Western clowns will reply like Su-57 is bad, worst, junk, non-stealthy, blah blah. Let them live in their Western propaganda utopia.

 

[priyanshu3657]

France is late , we are too late so either we know that Pakistan and China will be also late in induction of 5th gen stealth then okay , so two to three years is okay ,if French can deliver this 1 squadron F5 super Rafel ,but beyond 3 years ,from now , we will lose air superiory,unless we find ways to detect Chinese Stealth.
I have two suggestions.
1 . Monitor Tibbet Air space to see what can detect this stealth J20 dragon jet whatever from 500km away so put maximum survillance on Tibbet runways as they have a base there .

2. Surely a jet has an exhaust and can be detected in 100 km to 150km range by IRST ,that's infra red search and track modules and some ultra frequency radars, so maybe pay maximum attention to such detection methods now .

We already have many ways to detect stealth jets

 

[Krishna]

At least 36 F-4s off the shelf and the remaining 78 F-5s indigenously built in India is the solution for the present and future needs of India.

 

[Mayank Shukla]

Give 22 B $ to Russia they will give you everything you want Su 57, S 500, AL51.

Double the number in same price!

 

[Madan]

Why only discuss Rafale ? A plane with strings in milking French hands. Do our country needs a toy with strings in somebody else's hand? Why not SU 57 in half a price of Rafale with full TOT, local manufacturing and full source codes? Give a serious thought. Don't be over obsessive of Rafale.

 

[Marcus]

Currently, India has only 31 squadrons by the end of this month, and by the next, another 2 squadrons of Mig 21 will also be phased out, which will leave only 29 squadrons with the Indian Air Force. The designated strength is 42 squadrons, a benchmark set in the 1980s for the Indian Air Force for a simultaneous two-front war.

India needs at least 10-12 squadrons of Rafale along with another 10 squadrons of Tejas Mark 1 and Mark 2 versions of it by 2035 until the AMCA 5+ generation with the wingman concept is fully developed.

By then, both the USA and China will have a greater advantage in the aerial domain with many squadrons of 6th-generation fighter jets. More investment and codevelopment are needed for the Kaveri engine so as to fast-track India's fighter jet squadrons.

 

[Pithoria-1234]

A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Get the F4 version fast. Already squadron strength is down. There are very few options left. We should speed pour money on our AMCA ,Tejas-2 and the twin engine deck based fighter. Coupled with it is the indigenous development of the engine which is pivotal. Indigenous Astra 3, Brahmos NG,Rudram needs to be configured to these platforms.

 

[Benith Israel]

Boss, if you are going for F5, then guess who will foot the development bill, especially of the M-88 Tex engine. The current 36 Rafale will need to be replaced earlier since upgrading them to F5 might be impossible, especially due to the engine.

 

[Leo red]

Russia Ukraine war proved that not air force but missiles and drones are useful in long term and 3 days war with Pakistan has shown complete blow of weapons storage air field as well as clearing up AWACS by missiles. So priority should be given to missile force. Stealth fighters are batter choice by learning from Israel. Rafale useless considering of any down in pak war. Su57 su30 mig29 are king maker. Brahmos and s400 Aakash ruler the war.

 

[Sridhar]

Go for F-15. IAF can meanwhile focus on SU-30 MKI upgrades. Simultaneously, look at going in for 2 squadrons of SU-57 (now that the F-35 is ruled out). By that time, TEJAS MK 1A will also see induction into the IAF. Hopefully, Project Kusha by 2030 will become operational. So, the IAF has options.

 

[SandeepGupta]

Spendthrift 2 lac crore deal for just 6 Squadrons. additionally they want to buy 60 Su 57E for 25000 Crore so 9 Squadrons for 2.25 Lac Crore. The IAF has gone made by purchasing kabad of France at exorbitant prices. instead India should buy 500 Mig 35 and 300 Su 57M1 and 300 Old Refurbished Eurofighter Tranche 2 & 3 with Captor AESA and Pirate IRST for 4 lac Crore. India will get 100% ToT of the three planes with Indo-Israel & German U.K. Avionics and armaments and 100% ToT of Eurojet EJ 200 and Klimov RD 33 Engines and 50% AL51F1 Engines which will be better than French RBE2 Radar and Spectra deal