Thailand Seeks New Fighter Jets, India Enters the Fray

The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) has signaled its determination to modernize its capabilities with the release of its 2024 White Paper.

This comprehensive strategy document highlights a major focus on replacing its aging fighter jet fleets, alongside the acquisition of UAVs and advanced missile systems.

Thailand's plan to seek bids from a diverse mix of arms exporters – including the United States, China, Russia, and India – underscores the nation's desire for strategic flexibility and highlights a complex landscape of geopolitical considerations.

Geopolitical Balancing Act​

Thailand's openness to a wide range of bidders reflects both practical requirements and its delicate positioning within Southeast Asia's geopolitical landscape.

The RTAF's existing fleet of US-made F-16s and Swedish Gripens indicates a need for interoperability, which could favor updated models of these aircraft.

However, Thailand's history of defence procurements from China, including a recent submarine purchase (however cancelled later), complicates potential collaboration with the United States.

Past US refusals to supply Thailand with advanced weaponry like the F-35A could push the RTAF to diversify suppliers further.

India's Ambitions​

India's inclusion as a potential fighter jet provider is noteworthy. Whether India proposes the existing Tejas Mk1A or the more advanced Tejas MkII, its participation marks a growing ambition to establish itself as a significant player in the global arms market.

Success in securing a deal with Thailand could open doors for further defence cooperation within Southeast Asia, an area where India aims to increase its influence.

The Procurement Plan​

The RTAF's fighter jet replacement is a two-phase endeavor:

• Phase I: Thailand seeks 12-14 advanced jets by 2028 to replace its oldest F-16A/B models. The urgency suggests a need for interoperability and familiarity, potentially favoring Western options.
• Phase II: Another 12-14 fighters are planned for procurement from 2031, to retire the even older F-5 fleet. This longer timeframe may allow for the consideration of more experimental or newer-generation jets.

The Path Forward​

The Royal Thai Air Force faces a complex decision with far-reaching consequences. The chosen fighter jets will shape its combat capabilities for decades.

Beyond technical specifications, Thailand's choice will likely be influenced by the strategic partnerships built around such major arms deals.

This procurement becomes a window into Thailand's evolving defence doctrine and how it navigates a geopolitical landscape where aligning with one major power can have implications for its relationships with others.

 

[Pink Panther]

Yes Philippines will like the jets in the order mentioned in the title, so Tejas has very less chance, moreover US has bases there, so it would force Philippines to buy F16 only. China and Philippines are in logger-heads for the past few months, there are even some death to Navy men., so Chinese jet is ruled out.

 

[Radha Ramanan]

does not make sense at all , they just want to know the secrets of the lca. They already operate the swedish gripen that is superior to the LCA in all manners in its present state. The only the LCA mk2 can cope with the gripen.

 

[Ramsses CDXX]

Since they operate F-16 A/B MLU, better they buy F-16 Block 70 M-MRCA. It packs more bang per buck 💥💸 over any SEFs. Upgrade the rest to Block 70 standards.

 

[Anant]

1. Considering that Thailand already operates the Gripen and the F-16, and given their tight budgets, they would be much better going for those types rather than trying to get aircraft from India or Russia or (God forbid) China.
2. This replacement schedule, if correct, is very interesting in certain aspects. The RTAF has 50 F-16s and 33 F-5s as per World Air Forces 2024, and if you refer to The Military Balance 2024, that report puts 50 F-16s and some 25 F-5s (WAF adds up aircraft in storage as well). As such, 12-14 aircraft each to replace even the bulk of both these fleets is a very small number. In fact, there is the case to be made that these 75 aircraft would have to be replaced with, at a minimum, 60-65 aircraft to maintain the RTAF's minimum required strength of 100 fighters (6 squadrons plus 4 reserves). Even if one were to assume 14 aircraft each are procured and 60% of the older fleets are replaced in both cases, that would leave the RTAF with exactly 100 aircraft, but with a large number of aircraft types.

Then again, this gradual slicing of the Thai Armed Forces is no surprise. The governments in Thailand are in a spiraling race to the bottom to see who can cut the Armed Forces down to a point where they don't collapse but they are also utterly incapable of defending the nation.

As for China, well, Thailand has purchased a lot of equipment from China, and they have seen the problems of this "cheapest stuff please" nonsense. They purchased four Chao Praya-class and two Naresuan-class frigates from China (the latter being a Chinese design with Western powerplant, sensors, and weapons). All these ships were found to be shoddily built with basically little to no damage control equipment, and the Thai Navy had to rebuild each ship to ensure it didn't randomly sink the moment it caught fire or a large wave. They also purchased a Type 071 LPD, and while the ship only entered service last year, there are reports that her performance has been somewhat below-par.

On top of all that, they planned to buy 3 Type 039A submarines from China, and ordered the first one. However, the Germans refused to provide the powerplant for the submarine, and the Thai Navy rejected a Chinese alternative, indefinitely postponing the submarine acquisition. They planned to purchase an extra frigate instead, buy funding for even that was rejected just a few days back. The Thai Navy is, to a large extent, an aging and very unbalanced force that has white elephants like their helicopter carrier and yet doesn't have a decent number of good surface warships.

It seems the Thai Air Force now wants to follow suit. They can go for cheap Chinese aircraft if they so wish, but Gripens and/or F-16s would be a much better (though slightly more expensive) route to take.

 

[Anant]

Since they operate F-16 A/B MLU, better they buy F-16 Block 70 M-MRCA. It packs more bang per buck 💥💸 over any SEFs. Upgrade the rest to Block 70 standards.

They can't afford those. Thailand has a defence budget of around 5.52 billion USD this year. Governments in Thailand have this ongoing race to see who can cut down the Armed Forces to a point where they are incapable of defending the nation but still ensure they don't collapse.

The F-16V costs around 120 to 140 million USD each. Even purchasing 12 of them would mean a cost between 1.5 and 1.7 billion dollars, which is beyond what the RTAF can afford. Their budget for 2024-25 is just over 1 billion dollars.

No, if they go for F-16s, chances are these will be refurbished Block 50 or Block 60 F-16s.

 

[abhinav srivastava]

Given their time lines LCA MK1A would be offered. LCA MK2 may not enter production before 2030.

 

[NSR]

HAL, do not even bother about Thailand contract at all.
F-16 Block XX will win hands down no matter what other companies offer.
USA will not let it go by any means at all.

 

[ABHIJIT APSINGIKAR]

Time to wake up smell the coffee. Tejas MK2 does not exist. Even its prototype is scheduled to be produced in 2025 and it would start trials in 2027 and then it would take another 5--7 years before it is complete. That means flight testing would last till 2033-35 after which assuming a contract is signed immediately, the lead time worldwide for organizing production setup and setting assembly lines is 3-3.5 years. Which essentially means that we are unlikely to see a production version of LCA MK2 until 2036-38, even going by an optimistic scenario.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

0 chance for Indian jet. Thailand will go for chinese jet. Thailand is too dependent on chinese tourism money and investment. It will never rism antagonising china by buying indian jet

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Thailand is in lap of china. It will go for Chinese fighter. There is 0 chance of India getting contract. Thailand is heavily dependent on chinese tourism and investment. It will never rism antagonising china by going for indian jet.

 

[ABHIJIT APSINGIKAR]

Time to wake up smell the coffee. Tejas MK2 does not exist. Even its prototype is scheduled to be produced in 2025 and it would start trials in 2027 and then it would take another 5--7 years before it is complete. That means flight testing would last till 2033-35 after which assuming a contract is signed immediately, the lead time worldwide for organizing production setup and setting assembly lines is 3-3.5 years. Which essentially means that we are unlikely to see a production version of LCA MK2 until 2036-38, even going by an optimistic scenario.

U can fast-track as much as u want but that's the most optimistic timeline that I have given, assuming everything works optimally during development. Thats the least amount of time it would take to put LCA MK2 into production, assuming they work most proficiently and deliver the most exceptional results. Of course, the reality of HAL suggests otherwise.

 

[ABHIJIT APSINGIKAR]

Given their time lines LCA MK1A would be offered. LCA MK2 may not enter production before 2030.

Make that at least 2035-38 before it enters production. The flight trials themselves are scheduled for 2027 and it needs to clear the flight test regime which itself lasts for about 5-7 years.

 

[Sandeep]

India should definitely advertise the Tejas jet and its capabilities and offer the Tejas MK1A version as its the most advanced type. There is also a strong chance that we can get selected if they are looking for a light jet with, low operating costs, low maintenance costs, low maintenance time, easy and quick servicing with a large variety of combat capabilities and the missiles or bombs it can use.

The Tejas MK1A is a 4.5th generation jet which has many hard points, AESA radar, EW, fly by wire, indigenous jet computer, night vision etc with most of it developed indigenously. Although the jet appears to be too small it still has a lethal capability and the small size can be a bonus as it reduces the radar cross section, uses a high amount of composite materials than most other jets and if we applied radar absorbing paint then it can give it some stealth characteristics which go in our favour. India should hire a existing advertising agency in Thailand who can promote and advertise the jet to improve its chance of winning and we need to secure export orders.

Currently with sanctions on Russia its highly unlikely that Thailand will pick them. Currently with poor quality, unreliable, faulty weapons from China will put them off from buying more of their junk including the junk fighter jet. With the USA they won't want to risk selling anything that gives away the F16 jets strength or weaknesses away or any other advanced technology and equipment that's used on it which is the same with other weapons and systems like SAM, certain radars, armoured vehicles etc. There is also a danger that China might try to obtain classified information, equipment, parts and other capabilities of the USA jet or any other advanced technology like SAM. This gives India a ideal opportunity and we shouldn't waste it at all. We should also offer incentives to receive the deal like giving no or low interest payment schedule or delayed payment, offer some subsidies or setup a MRO facility that can cater to the Tejas jet and previous Russian jets still in use.

 

[Anant]

0 chance for Indian jet. Thailand will go for chinese jet. Thailand is too dependent on chinese tourism money and investment. It will never rism antagonising china by buying indian jet

Well, India doesn't have a chance here, but when it comes to China, Thailand has a mixed history.

On one hand, Chinese aircraft will almost certainly be the cheapest among the four nations mentioned here. That does mean that with Thailand's ever-shrinking military budget and increasingly obsolescent Armed Forces, they can get more Chinese aircraft, thereby atleast keeping overall numbers up.

On the other hand, Thailand has historically had a bad experience with Chinese equipment. They purchased six frigates from China (a class of four China frigates and a class of two ships built in China with entirely Western equipment). They soon realised that although these frigates had been far cheaper, they were very shoddily built and almost completely lacked damage control equipment (to the point where it was felt a particularly heavy sea could sink these ships). The Royal Thai Navy (RTN) then spent a fair bit of money rectifying these issues, which was also why they went to South Korea for their next (and to date most modern) frigate.

Secondly, they purchased a Type 071 LPD, which was commissioned last year. There are reports which suggest that this ship hasn't exactly performed as well as expected so far.

There is also the matter of Thailand's submarine purchase. They planned to buy three Type 039A derivatives from China, but when Germany refused to export the powerplants for these submarines to China (rightly fearing the Chinese would promptly reverse engineer and copy them), the Chinese offered their own powerplant, which the RTN rejected. The submarine purchase was postponed indefinitely, and the RTN decided to purchase a new frigate wuth the funds. In this year's budget, this new proposal was rejected.

The RTN has learnt the hard way that Chinese ships have more than their fair share of problems. Of course, the RTAF should learn from this. Then again, financial constraints may not allow them to do so.

Regardless, they would be best suited to go and purchase F-16 Block 50/60s or Gripens, since that would allow them to streamline their aircraft types. Sweden may soon be retiring some of their older Gripen Cs as these are replaced by Gripen Es. Thailand can get these or second-hand F-16s on the cheap.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Chinese aircraft will almost certainly be the cheapest among the four nations mentioned here. That does mean that with Thailand's ever-shrinking military budget and increasingly obsolescent Armed Forces, they can get more Chinese aircraft, thereby atleast keeping overall numbers up.

yes they would be more suited to buy american, swedish or indian jets, But they will buy chinese jets in the end. Geopolitics is the biggest factor of thailand. Thailand has no real enemies. it is allies with both china and america. Number 1 priority for thailand is not security but financial. Recently thailand waived off visa requirement for chinese tourists because after covid tourism in thailand suffered. Because of this change, chinese tourists are thronging thailand. Thai economy is heavily dependent on China. I believe china will leverage this to force thailand to buy its jets.

 

[amerjit johal]

I doubt Thailand will even consider Tejas

1. Refurbed F16
2. Gripen
3. FA 50

 

[ABHIJIT APSINGIKAR]

U can fast-track as much as u want but that's the most optimistic timeline that I have given, assuming everything works optimally during development. Thats the least amount of time it would take to put LCA MK2 into production, assuming they work most proficiently and deliver the most exceptional results. Of course, the reality of HAL suggests otherwise.

But I assure we wont. Unlike India's DRDO, Turkey has adopted a more pragmatic, incremental and realistic approach to systems development. They have followed a realistic, achievable program management approach that emphasizes swift development and subsequent testing and production of airframe.

Here our DRDO thinks that until they can develop 100% of subsystems domestically, they can keep deferring the production and induction of the aircraft. Thus its quite common for us to have a design phase that can last for more than half a decade and testing prototype itself can last anywhere from 5-10 years.

 

[Rational Guy]

They will either buy Chinese or US platform

 

[Avada kedavra]

Russia? 🤣
Ever since the start of the ukraine war even neutral states like Serbia Indonesia Malaysia and even india have started rejecting Russian junk.
Don't think now any nations except for the likes of iran, north Korea Eritrea Venezuela myanmar somalia or any other basket case types will buy Russian junk.

 

[Thailand of smile]

You guys don't misunderstand that Thailand is China's subordinate, which is not true. Thailand doesn't want to be an enemy of any superpower. We like American and European technology more, but with the value for money spent, there are few choices. We want to buy F35, but America won't sell it because they are afraid of technology leaks. We understand that. So Thailand didn't buy it, but America suggested F16 Block 70 instead, which is not worth it compared to Gripen because the US gives very few options. The US reasoned that some technology is not necessary for Thailand. But now it has been confirmed that we chose Gripen E/F, and we don't like China. Our people love the US, but we choose freedom. So the news came out saying that we love China, which is very stupid.

 

[Thailand of smile]

As for Chinese aircraft, they are not in Thailand's sight at all. They are the worst. Chinese ones are cheap but have no quality.